1. FACING ENERGY SECURITY IN THE AMERICAS THROUGH AGROENERGY SOURCES
Roberto Rodrigues
Washington / USA - October, 28th OAS

2. The ten biggest problems for the humanity in the next 50 years
AGRICULTURE
Energy Education Water Democracy Food Population Environment Disease Poverty Terrorism & war
Source: Alan MacDiarmid, em São Carlos – SP
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3. Trends
Changes in the demand: Sustainability: Economical, social and environmental - flavor
- quality
- traceability
- health
- environment
- organic products 3
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4. Demographic trends: + 62.0% Trends Food Demand (2000 – 2025) China
Increase.%
Part.%
2025
China
13.2%
17.4%
India
36.6%
16.8%
Africa
68.9%
15.4%
World
33.9%
100%
Food Demand (2000 – 2025)
+ 62.0%
Source: Bourlaug, N., Agroanalysis, Vol. 27, nº 03 (março/2007)
Elaboration: GV Agro 4

5. Projection of the urban and rural population in the world
Trends
Projection of the urban and rural population in the world
Rural
Urban
billion of people
Source: ONU
Elaboration: GV Agro
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6. Participation in the world GDP
Trends
Evolution of GDP ( )
World: 4.6% a.a
Countries of G-7: 2.2% a.a
Developing countries: 7.1% a.a
Participation in the world GDP
2006
2013
Countries of G-7
Países do G-7
59.5% %
Others devoloped
15.8% %
Developing countries
24.7% % 6
Source: FMI Nota: PIB a preços de 2005
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7. World: offer and estimated demand for food
(in million tons)
Slide09.xls
Source: FAO (2003) Elaboration: AGE – MAPA ¹ all of consumed meats
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8. Global stockpiles
Source: USDA (out/08)
Elaboration GV Agro

9. Global stocks of grains
Production x Consumption*: total in the period (2000/ /08)
Brazil produces surpluses to supply the world stocks
Source: USDA Note: * Soybean, Corn, Wheat and Barley. In thousand tons Elaboração: GV Agro

10. Main products (by value) - 1965
Brazilian agribusiness exports
Main products (by value)
Source: UN COMTRADE
Elaboration: GV Agro
Agribusiness Exports: US$ 1.35 billion (84.4%)
Total Brazilian Exports: US$ 1.59 billion 10
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11. Main products (by value)
Brazilian agribusiness exports
Main products (by value) 11
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12. Brazilian Agribusiness Exports
US$ 20.5 bi
US$ 63.9 bi
Developing Countries
from US$ 6.2 bi to US$ 29.1 bi
Variation ( *): +21.3% a.a.
Developed Countries
from US$ 14.4 bi to US$ 34.8 bi
Variation ( *): +11.7% a.a. 12
Source: Aliceweb-MDIC Nota: * from jun/07toa mai/ Elaboration: GV Agro
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13. Brazilian production of grain
million tons
The use of high technology resulted on an increase of 99% in productivity at the period from 1990/1991 to 2007/08. 13
Source: CONAB Elaboration: GV Agro
* 1ª Estimate (october/2008)
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14. Brazil: meat production
Broiler +200%
Beef +77%
Slide03.xls
Pork +130% 14
Sources: ABIEC, ABEF e ABIPECS Notes: *Estimative
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15. 21st Century: the beginning of a New Era%
Challenge: TO DIVERSIFY ENERGY SOURCES Up to 2030, the world demand for energy should increase 58%.
Sources: Nakícenovic, Grübler and MaConald, and Energy Information Administration - EIA/USA
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16. Why biofuels?
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17. Organization of the market
• More countries producing
• Elimination of myths
• Global strategy 17
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18. Energetic matrix – Brazil and World
More countries producing
Energetic matrix – Brazil and World
World
Brazil
Participation in the total consumption
Renewable sources: 45.8%
2.1% % %
In 2007, sugarcane became the second main source of energy in Brazil.
World total: 11,434 Mtep
Source: MME/BEN (2007) Elaboration: GV Agro
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19. Tropical region: favourable to the sugarcane production
More countries producing
Energy: consumption per capita (2006)
Tropical region: favourable to the sugarcane production
100 countries could supply biofuels to 200 nations, while currently 20 oil producers provide fossil fuels to the rest of the World.
Tons oil equivalent
Source: BPStatistical Review of World Energy Elaboration: GV Agro
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20. Substitution of part of the gasoline 3 CENARIOS: E-5, E-10 and E-20
Market potential for ethanol
Substitution of part of the gasoline 3 CENARIOS: E-5, E-10 and E-20
World: potential demand for ethanol (billion liters / year)
Demand for planted area 34,4 million ha (using E-20)
Worldwide demand for ethanol in the 3 cenarios (billion liters / year): and
Sources: IEA, CONAB e IBGE Notas: para o cálculo da área, considerou-se um rendimento de litros/ha Elaboration: GV Agro

21. There is still a lot of arable land worldwilde
“Taking these data at face value, and in relative terms, there is greatest potential for agricultural expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa and in South and Central America, which together form over 70% of the global potential increase.”
Source: LAND RESOURCE POTENTIAL AND CONSTRAINTS AT REGIONAL AND COUNTRY LEVELS FAO Rome, 2000

22. Ethanol world production: projection to 2012
Note: projections 2008/2012 are based on the capacity of production and the target of consumption of the main countries
Source: Fapri, Acti, FO Licht, Unica and Toepfer Elaboration: UNICA 22
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23. Emissions of CO2 in 2005: 20 main polluters
Eliminating all myths
Emissions of CO2 in 2005: 20 main polluters
50% of
emissions 23
Source: Embrapa Monitoramento por Satélite Elaboration: GV Agro
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24. Ethanol from corn (USA) Ethanol from sugarcane (Brazil)
Emission of GHG through the replacement of gasoline by ethanol
Ethanol from corn (USA)
Ethanol from beet (E.U)
Ethanol from sugarcane (Brazil)
Compared to diesel, biodiesel reduces in about 50% of the CO2 emissions.
The replacement of 1,000 buses (diesel) by buses that use ethanol would avoid the emission of 96 tons of CO2 per year, equivalent to emissions of 20,000 cars with gasoline.
Since 1970, is estimated that the use of ethanol in Brazil has avoided emissions of 644 million tons of CO2 and 25.8 million tons last year. 24
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25. Production with sustainability
Eliminating all myths
Production with sustainability
Source: IBGE and CONAB

26. Production (million tons)
Eliminating all myths
Sugarcane: evolution of the productivity
Production (million tons)
7.1 million of ha were preserved
Preserved Area **
Planted Area (million ha)
Source: IBGE (Censo Agropecuário: ; PAM (1990 até 2006); e LSPA (2007 e 2008) Elaboration: GV Agro Note: * Estimate **Area calculated by the productivity of 1970
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27. Eliminating all myths
Balance of energy
Energy contained in the fuel / Used fossil energy to produce fuel
9.3
* Fuel completely not renewable has value lower than 1. * Values superior to 1 indicate how much renewable is the fuel.
Source: World Watch Institute
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28. Biofuels: production costs-
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00 04 05 06 07
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Sugar cane
Maize
Rape oil
Sugar beet
Wheat
Brazil
USA EU
US$/l gasoline equivalent
Year, fuel type, country
Energy costs
Processing
costs
Feedstock Co
product
value
Net price
gasoline
Net costs, total
Source: OECD

29. Brazil: Automobiles and light vehicles – fleet projection (2006 to 2015)
million of vehicles
Sources: ANFAVEA, MAPA and ICONE

30. Soil and climate adapted to the sugarcane production without irrigation
Eliminating all myths
Excluded the Amazon Region, Pantanal and declivity superior to 12%
Source: UNICAMP
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31. Brazil: herd of cattle x pasture
Eliminating all myths
Brazil: herd of cattle x pasture
pasture area
cattle (heads)
Slide04.xls
More efficient livestock liberation of land for the agriculture
Source: IBGE (Censo Agropecuário) e IEA/SP Elaboration: GV Agro *lotação média de São Paulo (2006)
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32. Energy content of the sugarcane
Global strategy
Energy content of the sugarcane
Energy contained in 1,000 tons of sugarcane (tons in petroleum equivalent )
Slide12.xls
Total energy: tons in petroleum equivalent
Source: Nastari, Lisbon, 2000

33. Estimates of the potential of bioeletricity in Brazil
Global strategy
Estimates of the potential of bioeletricity in Brazil
The bagasse resulting from the processing of the cane represents 30% of the total volume. Raw material for the bioeletricity production
Source: Cogen and Unica
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34. Participation of the products in the income of the sector
Sugar
Ethanol
Exports
Domestic
Bioelectricity - Potential -
51%
32%
Source: UNICA Note: For the calculation of the percentile of 2015/16 it was used as base the potential for production and export at constant prices of 2006.

35. Challenges to the sector
• Commercial limitations? protected markets internal oil protection self-sufficiency (target of the countries) low/high prices cycles • Constant Expansion of the Offer offer and demand balance investments
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36. Challenges to the sector
• Sectorial Regulation • Research and Development • Planning • Administration
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37. The ethanol certifications “Babel”
National Certifications
EU Directives
European Union
ETHANOL
PBCB Brazilian Biofuel Program Certification
Brazilian Government
Biofuel Certification Meó Consulting Team
German Government
Sustainable Production of Biomass Cramer Commission
Dutch Government
RTFO Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation
UK Government
Institutional Certifications
RTSB Round Table on Sustainable Biofuels
Based in Switzerland
Certifications proliferation schemes is counterproductive: discourages initiatives and investments, particularly in developing countries.
BSI
Better Sugarcane Initiative
Based in United Kingdom
Deprived certifications
SEKAB, GREENERGY
Sweden, United Kingdom 37
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38. Thank You! 
 +55 (11)
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