1. 2010 Census Report Guide

2. Interpreting the numbers
Objective – to look at all groups/districts/counties and identify their individual needs
All Groups/districts are individual can’t compare unless normalised (ie looking at each individual history and drawing conclusions based on individual trends) –not comparing to other groups in the same county or district.
Use census results to look at underlying trends in following areas…
Actual numbers over 10 years
Trend over 10 years
Year on Year trends
% of females
Numbers per group
Retention / attrition between sections
Each Pack has the following pages….
Overall District / County / Regional Summary sheet with all the tables and graphs
A similar statistic sheet for each County / District / Group etc within the District / County / Region
A summary sheet which details all the RAG statuses for category and group / district / county etc with an overall RAG based on number of green / Amber and red statuses
A sectional summary for ACC’s or ADCs to look at trends in their section – this includes a Leaders (sectional leaders and assistants) and Adults (commissioners, fellowship activity instructors, administrators etc)

3. Understanding the tables
Year of Census
Census
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
Beavers
137
139
153
144
129
138
143
170
Cubs
147
149
142
150
152
185
205
Scouts
111
118
134
145
140
146
128
130
160
Explorers (inc VS) 58 51 36 29 35 37 33 19 23 28
Network
Total Youth
453
457
465
469
450
436
439
503
563
Leaders 91 90 94 92 88 96
104
Other Adults 13 5 11 18 34 25 9
Total Membership
557
553
566
577
589
579
558
555
624
676
No Of Groups 12 14 15
Sections
Explorer numbers before 2004 include
Venture Scout numbers – These are NOT
Included in Network figures
Sectional Leaders &
Sectional Assistants
Does not include
Network registered elsewhere
No of groups registered
(this can include dormant groups
if not officially closed)
Other adults – Includes Commissioners, Activity iIstructors, Administrators, Scout Active Support, Fellowship etc

4. Interpreting the numbers – RAG Statuses
RAG status are showing significant changes in trend (ie the following statistics)
Greater than the mean (over last 10 years) – GREEN (ie statistic higher than average over last 10 years)
Greater than the mean minus 1 standard deviation – GREEN (ie statistic lower than average but not a significant change)
Greater than mean minus 2 standard deviations – AMBER (within 95% of the statistics over the last 10 years but approaching the threshold for a significant change)
Less than the mean minus 2 standard deviations – RED (ie statistic falls outside the 95% confidence interval and hence a significant change from last 10 years) 2
stdev 1
stdev
Mean
< Mean – 2 St dev
Over last 10 years
Over last 10 years
Mean – 1 stdev
<=
< Mean – 1 St dev
Over last 10 years
>=
Mean
Over last 10 years
1 std
Deviation
2 std
Deviation

5. Example - Interpreting the 10 year figures
This table should be used in conjunction with the change over time table
Table displays actual numbers since 2001 – the volume over time graphs display this graphically
Census
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
Beavers
137
139
153
144
129
138
143
170
Cubs
147
149
142
150
152
185
205
Scouts
111
118
134
145
140
146
128
130
160
Explorers (inc VS) 58 51 36 29 35 37 33 19 23 28
Network
Total Youth
453
457
465
469
450
436
439
503
563
Leaders 91 90 94 92 88 96
104
Other Adults 13 5 11 18 34 25 9
Total Membership
557
553
566
577
589
579
558
555
624
676
No Of Groups 12 14 15
Total Youth Figures are reducing but still green so not yet significant
Scout Figures have been dropping over 10 years but are nearing significant over the last 2 years

6. Example - Interpreting the 10 year % Change figures
This table should be used in conjunction with the change over time graphs
Table looks at % increase / decrease from current year to baseline year of ie % change in numbers since 2001
Change over time
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
Beavers
-30%
-24%
-19%
-13%
-16%
-15%
-23%
-29% 0%
Cubs
-7%
-3%
-14%
-10%
-17% 6%
20%
Scouts
-25%
-21%
-9%
-20% 3% 9%
-12%
Explorers (inc VS)
62%
81%
104%
92%
100%
73%
35%
27%
Network
Total Youth
-8%
-2%
Leaders
-6%
-5%
-11%
Total Membership
-4%
All figures 0 as no network
Introduction of Explorer Scouting had significant improvement in age range figures
Scout Reduction now approaching significant
All 0 as this is
The benchmark
Total membership reduction now approaching significant

7. Interpreting the numbers – % Change over 10 years graphs
The graphs are of the % change over time tables
They also have added in the % of females at each year
Solid lines are the group / district / county in question, dotted lines are the county / district/ region that they belong to
Dramatic decline in numbers of cubs at the start of the decade, female numbers also declined
Following centenary
Cub numbers increasing
However female % are
Static at around 12% so increase is both male and female in equal proportions
Numbers still dropping from 2003 to 2007, however decline is flattening probably due to programme re-launches, uniforms and media campaign building up to centenary.
During this time female numbers are increasing which will also be slowing down the decline

8. Interpreting the numbers – Year on Year Change
This table should be used in conjunction with the change over time table to identify differences between significant statistics in the two tables which give an early view of trends which are starting to change
Year on Year Change
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
Beavers 4% 1%
-4% 8% 9%
-2%
-7% 6%
-6% 0%
Cubs
-1%
Scouts 2% 7%
-5%
Explorers (inc VS)
16%
22%
53%
Network
-80%
30%
130%
-41%
100%
Total Youth 5%
Leaders
-3%
Total Membership
Similarly on the change over time this is a significant drop of 9% since 2001, however this table shows the year on year drop was smaller and hence the trend was changing which was borne out in 2006 when the figures increased
In the change over time table this statistic is green showing a 65% steady decline which is not yet significant, however the % change on last year is yellow showing a bigger drop than previous years and giving an early warning that numbers have dropped more dramatically this year

9. Interpreting the numbers – Females
There are two tables on females. The first is the actual numbers and should be interpreted in the same way as the overall numbers.
The second is the % of females each year – the key points to look for in this table are trends in numbers going up or down. This must be used in conjunction with overall numbers ie if numbers are overall going up but % of females is going down the group is not necessarily losing females, rather the recruitment is bringing in more males than females
% of females
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
Beavers
18%
11%
16%
12%
13%
10% 8% 4% 1%
Cubs
20% 9% 6% 3% 0%
Scouts
32%
25%
19%
15%
14% 5%
Explorers (inc VS)
26%
31%
46%
36%
23%
Network
Total Youth
17% 2%
Leaders
44%
47%
41%
42%
43%
48%
49%
50%
45%
Other Adults
29%
28%
Total Membership
27%
24%
22%
% of females going up over time
No of females as section leaders going up, but no of other adult females going down. Overall female membership going up.

10. Interpreting the numbers – Retention / Attrition Tables
It’s not currently possible to track individuals on the census so to look at retention / attrition we have to look at overall numbers in each section and assume that if numbers in beavers are greater than numbers in cubs that the difference is the attrition rate from beavers to cubs.
The purpose of this table is to identify any specific sections or groups losing large numbers between sections. The percentages are the attrition / loss rates between sections
Retention between Sections
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
District Beavers to Cubs
35%
28%
24%
20%
23%
27%
33%
22%
41%
District Cubs to Scouts
-17%
-18%
-19%
-21%
-20%
-24%
-29%
District Scouts to explorers
-64%
-66%
-65%
-69%
-71%
-72%
-82%
-83%
District Explorers to network
-95%
-96%
-98%
-97%
-100%
Introduction of Explorer Scouting reduced attrition rates from scouts
Explorer to network attrition rates slowly reducing but still high

11. Interpreting the numbers – Number per group
This table shows the overall number in each section divided by the number of groups. This section is not applied to network so all network figures are blank
The purpose is to identify if groups are getting bigger or smaller over time (both at a sectional level and also looking at numbers of leaders)
Its also important to use this table in conjunction with overall numbers to identify if groups have closed or whether overall numbers are going up
No per Group
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
Beavers 10 8 6 7 9
Cubs 16 13 11 12
Scouts
Explorers (inc VS) 5 4 3 2 1
Network -
Total Youth 40 36 31 33 28 25 27 30
Leaders
Total Membership 46 42 39 32 35
Number per group has increase this year, but when looking at overall figures, one group has closed and numbers overall in all groups are up. So the increase per group is as expected – however numbers of scouts per group is down overall (and down in the table of number per group)

12. Interpreting the numbers – Summary Tab
The summary sheet is a summary of the 2010 data, giving a summary of the numbers of greens and reds per district / group / county etc.
This summary is then compared to the rest of the groups / districts / counties in the area and (in a similar way to the individual statistic RAGs) the mean, and significance levels (based on number of green statuses each group etc has) are worked out to give an overall RAG for each based on the local area.
There are also graphs showing the total numbers per section in each area

13. Interpreting the numbers – Sectional Sheets
The sectional sheets have the same tables as each area sheet however they have a waterfall graph which shows the trend and differences over time since The way to interpret is to look at the trend by block colour over time
Above 0 is a positive change over time
Below 0 is a negative change over time
Trend over time increasing
Bigger blocks show bigger changes compared to other years (if below 0 bigger decrease, if above 0 bigger increase)