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DIRECTORATE GENERAL FOR INTERNAL POLICIES
CONSTITUTIONAL AFFAIRS The Institutional Consequences of a ‘Hard Brexit’
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Introduction Hypothesis: ‘Hard Brexit’ - No withdrawal agreement
- No transition - No framework for future relations Unlikely but not impossible - Northern Irish question
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Structure Institutional implications Budgetary implications
Policy implications Conclusions
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1) Institutional implications
EU institutions: ‘Hard Brexit’ = Brexit European Council Council Commission Parliament Court of Justice Central Bank Immediate effect Until end of mandate No effect
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2) Budgetary implications
EU budget: ‘Hard Brexit’ -> major challenge for budget 2019 & 2020 But from a legal viewpoint: UK has already accepted obligation to pay -> good faith under international law Difficulties due to lack of mandatory adjudication forum and enforcement
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3) Policy implications EU policy: ‘Hard Brexit’ -> major changes particularly in fields: a) Commerce & trade No more free movement + WTO b) Security & Justice No more AFSJ cooperation + CoE Particular challenges for Ireland
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Conclusion ‘Hard Brexit’ = negative scenario
Implications: limited for EU institutions but major for EU budget and policies Possible contingency measures: GATT Art. XXIV(3) -> customs Intergov’t cooperation -> security But risks and legal limitations
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Presentation by Federico FABBRINI Full Professor of EU Law & Director,
Brexit Institute – Dublin City University Policy Department Citizens’ Rights and Constitutional Affairs Responsible Administrator: Eeva ERIKSSON
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