1. OBOR: China’s strategic interests and its potential impacts in Myanmar
Khin Khin Kyaw Kyee
Lead Researcher
ISP-Myanmar

2. Content A brief introduction to OBOR The role of Myanmar in OBOR
Projects Mapping
Expectation
Challenges
Case Studies

3. One Belt One Road Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Grand Strategy
Initially proposed Silk Road Economic Belt in Kazakhstan in 2013 and Maritime Silk Road in Indonesia
Marshall plan- 13,000,000,000 (140 bln)

4. One Belt One Road 60 countires, 4.4 billion population.
75% of world energy resources. Rejuvenation, attempt to get back to the center of international stage

5. Six economic corridors
China-Mongolia Russia Corridor
New Eurasian Land Bridge
China Central Asia West Asia Corridor
China-Pakistan Corridor
Bangladesh-China- India-Myanmar Corridor
Indochina peninsula Corridor
China Myanmar economic corridor

7. Chinese version of globalization
It covers
60 countries
55% of world GNP
75% of world energy resources

8. Why OBOR?
Domestic realities: need to upgrade the economy, Pollution, narrowing down the development gap, Promoting its advantaged industry.
International factors : Energy and resource security, Malacca dilemma, Projecting influence
40% primary1` / 9% secondary/ 50% tertiary

9. What are the driving factors?
Domestic realities: need to upgrade the economy, Pollution, narrowing down the development gap, Promoting its advantaged industry.
The share of agri/primary sector is less than 1percent.
Even though there is a gradual decrease in the share of agri sector, the it still account for over 30% of the employment.
Secondary sector include construction and industry. Industry account for 80%of the secondary industry. (hold 30% of empolyment)
Secondary sector only account for 25% of GDP in developed country.

11. International factors : Energy and resource security, Malacca dilemma, Projecting influence
Xi’s ambitious vision : (reviving the history)

12. Looking at Geopolitical aspect

13. Components
Guiding principles
Policy Coordination
Infrastructure development
Trade facilitation
Financial integration
People- People engagement
Peace and cooperation
openness and inclusiveness
mutual learning
Mutual benefit

14. The role of Myanmar Western development Project
Energy Security (China Myanmar oil and gas pipeline)
Two Oceans Strategy

15. Myanmar’s strategic location

17. BCIM economic corridor

18. Indo-China peninsular economic corridor

19. Projects Mapping

21. Two Oceans rail link

22. What does this all mean?
OBOR is a very broad development vision and sketch of Central government
Thus it is easier to get money and support from the central government if a project is identified to be under the broad umbrella of OBOR.
A lot of provincial government, state own operations, private business, academic and scholars are lobbying for business idea to be accepted by the central government.

23. Major Existing Project

24. Proposed Project:China Myanmar economic corridor

25. Expected Opportunities
Fair deal
Infrastructure development
Conflict resolutions
Job creations

26. Case study- CPEC Pakistan – (Balochistan conflict area)
Pakistan Authority – the project will contribute to the development of the whole province and address various economic and social problems of Balochistan.
Baloch – CPEC will needs thousands of workers and operators. But there will be no employment opportunity for Baloch, instead will being new immigrants to the region. Economic exploitation is the main objective of the CPEC. Baloch are among the economically poorest despite the abundance resources. The CPEC will cause further escalation of this conflict with its accompanying devastations.

27. Case study 2- Sri Lanka debt trap
As western nations accused of Sri Lanka’s former president of grievous human rights abuses during the final stages of 26-year civil war, China extended billions of dollars of loans for new infrastructure projects.
Sri Lanka government want to turn Hambantota into a new global shipping hub with the $1.5 billion Chinese loan.
But the whole project does not turn out as expected.
Sri Lanka government couldn’t repay the debt, and had to hand over the port to the Chinese, as well as to right to built a SEZ near Hambantota to drive some demand for shipping.
Sri Lanka owes more than $8billion to state-controlled Chinese firms.

28. “Among the various developing countries along OBOR routes, there are some with relatively strong governance (such as India, Indonesia, and Vietnam) which will be hard for China to unilaterally dictate to and control. Such countries will most likely not want to accept large numbers of Chinese workers or take on high levels of debt. Other countries along the OBOR (such as Cambodia and Pakistan), however, have relatively weak governance systems. China may be in a better position to dictate terms to these countries,...” (LSE International Development)

29. Challenges Financial burden and potential debt trap
commercial value or strategic value
Conflict resolutions or complicating conflict?
Environmental and Social impact
Jobs for whom? Definition of locals?

30. China’s interests in Myanmar peace process
Before 2015 – To contain the role of the US and other power in its door step and to regain its influence on Myanmar. Under Current government- ??

31. China’s engagement with NLD government
DASSK rapprochement with China
Building relations with DASSK
21st century Panglong - DASSK flagship initiative
OBOR- Xi’s flagship initiative

32. After Second 21st Century Panglong China seem to clearly realized that
Tatmadaw hold a rigid position and strong leverage.
NLD does not have capacity to make it happen.
Attaining peace is impossible in the near future.
OBOR conditioning on Peace is unrealistic
Promoting OBOR for peace
It’s basic consideration is not to lose face with any of the stakeholders and to make sure it can implement OBOR having strong opposition

33. Thank you!!!