1. NS4053 Fall Term 2013 Energy Security Forecast MAJ Chris Miller

2. US Energy Security
How might changes in energy markets affect US foreign policy?
What are the relevant trends?
Gradual economic recovery/growth
Growing energy industry
What are the game changers?
Shale
New pipelines
Potential outcomes?
US retraction vs smaller footprint

3. US Energy Security Today
BLUF: US still heavily reliant upon imported energy
Since 1973:
Production is up
Consumption is up
Efficiency is up
Energy diversification continues to rise
Shale products entering market
Energy institutions in place

4. Middle East Today Arabian monarchies remain most reliable producers
OPEC likely to remain key influencer in energy markets (short-term)
Iraqi oil industry back to pre-war production levels
Increasingly autonomous Kurdish regions preparing for production
Iran emerging from sanctions to boost energy production
Turkish reliance on Russian / Iranian energy
MENA economies battered by Arab Spring

5. Europe Today
Russian energy dominates Central / Easter European energy markets
Turkey
Ukraine
Germany
Poland
UK (coal)

6. Global Energy Today
Americas approaching self-sufficiency and export status
Canada, US, Mexico, Brazil
Chinese / Indian consumption growing and reliant on Persian Gulf and bad African investments
Nuclear development underway
Renewables aid in diversification
Global Strategic Reserves
Shale optimal when gas prices are high

7. Middle East Tomorrow Arabian oil production increase
OPEC challenged by shale
Iraqi production peak by 2020
Kurdish oil to Turkey?
Iranian oil to Turkey? (post-sanction normalization)
Eastern Med energy basin
Jordanian shale? (Still waiting for that one)
MENA recovery from Arab Spring is just around the corner, right?

8. Europe Tomorrow
Energy imports diversified among Russia, Americas, MENA
American competition with Russia
Polish shale
Increased Turkish security

9. Energy Tomorrow Americas expands to Australia
Chinese / Indian consumption still growing
Rise of Indian Ocean / SE Asian economy
Nuclear power improvements
Renewables and Efficiency on global scale
Global Strategic Reserves
Effects of shale on global prices?

10. Energy Tomorrow