1. Corn and Soybean Price Outlook
Dec. 20, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
95.3
Yield
(bu./acre)
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
160.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
13,989
Beg. Stocks
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
824
Imports 8 28 29
162 30
Total Supply
14,774
14,182
13,517
11,932
14,842
Feed & Residual
5,125
4,795
4,557
4,333
5,200
Ethanol
4,591
5,019
5,000
4,648
4,950
Food, Seed, & Other
1,370
1,407
1,428
1,396
1,450
Exports
1,980
1,834
1,543
731
Total Use
13,066
13,055
12,528
11,108
13,050
Ending Stocks
1,792
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.89
4.40
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
76.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.8
43.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,034
3,258
Beg. Stocks
138
151
215
169
141
Imports 15 14 16 36 25
Total Supply
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,239
3,423
Crush
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,689
1,690
Seed & Residual
110
130 88 90
109
Exports
1,499
1,501
1,365
1,320
1,475
Total Use
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,098
3,274
Ending Stocks
150
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.40
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

8. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

9. Corn Grind for Ethanol

10. Current Corn Futures
4.30
4.22
4.13
Source: CME Group, 12/19/2013

11. Current Soybean Futures
12.45
11.02
10.83
Source: CME Group, 12/19/2013

12. Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS

13. Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Corn demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good
Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go?
Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term
2012/13
USDA
2013/14 USDA
2013/14
Futures
(12/19/13)
Corn
$6.89
$4.40
$4.13
Soybeans
$14.40
$12.50
$12.45