1. Public opinion and political socialization
Chapter 5
Public opinion and political socialization

3. Public Opinion
Public opinion about the death penalty a good example of how opinions affect policymaking
Opinions about a given government policy can change over time, often dramatically
Public opinion places boundaries on allowable types of public policies
If asked, citizens will give opinions about matters with which they have experience
Governments tend to respond to public opinion
The government sometimes does not do what people want

4. The Death Chamber

5. Taking the Public Pulse

6. Public Opinion and Models of Democracy
Opinion polling dates from the 1930s
Not a powerful research tool until computers invented in 1950s
Founders built public opinion into structure of government by allowing direct election of representatives to the House and apportioning representation there by population

7. Sampling a Few, Predicting to Everyone
Statistical theory of sampling holds that a sample of a population selected by chance is representative of that population
Three factors affect accuracy of sample:
Must be chosen randomly
Larger samples more accurate
Greater variation in population means greater chance for differences in ability to predict

8. Accurate Polling
Most national opinion polling organizations poll 1,500 individuals
Accurate within 3 percentage points 95% of the time
Even this small margin of error can mean incorrect predictions in close elections
Polls can be wrong because of biased question wording or superficial responses
Look at current polls:

9. Public Opinion and Democracy
Majoritarian model of democracy holds government should do what a majority of the people want
Around 70% of Americans think majority opinion should have a great deal of influence on politicians
Pluralist model of democracy believes democracy requires free expression of opinions by minority groups
Public as a whole rarely demonstrates clear, consistent opinions

10. Public Opinion and Democracy
Difficult to see U.S. as democratic under majoritarian model
Bills passed in Congress or state legislatures do not always reflect public opinion
Supreme Court decisions sometimes go against majority opinion
Majoritarian model assumes clear, consistent public opinion about public policies
Pluralist model sees public uninformed and ambivalent about specific issues

11. Gallup Poll Accuracy

12. Stop the Presses! Oops, Too Late….

13. The Distribution of Public Opinion
To understand and act on public opinion, government must understand how it is distributed
Distribution of public opinion falls into three patterns:
Skewed
Bimodal
Normal

14. Figure 5.2 Three Distributions of Opinion

15. Distribution Models for Public Opinion
Description of public opinion results depends on mode, or most frequent response
Skewed distributions have most respondents with one opinion
Bimodal distributions have two answers chosen with about equal frequency
Normal distributions are bell-shaped along a continuum, requiring a moderate approach to policymaking

16. Stability of the Distribution
Stable distributions have little change over time
When same question produces different responses over time, public opinion has shifted
When different questions on same issue produce similar results, underlying attitudes stable

17. Ideological Distributions
Since 1964, ideologies have been skewed towards conservatism
Since 1992, slightly more conservatives and fewer moderates
Changes in subgroups, such as college students, may not be reflected in general population
Opinions about controversial issues can change dramatically over time

18. Figure 5.3 Are Students More Conservative Than Their Parents?

19. Political Socialization
Values acquired through political socialization
Most people exposed to same sources of influence, or agents of socialization
Family
School
Community
Peers
The media

20. The Agents of Early Socialization
Fundamental principles of early learning:
The primacy principle
The structuring principle
The extent of any socializing agent depends on our exposure to it, communication with it, and receptivity to it

21. Family and School
Important agent of socialization, because most people learn first from family
Learn wide range of values
If parents interested, learn to be politically interested and informed
If both parents identify with one political party, kids tend to also identify with it
Religion stronger socialization than party because of regular activities

22. School
Some believe schools have equal or greater influence on political learning as parents
Elementary schools teach kids about nation’s slogans and symbols, norms of group behavior, and democratic decision making
In high school, kids learn to distinguish between political leaders and political institutions, about being a “good citizen,” and an awareness of the political process
College courses may teach students to question dominant political values and stimulate critical thinking

23. Community and Peers
Community makeup determines how political opinions of members formed
Homogeneous communities exert strong pressures to conform
Peer groups sometimes can provide defense against community pressures
Adolescent and college peer groups against parental opinion

24. Bearing Global Warming

25. Continuing Socialization
Political socialization a lifelong process
Adults rely more on peer groups and the media for political information
Adults gain perspective on government as they grow older

26. Word of God?

27. Social Groups and Political Values
Each person’s political socialization unique
However, people with similar backgrounds tend to have similar political opinions
Questions from the 2008 National Election Study (ANES) about abortion and the government guaranteeing employment good illustration
Check out your views:

28. Figure 5.4 How Groups Differ on Two Questions of Order and Equality

29. Education
Education increases awareness and understanding of political issues
With regard to abortion, college-educated individuals tend to choose personal freedom over social order
With regard to government programs to reduce income inequality, those with more education tend to choose personal freedom over equality

30. Income Most Americans consider themselves to be “middle class”
Wealth linked to opinions favoring a limited government role in promoting equality, somewhat less with order
Groups with more income and higher education value freedom

31. Region
Historically, regional differences in political opinion important
Fed by differences in wealth
Today, those in the South and Northwest more likely to favor restricting abortion
Those in the Northeast and West more supportive of government programs for income equalization

32. Race and Ethnicity
Historically, those of different races and ethnicities have tended to differ in their political values
Immigrants in late 1800s and early 1900s tended to favor Democratic party
African-Americans initially Republican, but later Democratic
Today, minorities tend to have similar attitudes on equality issues

33. Religion Religious makeup of the U.S. fairly stable since 1940s
Today, population 56% Protestant, 22% Catholic, 13% profess no religion, and less than 2% Jewish (among 9% “other”)
Religious beliefs tend to affect attitudes about social order
Look at attitudes about abortion, death penalty, gay marriage, stem cell research, human cloning, and the teaching of evolution or creationism

34. Gender Men and women differ on many social and political issues
Look at abortion, affirmative action, government spending on social programs, death penalty, and going to war
“Gender gap” means women tend to favor Democrats

35. Gender

36. The Degree of Ideological Thinking in Public Opinion
Some believe terms liberal and conservative no longer adequate
However, political analysis requires categories
Most people don’t think of themselves in ideological terms

37. The Quality of Ideological Thinking in Public Opinion
Differences in liberals and conservatives used to be based on opinions about the role of government
Today, liberals associated with change and conservatives with tradition
Liberals more likely to trade freedom for equality
Conservatives more likely to trade freedom for order

38. Ideological Types in The U.S.
People’s preferences for government action depend on what the action targets
Poll respondents do not always categorize themselves the same way their responses do
Ideological tendencies reflect differences between different social groups

39. Figure 5.5 Respondents Classified by Ideological Tendencies

41. Forming Political Opinions
Studies show at least half of Americans knowledgeable about government and politics
Some groups much less knowledgeable
No ideological distinctions
Most people know if a policy will directly help or hurt them
Self-interest principle
Some use decision making “short cuts”

42. Political Leadership
Public opinion on specific issues affected by public perception of political leaders
Politicians make arguments based on shared ideology and self-interest
Issue framing or “spin”
Politicians’ ability to influence public opinion enhanced by growth of broadcast media