1. Preview Global warming effects on hurricanes ADCP Network
Operation Forecast Model

2. Global Warming & Hurricanes
Purpose: Estimate effect of global warming on hurricane activity over next yrs
Scope
Focus on Gulf of Mexico
Validate model by hindcasting 10 yr
Run model for 2 decades in the next 50 yr
Contractor: National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Budget & Schedule
$600k
Aug 08-Dec 09

3. Industry ADCP Network Program Renewed Real-time upper water column
~ 20 permanent sites & increasing
~20 MODU’s
GPS location embedded

4. Gulf of Mexico Operational Current Model
Goals & Scope
Improve present forecasting
Primary emphasis on deep water (Loop)
Set stage for “Community” model
Budget: $1.5 M
Jun 2009-Dec 2011
Improvements will come from:
Routine assessment
Better initial conditions, e.g. MMS measure.
Ensembling of single model
Ensembling of multiple models
Pooling “community” expertise
Status
Forming team with myself, C. Mooers (PI) along with key modeling partners

5. Modeling: Major Tasks Identify user needs & benefits
Model intercomparison
Navy, NOAA, Private models
Hindcast 1-yr & compare
Forecast 3-mo period
Explore ensembling
Select model(s)
Run operational model
Issue routine forecasts to key users
Gather feedback
Develop strategy for sustainable community model

6. GCOOS Role? Short term Long term
Member(s) on Scientific Advisory Board
Handle web distribution?
Education/outreach?
User survey?
Long term
Continue to distribute products?
Operate model?