1. Economic Planning Study (EPS) Updates ColumbiaGrid Planning Meeting February 9, 2017

2. Outline Modeling Issue 2017 Modeling Goals
Intertie Flow Pattern to California

3. California Duck Curve ~25,000 MW of solar modeled in CA
Modeled CAISO load avg daily ramp rate
4,000 MW ramp in 3 hrs in 11 months
12,000 MW ramp in 7 hrs in 4 months
Modeled CAISO Load – Solar avg daily ramp rate
12,000 MW ramp in 3 hrs in 11 months
12,000 MW ramp in 7 hrs in 10 months

4. California Duck Curve Ramp Rate
Modeled CAISO load avg daily ramp rate
4,000 MW ramp in 3 hrs in 11 months
12,000 MW ramp in 7 hrs in 4 months
Modeled CAISO Load – Solar avg daily ramp rate
12,000 MW ramp in 3 hrs in 11 months
18,000 MW ramp in 7 hrs in 10 months

5. WECC 2026 Common Case
Problem: CC outside of California are starting for the afternoon ramp in California
WECC Dataset v1.7: $170M or $465k/day
SoNev/AZ $140 M + NW/Inland $30M
CG Dataset: $90M or $246k/day
SoNev/AZ $68 M + NW/Inland $23 M

6. Market Solution Market solutions start
Clearing prices in CA support daily cycling of CC
Estimated uplift cost for one start: $9.60 – $7.20/MWh; Assuming $15,000/start, 260 MW for 6-8 hours
CA entities are willing to contract for afternoon ramp
Modeling Techniques to change commitment behavior:
Start cost, nomogram, min up and down time, or bidding

7. What do we Model? What do we model?
An efficient market?
PCM assume single owner market
A wholesale power market with 38 balance areas?
Apply modeling contracts to mimic behavior observed in the marker
Problem at WECC: Modeling assumption are chosen independent of a clear understanding of what type of market is being modeled
Determine modeling assumption are clearer when the type of market is being modeled is known
ColumbiaGrid provides a PCM inline with a wholesale market

8. 2017 Modeling Goals

9. 2017 EPS Plan Improve modeling of WECC
Review dataset for data/modeling issues
Minimize cycling of CC outside of CA for the afternoon ramp
Improve hydro modeling
Process CEMS data to develop historic operation and start of thermal units. Used to understand current operation
Example use: If all CC F in NW starts 6-24 time a year but modeled results average 120
Suggest modeling improvements to regional modelers and WECC

10. Is the hourly shape of Northwest Exports to California Changing

11. Hourly Flow Pattern to California: Aug
Modeled results for 2026 show mid-day as the lowest flow during all months
Exports during August does not show a mid-day low

12. Hourly Flow Pattern to California: Nov
2016: Lowest flow is during the mid-day
All other years show an on-peak/off-peak pattern with a mid-day dip in 2015

13. Hourly Flow Pattern to California: Jan
Jan 2017: Lowest flow is mid-day
All other years show an on-peak/off-peak pattern with a mid-day dip

14. Question: Kevin Harris (503) 943-4932 harris@columbiagrid.org