1. P1.38 Improving Storm-Based Warnings
John T. Ferree and Herb L. White NOAA/NWS Office of Climate Weather and Water Services
Challenges
Improvements
Probabilistic Warnings The Future?
Collaboration Across County Warning Area Boundaries
“For optimal decision-making, users need to consider the range of possible events beyond the most likely outcome in determining the appropriate action….This expression of forecast uncertainty is an area warranting improvement and will require increased communication between users and producers of weather forecasts.”
Weather Analysis and Forecasting Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society
Adopted by AMS Council on 8 August, 2007
Madison
Bond
Clinton
Fayette
Marion
St. Clair
Washington
Randolph
Perry
Jackson
Franklin
Jefferson
Hamilton
Williamson
Saline
Wayne
Clay
STL
PAH
ILX
St. Louis CWA
Paducah CWA
Lincoln CWA
Issued by PAH
Issued by STL
Current
Future
VISION - Reduce area warned by 70%
Some county-based dissemination
NOAA All-Hazards Radio
EAS
Boundaries
County Warning Area Boundaries
Marine/Land Boundaries
Picking up a small island
Polygon size and shape
Initial threat area
30 min. threat probability
1 hr threat swath (accum)
Est. time of arrival
Cross Referencing to other valid warnings for same county/parish
Madison
Bond
Clinton
Fayette
Marion
St. Clair
Washington
Randolph
Perry
Jackson
Franklin
Jefferson
Williamson
TOR until 3:30PM
SVR until 3:45PM
Old
New
Probabilistic warning guidance conceptualization
Expand “impact-based” warnings to other phenomena (winter weather, heat, fire weather, etc.)
Research user needs for probabilistic warnings and longer lead times
Prototype tools to produce probabilistic warnings
Dissemination in Common Alerting Protocol (CAP)
WFUS53 KDDC
TORDDC
KSC
/O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W T0219Z T0300Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
919 PM CDT FRI MAY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
* AT 917 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 14 MILES
SOUTH OF GREENSBURG...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF WILMORE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENSBURG...
RURAL RESIDENCES OF EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY.
THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 54 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 105 AND 115.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES CAUSING DAMAGE.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. IF IN A
MOBILE HOME...EVACUATE TO A SUBSTANTIAL STRUCTURE. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. A
LARGE TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY IN A BASEMENT OR OTHER
UNDERGROUND SHELTER AND GET UNDER SOMETHING STURDY.
THIS WARNING REPLACES THE PREVIOUS WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
KIOWA COUNTY.
LAT...LON $$
UMSCHEID
Tornado Warning
The National Weather Service has issued a tornado warning for Kiowa County in South Central Kansas until 10 PM. The tornado warning includes Greensburg, rural residences of eastern Kiowa County, and highway 54 between mile markers 105 and 115.
At 9:17 PM CDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado 14 miles south of Greensburg ( or 11 miles northwest of Wilmore) moving northeast at 25 MPH.