1. Demographic Characteristics and Trends of Older Texans
Legislative Committee on Aging
August 31, 2010
Austin, TX
Lloyd Potter is the Texas State Demographer and the Director of the Texas State Data Center based at the University of Texas at San Antonio.

2. 25 Million Reasons to be Proud of Texas (among a few more)
Demographic Highlights
TEXAS is:
big.  The population of Texas is the second largest in the United States, approaching 25 million people (estimated population of 24.8 million people in 2009).7
young.  Approximately 28% of Texas’ population is under 18 and only 10% of the population is older than 65 years.1  Webb County in Texas, has the youngest population in the U.S. with children younger than 5 comprising 12.8% of the population.7
embracing of culture and diversity.  Approximately 9 million or 38% of Texans are of Hispanic descent,  2.8 million or 12% are African Americans, and 1 million or 4% are other (non-Anglo mainly of Asian descent).1  In about a decade, it is expected that Texas’ population will have more persons of Hispanic descent than any other racial or ethnic group.4
a desired place to live and work.  Net in-migration to Texas accounts for almost half of the population growth in recent years.1 More than 171,900 college graduates moved into Texas each year between 2006 and 2008, placing Texas as 2nd in the Nation by this measure.
urban. Texas has three of the top 10 largest cities in the Nation.3 Several of the metropolitan areas in Texas are among the most rapidly growing in the Nation.5
rural. Texas is the second largest state in the Nation in terms of square miles (268,601) and approximately 17% of the population lives in rural areas.1 
a working state. Texas has a civilian labor force of more than twelve million workers and an unemployment rate lower than in most States.6
family oriented.  Texas ranks 3rd among states for the percent of households which are married-couple families with children (24.4%).2
multigenerational.  Texas ranks 3rd among states for percent of households which are multigenerational (4.5%).2
growing – fast.   Texas gained more population than any other state in the last estimate year (between July 1, 2008 and July 1, 2009), adding 478,000 people.7   Among cities over 100,000 population in the U.S., 4 of the 10 fastest growing areas are in Texas ( change).7  
The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to ensuring that our policy makers, state and local government agencies, businesses, and the general public have ready access to information about our greatest asset: our people. Our mission is to help our constituents to understand the population characteristics and trends that are relevant to their areas of responsibility and interest and to present that information in a way that is easily understood. Toward this end, we are working to craft products and informational interfaces that will target the informational needs of our constituents. We are also very committed to providing timely responses to our constituents specific informational needs. This slide provides a number of relevant demographic facts about our State’s greatest asset.
Data sources: 1. Texas State Data Center, Population Estimates; 2.  U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; 3. U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 4. Texas State Data Center, Population Projections; 5. U.S. Census Bureau,  Metropolitan Statistical Area Estimates; 6. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 7. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

3. Texas Demography
This testimony will begin by describing basic demographic characteristics and dynamics in Texas and then will focus on other issues about our population.

4. Fastest Growing States, 2000-2009
Population*
2009
Numerical
Change
Percent
Texas
20,851,820
24,782,302
3,930,484
18.8
California
33,871,648
36,961,664
3,090,016
9.1
Florida
15,982,378
18,537,969
2,555,130
16.0
Georgia
8,186,453
9,829,211
1,642,430
20.1
Arizona
5,130,632
6,595,778
1,465,171
28.6
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,380,884
1,334,478
16.6
Virginia
7,078,515
7,882,590
803,542
11.4
Washington
5,894,121
6,664,195
770,052
13.1
Colorado
4,301,261
5,024,748
722,733
Nevada
1,998,257
2,643,085
644,825
32.3
* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and estimates for July 1 for 2009.
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.
Texas is the second largest state in terms of population (2nd to CA) and area (2nd to AK). In terms of number of people, Texas’ growth exceeds that of all other states and is fourth in terms of rate of growth among these states, as indicated by percent change between 2000 and 2009.

5. Life Tables Values for Older Texans
Year
Percent surviving to age 65
Remaining Life Expectancy (years)
1960
72.04
14.75
1980
76.48
16.65
1990
79.03
17.19
2004
82.84
18.21
2007
83.16
18.43
Texans are living longer. Life expectancy at age 65 has been increasing steadily over the years. In 2007 a 65 year old Texan will live, on average, another years. Another way to think about this is that about half of all Texans who were 65 in 2007 will be alive when they are 83 years old.
Source: U.S. Decennial Life Tables, , ,
Texas Department of State Health Services, 2004 and 2007

6. Population Pyramids, Texas
While Texas continues to grow, the age structure is getting older. Monitor the shift in the population above 65 years of age in each successive pyramid. The yellow bars identify the cohort commonly referred to as the baby boom.
2000
2008
2020
Sources: 2000 Census, Texas State Data Center Projections

7. Projected Population of Older Texans
The Texas State Data Center population projections indicate significant growth in the number of persons aged 65-74, with slightly less growth for the population aged and relevant, but less growth for the population aged 85 plus.
Source: Texas State Data Center, Projection Scenario

8. Observed and Projected Dependency Ratios for Texas, 1960-2040
The dependency ratio is an indicator of the relationship between the number of people in “productive years” relative to persons in “non-productive” years. A high dependency ratio indicates a burden on those in the working ages. This graph demonstrates that the child dependency ratio is and will continue to decline in Texas and the old age dependency ratio has been increasing and will continue to increase. Therefore, the burden indicated by the dependency ratio is shifting from children to older persons. Keep in mind that the ratio presented here and the “burden” interpretation assumes that most persons stop working at age 65. This assumption may be less and less true as people work to older ages.

9. Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older in Texas Counties, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected
These two maps demonstrate the projected shift in the age structure of Texas at the county level. The age-structure in many counties in Texas will become older over the coming decades. The urban counties and the border counties will become older but not to the same extent as many of the more rural counties.
2000
2040

10. Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older in Texas Counties, 2000 Census and 2009 Estimated
These maps demonstrate the change in age structure over the current decade. Many of the more rural counties are becoming older at a more rapid pace than the urban counties.
2000
2009

11. Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2000 and 2009
While many of the urban counties have smaller percentages of their population in the older ages, the actual numbers of people aged 65+ are increasingly concentrated in urban counties and the south border.
2000
2009

12. Projection of Ethnicity of Texas Population Aged 65 Years and Older, 2000 to 2040
Currently the racial and ethnic make-up of the population aged 65+ is largely non-Hispanic White, though this percentage is expected to decline over the coming decades. The second largest racial/ethnic group among those aged 65+ are those of Hispanic descent. The Hispanic population older than 65 years is expected to increase over the coming decades and at some point, will likely exceed the older population of the non-Hispanic Whites population.
Source: Texas State Data Center, Projection Scenario

13. Percent of Texans Reporting a Self-Care
Limitation or Any Limitation, by Age, 2007
Source: State Data Center tabulation of U.S. Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey, 2007

14. Projected Growth of the 65+ Population Reporting a
Self-Care Limitation, 2000 to 2040, Assuming
Constant Age/Sex/Race/Ethnic Rates of Disability
Source: Office of the State Demographer, Projection Scenario

15. Physicians per 1,000 Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2008
Data on this map about physicians licensed to practice in Texas are from the Texas Medical Board. Some rural counties do not have any practicing physicians. The more urban counties appear to have relatively high ratios of physicians to population aged 65+. This map does not provide information about the type/specialty of physicians.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2008Population Estimate (population), and Texas Medical Board (physicians).

16. Filling the Transit Gaps: Unserved Urbanized Area Populations
Urban gaps identified in the following urbanized areas:
Amarillo
Austin
Beaumont
College Station – Bryan
Corpus Christi
Dallas – Fort Worth – Arlington
Denton – Lewisville
El Paso
Galveston
Houston
Killeen
Longview
Lubbock
Midland
Odessa
Port Arthur
San Antonio
Temple
Texarkana
The Woodlands
Tyler
Victoria
Waco
Wichita Falls
The Texas Department of Transportation is supporting a research project to examine the characteristics of the populations in urbanized areas of Texas that are not currently served by urban transit services. The project is being led by the Texas Transportation Institute of Texas A&M with support from the Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research at the University of Texas at San Antonio. The project is not yet complete, so final results are not yet available. This is a listing of the urbanized areas that are being examined as part of this project. One of the characteristics being examined is the population aged 65 years or more living in the transit gap areas. Eric Gleason at Texas Department of Transportation is the contact for this project and other related information regarding access to transportation.
Texas Department of Transportation: RMC
Texas A&M University/Texas Transportation Institute
University of Texas at San Antonio/Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research

17. This map demonstrates how the transit service gap areas are identified
This map demonstrates how the transit service gap areas are identified. Using geographic information systems (GIS) interfaces and data from the U.S. Census Bureau, household and population characteristics were estimated.

18. Transit Gaps Preliminary Findings
Estimated 273,000 persons aged 65 and older living in urbanized area transit gaps in 2010
Urbanized area
Percent of Texas Urban Gap 65+ Population, 2010
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington
46%
Houston
32%
San Antonio 6%
Austin 3%
Preliminary findings for the urbanized areas examined suggest that slightly more than 273,000 persons aged 65+ were residing in the transit gap areas. Of these, about 46% were in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington urbanized area, 32% in the Houston urbanized area, and then San Antonio and Austin accounted for 6% and 3% respectively.

19. Major Points
The older portion of Texas’ population will continue to increase relative to the rest of the population as a result of increased longevity and “baby boomers” moving into the older years.
Older adults in some rural counties have no or limited access to physicians while many of the more urban counties appear to have sufficient numbers of physicians for seniors.
Access to public transit among older adults appears to be limited in some parts of major urban areas. It is likely that access to transportation among older adults in rural areas is a significant issue.

20. Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
Office:
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
I hope this testimony reviewing the population characteristics and dynamics of our State is useful to your Committee in the significant and challenging work that you have in front of you. The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to supporting your work through providing you with the best, most accurate, and objective information we can identify about our greatest asset, the people of Texas. Thank you for the opportunity to testify before your Committee.