1. CIA meeting Group Hot Topics SOA 2005 Waiver Table

2. Is the US different then Canada?
Most but not all Canadian group waiver based on LTD definition
US Disability covered population lower then Canada as a proportion of population insured
US can still exclude Mental and Nervous disorder
9 month elimination period

3. Is Kreiger out of date? Based on 1970’s at that time:
Workforce had much higher male participation compared to women (15% F in Krieger versus 40% currently)
Overall work was harder and population health during working life time worst.
Overall mortality has improved substantially since 1970’s
Medical interventions improved.
Etc.

4. First impressions SOA 2005
Compared to ~Krieger basic (now sex distinct!) A/E
Total select ultimate
Death 56% 59% 53%
Recovery 102% 98% 174%
Reserve 60% 62% 61%
Ratio female to male death rate
Select period 72%, higher at older ages
Ulitmate period 79%
Termination rates lower than Canadian experience

5. Comparing a few tables Block of ~50,000 lives
592 currently open waiver reserves
Reserve 5%
res (mil) exp Death
Kreiger Basic
SOA
Muirhead Table

8. Conclusion Kreiger no longer relevant for Canada
SOA 2005 still does not reflect Canadian data
Muirhead table closest to Canadian population
Need to adjust valuation and pricing models for current waiver risk!