1. Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Crop Economics
Ag. Credit School
Ames, Iowa
June 4, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. Supply Demand U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
97.3
Yield
(bu./acre)
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
158.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
14,140
Beg. Stocks
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
759
Imports 8 28 29
125 25
Total Supply
14,774
14,182
13,516
11,894
14,924
Feed & Residual
5,125
4,795
4,545
4,400
5,325
Ethanol
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,600
4,850
Food, Seed, & Other
1,370
1,407
1,428
1,385
1,445
Exports
1,980
1,834
1,543
750
1,300
Total Use
13,066
13,055
12,527
11,135
12,920
Ending Stocks
2,004
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.90
4.70
Supply
Demand
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. Arable Land

4. Planted Area for the 8 Major Crops
Source: USDA-ERS

5. Iowa Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Iowa Farms and Farmland
Source: USDA-Census of Ag.

7. Productivity
Source: USDA-ERS

8. Change in Input Structure
Source: USDA-ERS

9. Iowa Yields
Source: USDA-NASS

10. Iowa Corn Costs
Source: Duffy, AgDM A1-21

11. Iowa Soybean Costs
Source: Duffy, AgDM A1-21

12. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

13. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

14. Iowa Crop Margins

15. Corn Use for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS

16. Soybean Use for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS

17. U.S. Meat Production
Source: USDA-ERS

18. U.S. Meat Consumption
Source: USDA-ERS

19. U.S. Meat Exports
Source: USDA-ERS

20. GDP Growth
Source: USDA-ERS

21. GDP Growth
Source: USDA-ERS

22. World Meat Consumption
Source: USDA-PSD

23. World Veg. Oil Consumption
Source: USDA-PSD

24. (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Liquid Fuel Usage
2007
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
(Percent of 2007 Value)
United States
20.6
98%
100%
102%
104%
107%
Canada
2.3
96%
Mexico
2.1
105%
110%
114%
129%
138%
Europe
15.3
92%
88%
89%
90%
Japan
5.0
84%
86%
82%
China
7.6
132%
153%
178%
201%
222%
India
2.8
139%
154%
168%
Africa
3.1
113%
116%
126%
135%
148%
Central and South America
6.0
112%
117%
125%
133%
World
86.1
103%
121%
128%
Source: DOE-EIA

25. U.S. Crude Oil Prices
Source: USDA-ERS

26. Ethanol Production
Source: DOE-EIA

27. Biodiesel Production
Source: DOE-EIA

28. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption
7.6 bil. gal.
7.4 bil. gal.
Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

29. World Corn Markets
Source: USDA 29 29

30. Supply Demand U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
97.3
Yield
(bu./acre)
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
158.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
14,140
Beg. Stocks
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
759
Imports 8 28 29
125 25
Total Supply
14,774
14,182
13,516
11,894
14,924
Feed & Residual
5,125
4,795
4,545
4,400
5,325
Ethanol
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,600
4,850
Food, Seed, & Other
1,370
1,407
1,428
1,385
1,445
Exports
1,980
1,834
1,543
750
1,300
Total Use
13,066
13,055
12,527
11,135
12,920
Ending Stocks
2,004
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.90
4.70
Supply
Demand
Source: USDA-WAOB 30 30

31. Crop Prices for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS

32. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: