1. VA/NC High Speed Rail: Benefits and Challenges January 9, 2012 Trip Pollard

2. Virginia Rail Policy Institute

3. HSR Benefits Multiple benefits Many assumptions and variables (e.g. speed, ridership, route, vehicle type) Get it right and get it going to maximize benefits

4. Market Demand Amtrak FY11 highest ridership ever 50% increase in VA in past 5 years VRE grew 12% FY10-11 New services exceed expectations Source: DRPT

5. Market Demand Top 3 state supported passenger rail services highest % ridership increase in US in FY11 all in NC and VA -Piedmont (40.2%) -DC-Lynchburg (28.5%) -DC-Newport News (19.1%) Source: DRPT

6. Population Growth Population growth in SE much faster than US; projected to continue rapid increase

7. Many areas with the highest driving rates per capita are in the SEHSR corridor (Raleigh, Charlotte, Fredericksburg in top 10 in US) Congestion among worst in U.S. Annual time and fuel costs hurt individuals and businesses Defense – Hampton Roads/DC Job Access/Reduced Congestion Costs

8. Airport Delay Air travel and delay within the corridor increased rapidly Atlanta 4 th worst of 30 major airports in US in 2009, 77% on time departure; Charlotte 82% Source: Brookings Institute 2009

9. Costs to Taxpayers; Limits; Need Choices

10. Market/Demographic Changes- Aging Population © GRTC Transit System

11. Economic Benefits: Jobs and Competitiveness Building/upgrading SEHSR corridor to 90-110 mph estimated create or sustain 228,000 jobs Attract and retain businesses and employees Business leaders are recognizing that quality of life directly affects economic prosperity Quality of life key selling point

12. Economic Benefits- Development, Revitalization, TOD Source: City of Richmond and Dover, Kohl & Partners

15. Energy Benefits Over 5 billion gallons of motor fuels were consumed in VA and 5.4 billion in NC in 2010 Economic (business and individual cost, trade deficit), environmental, national security issue

16. Overreliance on oil in the transportation sector is the Achilles heel of our national security. –Military Advisory Board

18. Energy Benefits Auto 43% more and air 27% more BTUs per passenger mile than intercity rail

19. Health/Environmental Benefits Vehicle pollution can cause pain when inhaling, shortness of breath, coughing, headaches, asthma attacks Children and the elderly most vulnerable Average 112 violations ozone health standards/yr in VA 1990-2010 (over 80 in 2010; over 60 in 2011)

20. Adapted from CCAP/CNT 2006

21. Energy and Emissions Benefits Petersburg to DC estimated to eliminate 13 million auto trips, save 467 million gallons of fuel, 2.9 million tons CO2 emissions, and 13,500 tons NOx over 30 years

22. Environmental Benefits Other estimates even more ambitious. CCAP and CNT: Full buildout SEHSR could divert 18% of air travel in corridor, eliminate over 392 million tons of CO2 emissions annually, and over 180 million tons annually from autos.

23. Land Development: –Southeast has seen most acres developed in US –Development increase much faster than population –HSR/local transit can spur mixed use communities, TOD Reduced Sprawl © Charles Shoffner

24. SEHSR Potential Costs Land use (direct and indirect) Energy Emissions Water and wetlands

25. Keys to Maximize Benefits Connections –SE – Network not segments –Extension/link NE Corridor

26. Keys to Maximize Benefits Transit, light rail, bike/ped network and connections to stations Central station location Land use around station ©Cliffords Photography

27. Keys to Maximize Benefits Electrification (and source), alternative fuels, more efficient diesel engines

28. Getting There? Attacks on HSR Analysis/planning Funding HSR and other alternatives (federal, state, regional, local) Land use (esp. local but key state role) Focus on benefits Source: DRPT