1. Defense Intelligence & Infectious Disease Modeling Interest and Need
James T. Kvach, Ph.D.
Defense Intelligence Agency
Armed Forces Medical Intelligence Center
Ft. Detrick, Maryland

2. Why the Interest & Need? Operational Policy Acquisition
Force health protection
Policy
Crisis management
Acquisition
Forecasts

3. Disease Risks -- Recurring Impact
U.S. ARMY
HOSPITAL
ADMISSIONS
DURING WAR
Responsible for 2 of 3 U.S. Wartime Hospital Admissions

4. New Roles and Missions MISSION
REGIONAL
WARFIGHTING
COUNTERDRUG
OPERATIONS
PEACEKEEPING
HUMANITARIAN
INTENSITY OF
CONFLICT
PROBABILITY
DEPLOYMENT
FREQUENCY
BATTLE
CASUALTIES
DNBI *
MODERATE
LOW
HIGH
NONE
MISSION
*WITHOUT PREVENTIVE MEDICINE COUNTERMEASURES

5. Civilian Health Care
Status

6. Nation Building/Failure
Civilian Health Care
&
Nation Building/Failure
How to advise?
Where can you
make a difference?

7. Evolving Defense Strategy Health Protection Implications
Unfamiliar/Hostile Environments
Infectious Disease & Environmental Risks
Multinational Task Force Alignments
Medical Support Capabilities
Disease Prevalence
Reduced Military Health Services Footprint
Reliance on Host Nation Support
Food and Water
Medical Care/Support and Pharmaceuticals
Short- and Long-Term Health and Liability Concerns

8. Modeling Focus Disease spread Conditions for outbreaks
National
Regional
International
Conditions for outbreaks
Disease control nodes

9. Defense Intelligence View
Behavior Infectious
Disease
Individual Militarily Relevant
Group Humanitarian
Societal Economic

10. Ideal Model Country/disease neutral Real time data Predictive
Tailorable
Real time data
Predictive
Control nodes
Crisis management/analytical tool
National, regional, international
capable