1. David Toke
CPDE Conference 2018

2. Ray Thompson Siemens

3. Renewables about to overtake nuclear

4. Source: WNISR2017
Mycle Schneider et al, “The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2017”, Mycle Schneider Consulting, Paris, September 2017 (see Figure 42 page 182).

5. Anti-nuclear campaigners don’t always get the technology banned…but….
Source:

6. Redundancy of components Extra fireproofing Containment buildings
Authorities respond by imposing stricter regulation ……Nuclear power costs have increased because of safety regulation
Redundancy of components
Extra fireproofing
Containment buildings
Core meltdown prevention
Protection against crashing planes
Protection against floods

7. But renewable energy was supported by feed-in tariffs etc
Source:

8. It was started by little people.....
"Knowing that our energy stocks of coal, oil, gas and uranium are limited, we are surprised that since the first energy crisis in 1973 nothing really effective has been done to initiate relevant research and to sort out legislation related to renewable energy … It puzzles me that the state energetically talks about and plans energy only related to coal, oil, gas and uranium. Only in passing remarks is the energy from the wind and sun mentioned, well knowing that the first mentioned energy sources are limited, whereas the wind and sun are inexhaustible.’’ Source;
Danish Wind Turbine Owners Association formed in November 1978

9. Green pressures
So while wind and solar power gained market share supported by incentives/subsidies (supported by greens)
Nuclear costs increased because of green pressures on safety issues
Costs of solar and wind power have fallen
Renewables began to be taken up by multinational companies

10. https://upload. wikimedia

11. Recent offshore wind costs (note costs include grid connection, est in cases of Danish aad Dutch)
Hollandse Kust Zuid (Dutch) March est £45 per MWh (‘subsidy free’) (700 MW)
Kriegers Flak (Danish) November £50 per MWh (400 MW)
Hornsea 2 and Moray Firth East (UK) September £57.50 per MWh (2350 MW)
Compared to Hinkley C nuclear power at £92.50 per MWh
But only recently offshore wind costs were £ per MWh
Why the change?

12. Comparison between offshore and onshore wind levellised costs in 2012
Offshore costs in 2010: £150 per MWh
Source: Adapted from Fei 2017, Figure 5,

13. Reducing offshore wind costs
2012 cost: £150 per MWh
Increase size and optimise supply chain to reduce foundation and installation costs (reduce cost to £100 per MWh)
Increase production and reduce maintenance (reduce costs to £80 per MWh)
Reduce cost of capital (reduce costs to £50 per MWh) new cost of £50 per MWh

14. Big energy companies are now making renewable energy the central part of their energy business

15. But bottom up innovation still important
Creating virtual power systems
Batteries, demand response, renewables….a decentralised energy revolution