1. Vulnerability and Adaptation in Agriculture: the Thai’s Experiences
The study
Approach
Results
Lessons learned and Potential improvement
Implication

2. Yields (controlled climate)
Approach
Controlled climate
GHG 1% climate
Crop growth models
Yields (controlled climate)
Yields (GHG 1% climate)
Difference in yields

3. Climate Scenarios Using the simulation of the GCMs Various GCMs
Transient (CO2 increases 1% per year)
Various GCMs
CCCMA
ECHAM
CSIRO
HADLEY

4. From Global to Local Direct Interpolation
Use 30 years monthly average to reduce short term climate variation
1990s( )
2020s( )
2050s ( )
2080s( )
Develop daily climate scenarios for specific locations

5. Crops: Models and Areas
Crop models
CERES MAIZE, CERES RICE
Crops and areas
Fragrant Rice in two provinces
Maize in two provinces

6. Scenarios Four climate inputs from different GCMs
Two crops x two areas
With and without fertilizer
With and without C effects on crop
Four intervals ( 1990s, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s)

7. Some Results

8. Maize, Nakhonsawan, no fertilizer

9. Maize, Nakhonrachasima, no fertilizer

10. Rice, Roi-et, no fertilizer

11. Rice, Surin, no fertilizer

12. Major observations Results from different GCMs vary quite a lot
Yields tend to drop overtime
Yields of maize are not much different between the two provinces, the reverse is true for rice
There are some positive carbon effects on yield

13. Lessons learned High uncertainty of climate models
Crop models need to be improved
Impacts could vary substantially between areas
Vulnerability analysis is not sufficient to be used for adaptation study
Local climate data are limited

14. How to improve Reduce uncertainty of climate models
develop regional or sub-regional models
improve downscaling methods
Improve crop growth models
Cover the areas and crops adequately
Develop other approaches

15. Implications
Research and development on vulnerability is urgently needed
Soft technology transfer
Indigenous capacity building
Sub-regional network is important to facilitate the technology development and capacity building
A need for strong participation in international research and development on vulnerability
Existing mechanisms make vulnerability and adaptation relatively much behind others