1. Determinants of Residential Heating System Choice: An Analysis of Irish Households
ESRI-UCC-MaREI Energy Research Workshop: National Energy & Climate Policy
17 May 2018
John Curtis
Daire McCoy
Claudia Aravena
@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications

2. Research Funding PC3 Gas Innovation Fund Grant No. 12/RC/2302
Energy Policy Research Centre (EPRC)
ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy
Grant No. ES/K006576/1
11/16/2018

3. Residential Heating System Upgrades
“Residential Heating System Upgrades: the role of knowledge, socio-demographics, building attributes and energy infrastructure” John Curtis, Daire McCoy, Claudia Aravena Forthcoming in Energy Policy (2018)
11/16/2018

4. Context & Motivation Transition to low carbon economy
40% EU final energy in buildings
17% EU GHG emissions residential
81% space & water heating
Ireland: 10% emissions, 15% excl. Agric.
51% domestic IE heating not-networked
What drives heating system upgrades?
What drives fuel switching?
11/16/2018

5. SEAI: Unlocking Energy Efficiency Opportunity
11/16/2018

6. Questions Data: National Survey of Households
Who contemplates heating system upgrades?
If upgrading, what do they choose?
Why? (incl. fuel switching, to what extent)
Systematic differences by home-owners
e.g. socio-demographics, “pro-environmental”
Can we identify factors for policy levers?
Data: National Survey of Households
11/16/2018

7. Contemplating heating upgrade?
Compare across 3 outcomes – in past 10 yrs
Not considered
Considered, not upgraded
Upgraded
Predisposed to upgrade but don’t:
mortgage holders, Uni Ed, 35+, not employed
2x more likely upgrade if aware/proximate to gas network compared ‘considered, not upgraded’
“Non findings”: dwelling attributes, socio-demo, energy knowledge or ‘pro environment behaviours’
11/16/2018

8. If upgrading, upgrade choice?
3 fuel types:
Not networked
Gas+
Electricity+
Key dwelling attribute: Aware/proximity gas. Gas+ 59% points more likely
Some socio-d traits important – working status, mortgage holder
No overall trend on knowledge/pro-environmental behaviours
11/16/2018

9. Upgrade decisions Home-owners All households upgraded heating
'Not Considered'
77%
66% -
'Considered, Not upgraded' 8%
12%
'Upgraded'
15%
23%
100%
'Not-networked'
51%
57%
47%
'Gas+'
35%
34%
42%
'Electricity+'
14%
10%
11% N=
1506
991
229
11/16/2018

10. Fuel switching patterns
Previous fuel
Coal
Electricity
Heat
Pump
LPG
Gas
Oil
Peat
Wood
Total 5 1 7 12 2 28 8 4 15
Heat pump 3
Natural Gas 58 65 27 46 6 97 9
Of 28 people previously using coal,
5 still use coal in upgraded system,
7 switched to gas
12 switched to oil, etc.
11/16/2018

11. Replacing heating system
Reason for changing
Agree
Disagree
System broke
33%
56%
Not working well
59%
30%
Carbon emissions
45%
29%
Fuel Costs
69%
17%
Received government grant
19%
71%
11/16/2018

12. Replacement: info source
Information source for heating replacement
Percent
My own research
37%
Recommendation of plumber / trades person
33%
Recommendation of friend/neighbour/relative
15%
Recommendation of energy consultant 7%
Recommendation of energy company (obligated party) 6%
Other (please specify) 1%
11/16/2018

13. Reasons for not upgrading
Reason for keeping current system
Percent
I don't think a replacement will be any better
44%
I would like to but it is too expensive
24%
I'm planning on replacing it in the future
10%
It doesn’t need to be changed 8%
It's not something I think about very often
Other (please specify) 4%
Replacement is too disruptive 3%
11/16/2018

14. Key points Home-owners making decisions with incomplete information
Path dependency/technology lock-in are powerful forces facing low carbon transition
Home-owners knowledge or actions on energy/environment are not critical drivers
Appealing to do the ‘right thing’ won’t get far
Gas infrastructure important driver
Future biogas network obviates need to convert multitudes
11/16/2018