1. Modeling the Consumer Behavior in a Hybrid Model of China
Xin Su
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, China

2. Context
The key of climate governance is the speed rather than the direction now . Most countries in the world have signed the Paris Agreement, but the NDCs goals are far away from the 2 or 1.5℃ pathway. The carbon budget of 2℃ is not enough for 20 years under the current emission rate.
The key of climate governance now is the speed rather than the direction. Most countries in the world have signed the Paris Agreement, But the NDCs goals are far away from the 2 or 1.5℃ goals. So how to shift to low-carbon societies rapidly is the most important thing.
Source: Rogelj et al., 2016
Source: Peters et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2016

3. Context
To shift to a low-carbon social rapidly, great progress need to be made in
not only supply side but also demand side. And the key of demand side is Consumer Behavior.
Human consumption activities are the ultimate drivers for the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
The indirect emissions of consumers are growing with the income rapidly
Human consumption activities are the ultimate drivers for the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
Source: IPCC AR5
Source: Golley and Meng, 2012

4. Chinese Context New stage of China Chinese dream
China's two centennial goals

5. Chinese Context Ecological Civilization Simple and moderate
Green and low-carbon

6. Chinese Context New technologies Shared bicycles Alternative vehicles
Internet+ technologies ……

7. The Key is how Consumers act
Chinese Context
Consumers
Chinese dream
China's two centennial goals
economy
Income increase
emission？
Simple and moderate
Green and low carbon
society
Lifestyle change
welfare？
Shared bicycles
Alternative vehicles
Internet+ technologies
technology
Consumption update
The Key is how Consumers act

8. Context Consumers in tradition models Consumers in real life
One representative consumer at the regional level
Unbounded rationality
Utility maximization & Cost minimization
The same and fixed preference
Consumers in real life
Heterogeneity（consumption ability、consumption preference…）
Unbounded rationality（habit、risk preference 、 personality …）
Social influence （social norm 、 neighborhood effect …）
…….

9. Research Question:
How the consumer behavior will influence the demand of
energy and goods and service in future of China?
How the consumer behavior will influence the technology
diffusion in China?
How the policies will change the welfare of the residents in
China?

10. Methodology What I have now: What I want to do:
China-More(China Multi-gas Optimized Reduction and Evaluation model )
Imaclim-China
household survey data(1988~2009)
What I want to do:
Multi-consumer Imaclim-China
Technology choice module of China-More
Combining these two models

11. Methodology: Multi-consumer Imaclim-China
Consumer heterogeneity analyze
Income determines the ability of consumption but other factors influence
Regression.
Food
Income
Cloth
Direct
emission ？
Location
Power
I/O Analysis
Household survey data
Occupation
Appliance
Education
Indirect
emission
Travel
Age
Service
Family
。。。

12. Methodology: Multi-consumer Imaclim-China
Divide the consumer to 30 groups and build a module to project the change of the groups.
Social development and changes
Economic development and equity
Projections and policies
Income 0~10%
Low-carbon consumers
Income10~20%
Consumer
groups
Medium consumers
Income 20~30%
。。。
High-carbon consumers
Income 90~100%

13. Methodology :Multi-consumer Imaclim-China
Build the multi-consumer Imaclim-China
30 groups of consumers
30 demand vectors
30 utility functions

14. Methodology: Technology choice module
Transportation：MA3T model
MA3T :Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies
Nested multinomial logit method
Range anxiety, access to recharging points, daily driving patterns and
willingness to accept technological innovation
Source:

15. Methodology: Technology choice module
Building : Logit method & Consumer groups
Light, heating, cooking, hot water, air condition, refrigerator
Different consumers groups have different preference of new technologies
𝑷 𝒋 = 𝑪 𝑰𝑵𝑽𝒋 + 𝑪 𝑭𝑰𝑿𝒋 + 𝑪 𝑽𝑨𝑹𝒋
𝑺𝒉𝒂𝒓𝒆 𝒊𝒋 = 𝒃 𝒊𝒋 × 𝑷 𝒋 𝒓 𝒑 𝒋 𝒃 𝒊𝒋 × 𝑷 𝒋 𝒓 𝒑
𝑺𝒉𝒂𝒓𝒆 𝒋 = 𝒊 𝑺𝒉𝒂𝒓𝒆 𝒊𝒋 × 𝒑𝒓𝒐 𝒊
proportion

16. Methodology: Technology choice module
Power & Industry： logit method
Power and industries are government-leading in China
𝑷 𝒋 = 𝑪 𝑰𝑵𝑽𝒋 + 𝑪 𝑭𝑰𝑿𝒋 + 𝑪 𝑽𝑨𝑹𝒋
𝑺𝒉𝒂𝒓𝒆 𝒋 = 𝒃 𝒋 × 𝑷 𝒋 𝒓 𝒑 𝒋 𝒃 𝒋 × 𝑷 𝒋 𝒓 𝒑

17. Technology choice module
Whole model
IMACLIM-China
Food
Energy value and
quantity
consumer
Cloth
GHGs
Pollutant
Power
Industry
consumer
Travel
Agriculture
consumer
appliance
technology
Supply
Building
Service
consumer
Demand
Transport
。。。 模型
China-More
Groups and characters
cost
penetration
Groups and characters
Socioeconomic
policies
Technology choice module

18. THANK YOU!