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Prof Mark Swilling Centre for Complex Systems in Transition

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Presentation on theme: "Prof Mark Swilling Centre for Complex Systems in Transition"— Presentation transcript:

1 Resource Decoupling and the Sustainability Transition: the Case of Water
Prof Mark Swilling Centre for Complex Systems in Transition School of Public Leadership Stellenbosch University

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5 Footprinting Materials: 6t/c Materials: 8t/c CO2: 2.2 t/cap

6 International Resource Panel
Co-lead authors: M. Fischer-Kowalski Mark Swilling UNEP’s International Resource Panel is conducting a series of assessments that seek to support sustainable use of resources and to reduce the impact of any resources that are being uses. In other words, it is finding ways to decoupling resource consumption and negative environmental impacts from economic development. The study presented here explores some of the challenges of decoupling, drawing of existing literature and case studies from four countries. In future work, it expects to identify ways of meeting these challenges and providing insights from additional country-level case studies.

7 Four categories of primary raw materials
Construction minerals Fossil fuels This first approach to decoupling addressed four categories of raw materials, shown here. Other important resources, such as water and soil and land resources, are being addressed by other working groups of the International Resource Panel, and the Metals Working Group has provided important material to this study. Metal Ores & industrial minerals Biomass

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9 International Panel on the Sustainable Use of Natural Resources
1 June 2010 International Panel on the Sustainable Use of Natural Resources

10 International Panel on the Sustainable Use of Natural Resources
1 June 2010 International Panel on the Sustainable Use of Natural Resources

11 Resource prices on the rise, recently
The price index for minerals is closely coupled that that for food, with food prices especially sensitive to oil prices due to the importance of oil for driving farm machinery, producing fertilizers and pesticides, running irrigation systems, providing transport and refrigeration, and so forth. The use of some food crops as biofuels also complicates the picture, as indicated by an earlier report from the International Resource Panel.

12 Decoupling: resource & impact
Resource use Human well-being Economic activity (GDP) Environmental impact Resource decoupling Impact decoupling

13 A Socio-metabolic cycles + fossil fuels, minerals & metals, 8.7b ha of land, extract 120 b tons of stuff+ pollution temp spaces, meat, wild food, fire soils, land, building materials water biomass fossil fuels, - pollution Materials + renewable energy Agricultural epoch industrial epoch sustainability era? Hunter/ gatherers over years ago 250 years ago start of the Anthropocene Last ice Age – years ago Adapted from: Fischer-Kowalski, M. et. al Socioecological transitions and global change.

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15 Water Region Projected Change from 2005 to 2030 China 61% India 58%
Rest of Asia 54% Sub-Saharan Africa 283% North America 43% Europe 50% South America 95% Oceania 109%

16 Water stressed areas (405 dead zones in 2005)

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22 Solutions reduce non-revenue water (i.e. losses)
radical water efficiency measures, especially in agriculture reconfigure urban water and sanitation systems – closed loop water management decentralization

23 Problems in the catchment
Farm unrest – mechanization - unemployment Water quality (Breede) Water quantity (Breede) small farmer development programs – more water demand Adherence to environmental and water laws Export fruit – pollution detection Electricity usage – water pumping Policy makers who lack a systems perspective Research - band-aid for old problems

24 A complex system Courtesy of Prof. W Flügel, Jena Germany

25 Expected solutions Providing more jobs Lower electricity usage
Rural livelihoods – more small farmers Lower environmental footprint Better water quality and quantity Make it easier for farmers to operate within the legislation Better control over river health Better water metering Etc….

26 Examples Water distribution schemes that comply Those that don’t
Teewater – Franschoek – Jonkershoek scheme. Blydepoort - 95% effective Those that don’t Breede River Berg River Oliphant's River

27 Taking stock of water in Breede (WRC Report)
Only 30% of precipitation captured in dams in dams Recorded canal seepage losses - 24% Total water losses - 36% Total water applied 63% (supply-losses) Total scheme return flow 38% (% of water entering irrigation systems returned to the river) Water effectively used 10% of total supplied – massive oversupply, partly to deal with salt buildup

28 Proposed BREEDE System
System perspective Focus: retain potential energy in the system – link all dams into one interconnected grid, with dams brought to a unified water level (like the Teewaterkloof-Franschoek-Eerste river system). Outlets of dams get linked to the grid Dams should also allow direct flows to the river The grid should be allowed to compensate upstream dams Buffer against climate change - resilient

29 Example of dam linked to a grid and allowing normal flows

30 Advantages Better and more water – supplied under pressure
Lower electricity usage – much lower need to pump water Better buffered against climate change Smallholders will receive pressurized water Better quality and more affordable produce Better ecological aspects, ecosystem services

31 Collaboration


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