1. “Earned Schedule and Earned Value Management” The trend mentioned in PMBOK Guide 6 -th edition
Presented by Mikayel Nshanyan, PMP®

2. Structural Changes in PMBOK Guide 6 –th Edition
TRENDS AND EMERGING PRACTICE IN PROJECT COST MANAGEMENT
“Within the practice of Project Cost Management, trends include the expansion of earned value management (EVM) to include the concept of earned schedule (ES)”.
PMBOK Guide 6 –th Edition, 2017, Ch. 7, p. 233

3. $ Contract Budget Base Time Scope - WBS Management Reserve Schedule
Performance Measurement Baseline
Budget
$25K
$12K
$55K
$37K
$45K
$14K
Time

4. Earned Value Management is needed because...
In a single integrated system, Earned Value Management is able to provide accurate forecasts of project performance problems, which is an important contribution for project management.
It provides an “early warning” signal for prompt corrective action
Still time to recover
Timely request for additional resources.

5. Historical Background of EVM
Cost/Schedule Control Systems Criteria (C/SCSC), 1967;
US Department of Defense (DoD)
EVM System (EVMS), 1998; ANSI /EIA
PMBOK Guide 2 –nd, 3 –rd, 4 –th, 5 –th, 6 – th Editions; PMI®
Practice Standard for Eearned Value Management, 2005, 2011; PMI®
Including EVM in PMP Certification Exam Program since 2000; PMI®

6. Use of EVM EVM is now used in projects and programs world-wide.
Primary users include the US, Europe, UK, Canada, Australia, China and Japan.
EVM is a requirement of many US agencies, including the Department of Defence (DoD), NASA, the Department of Energy (DoE), the Intelligence Community, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the Department of Transportation (DoT), the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and others.
EVM is applicable not only to waterfall but also to agile projects.

7. Benefits of EVM usage
There are significant benefits to the contractor and to the customer.
Contractor benefits include increased visibility and control to quickly and proactively respond to issues, which makes it easier to meet project schedule, cost and technical objectives.
Custormer benefits include confidence in the contractor`s abiity to manage the project, identify problems early and provide objective, rather than subjective, contract cost and schedule status.

8. Basic Terms in EVM
PV – Planned Value
Planned cost of the total amount of work scheduled to be performed to date.
AC – Actual Cost
Cost actually incurred to accomplish the work that has been done to date.
EV – Earned Value
The planned (not actual) cost of work that has been done to date.

9. Some Derived Metrics Cost Variance (CV): CV = EV – AC
Schedule Variance (SV): 
SV = EV – PV
Cost Performance Index (CPI):
CPI = EV / AC
Schedule Performance Index (SPI):
 SPI = EV / PV

10. Earned Value Metrics
Method to measure project performance against scope, schedule and cost baseline (performance measurement baseline)
Interpretation of basic EVM performance measures
Performance
Measures
Schedule
SV > 0; SPI > 1
SV = 0; SPI = 1
SV < 0; SPI < 1
Cost
CV > 0; CPI > 1
Ahead of schedule,
Under budget
On schedule,
Under the budget
Behind schedule,
CV = 0; CPI = 1
On budget
CV < 0; CPI < 1
Over budget

11. EVM - Graphical Representation
Time
Cost
Schedule
Variance (SV)
Variance
(CV)
ACTUAL
PLAN
EARNED
VALUE
Estimate at Completion
Budget at Completion
Projection of Schedule: delay at completion
Projection of cost: variance at completion
(VAC)
Status date
BAC
EAC AC EV PV
Project is over budget and behind schedule

12. Project Performance Variances
Cost ×
Ahead schedule: SV > 0 × × EV AC
Under budget (saving): CV > 0 PV
Status date
Time

13. Project Performance Variances
Behinde schedule (delay): SV < 0
Cost × × PV AC
Under budget (saving): CV > 0 EV
Time
Status date

14. Project Performance Variances
Behinde schedule (delay): SV < 0
Cost PV × × × AC EV
Over budget (overspending): CV < 0
Time
Status date

15. Project Performance Variances
Cost
Over budget (overspending): CV < 0 × × × AC EV
Ahead schedule: SV > 0 PV
Time
Status date

16. Project Cost Forecusting in EVM
Variances are atypical:
EAC = AC + ( BAC - EV )
Past estimating assumptions are not valid:
EAC = AC + ETC
Variances will be present in the future and time is the constrain:
EAC = AC + ( BAC - EV ) / (CPI cum * SPI cum )
Project will be continued on the same rate of spending:
EAC = BAC/ CPI cum

17. Example Month PV, $K PV Cum ,$K EV, $K EV Cum ,$K SV cum ,$K SPI cum.1
100 90
- 10
0.90 2
200 85
175
- 25
0.86 3
300 80
255
- 45
0.85 4
400 75
330
- 70
0.83 5
500
405
- 95
0.81 6
600 70
475
- 125
0.79 7 -
545
- 55
0.91 8 55
1.00

18. SPI at the End of the Project
Project’s status: actually project finished 2 months late
EVM calculation: final SPI = 1.00; final SV = $ 0
1.2
1.1
1.0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Time 7 8
0.9
0.8
0.7
2 months
Planned finish
Actual finish

19. Limitations of Basic EVM
Exact measurements of Earned Value (Physical work completed) may not be accurate
There may be problems with critical activities hiden in Cumulative Earned Value (EV cum)
EVM is not applicable for controlling and forecasting of project schedule at the last stage (after 70% of work completion), especially for late projects:
SV = 0, SPI = 1 even for delayed projects, which is not correct.

20. Earned Schedule History
Developed by Wolt Lipke in
Included as an appendix in PMI Practice Standard for EVM, 2 -nd Edition, 2011
Referred as an extension to EVM in PMI PMBOK Guide 6 –th Edition, 2017

21. Schedule Metrics in Cost Units
Cost, $K
PV = $300K
EV = $200K
SV ($) = EV – PV = - $100K
SPI ($) = EV / PV = 0.67
600
500
400 PV
300
SV ($)
200
100 EV
Jan
Feb
Mar
Time
Status day

22. Schedule Metrics in Time Units
Cost, $K
Planned Duration (D)
600
500
400 PV
300
200
100 EV
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Time
Status day
Earned Schedule (ES)
Actual Time (AT)

23. Schedule Metrics in Time Units
Earned Schedule (ES) is the time when the current earned value was planned to be accomplished, in other words,
ES is the time at which PV supposed to be equal to the current EV.
Actual Time (AT) is the time passed from the project start.
Planned Duration (PD) is the planned duration of the project
SV(t) = ES – AT = 2m – 3m = - 1m
SPI(t) = ES / AT = 2m / 3m = 0.67

24. Schedule Metrics in Time Units
Cost, $K
Planned Duration (PD) = 6 months
600
500 PV
400 EV
300
200
100
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Time
Earned Schedule (ES) = 6 months
Actual Time (AT) = 8 months

25. Schedule Performance Checking the End of Project
EV = $600K
PV = BAC = $600K
SV($) = EV – PV = 0
SPI($) = EV / PV = 1
ES = 6 months
PS = ES = 6 months
SV(t) = ES – AT = 6 – 8 = - 2 months
SPI(t) = ES / AT = 6 / 8 = 0.75
At the end of the project, SV(t) and SPI(t) remain good indicators of project status, while SV($) and SPI($) end up at 0 and 1, respectively, regardles 2 months delay of project completion.

26. Schedule Fraction Calculation
Cost, $K
600
500 PV
400
300 EV EV
200
100
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Time
Status day
Earned Schedule (ES)
Actual Time (AT)

27. Schedule Fraction Calculation
Cost
PVMar EV q × × EV
PVFeb p p 1 PV
x / 1 = p / q x = p / q
p = EV - PVFeb
q = PVMar - PVFeb
x = (EV - PVFeb) / (PVMar - PVFeb) EV
X = ?
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Time
Earned Schedule (ES)

28. Schedule Fraction Calculation
Cost
PV k = 1 EV q × × EV
PV k p p 1 PV
x = p / q
p = EV – PV k
q = PV k + 1 – PV k
x = (EV – PV k) / (PV k +1 – PV k) EV
X = ?
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Time
ES = K + (EV - PVk) / (PVk+1 - PVk)
Earned Schedule (ES)

29. Schedule Fraction Calculation
Cost
EV st. day
= $250K
PVMar = $300K
PVFeb = $200K
PV k = 1
300 EV q EV × ×
PV k p p
200 1 PV
ES = K + (EV - PVF) / (PVM - PVF) =
= 2 m + (250 – 200) / (300 – 200) m =
= months EV
X = ?
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Time
Earned Schedule (ES)

30. Project Duration Forecasting
Estimated Duration At Completion (EDAC) is defined as
EDAT = AT + (PD – ESCum) / PF
where PF is a Performance Factor

31. Comparison of EV and ES equations
Status
Earned Value (EV)
Earned Schedule (ES)
Schedule Variance
SV$ = EV – PV
SVt = ES – AT
Schedule Performance
Indicator
SPI$ = EV / PV
SPIt = ES /AT
Ramaining Work
BAC - EV
PD – ES
Estimate At Complete
EAC$ = BAC / CPI
EAC$ = AC + (BAC – EV) / CPI
EACt = PD / SPIt
EACt = AT + (PD – ES) / SPIt
To Complete
Performance Index
TCPI = (BAC – EV) / (BAC – AC)
TCPI = (BAC – EV) / (EAC – AC)
TSPI = (PD – ES) / PD – AT)
TSPI = (PD – ES) / ED – AT)

32. SPI at the End of the Project
SPI(t)
Project status:
Project finished 2 months late
Final SPI(t) = 0.75
Final SV(t) = - 2 months
1.2
2 months
1.1
1.0
Time
0.9
0.8
0.7
Planned finish
Actual finish

33. Late Finished Project’s CV and SV

34. Late Finished Project’s CPI and SPI

35. Earned Duration Management A Novel Trends in Schedule Controlling
Earned Duration Management is a new approach to project schedule and duration performance management and measurements. (Khamooshi & Golafshani, 2014)
EVM and Earned Schedule use cost as base to measure schedule performance to control duration of the project.
While there is a correlation between schedule, cost, quality and scope of a project, using cost to control duration has proven to be misleading.
In contrast to Earned Value and Earned Schedule the Earned Duration Management (EDM) has decoupled schedule and cost performance measures.

36. Earned Duration Management
Its foundation lies in the exclusive usage of time-based data for the generation of physical progress indicators. Thus, schedule performance indicators become free from any dependency on planned cost values, and therefore, are no longer influenced by them.

37. Similarity between ED and ES calculation$
TRD Curve
PV Curve
TED Curve
Total Duration × ×
EV Curve
EV TED
Time
ES ED

38. Summary of EDM and EVM/ES metrics
Acronym
Description
Equation
EVM ED
Earned Duration ES
Earned Schedule AD
Actual Duration AT
Actual Time
TED
Total Earned Duration EV
Earned Values
TPD
Total Planned Duration PV
Planned Value
TAD
Total Actual Duration AC
Actual Cost
ES(t) / AD
DPI
Duration Performance Index
SPIt
Schedule Performance Index (ES)
EDI
Earned Duration Index
TED / TPD
SPI
Schedule Performance Index
EV / PV
TDV
Total Duration Variance
TED - TPD SV
Schedule Variance
EV - PV

39. Summary of EDM and EVM/ES metrics
Acronym
Description
Equation
EVM ED
Earned Duration ES
Earned Schedule AD
Actual Duration AT
Actual Time
TED
Total Earned Duration EV
Earned Values
TPD
Total Planned Duration PV
Planned Value
TAD
Total Actual Duration AC
Actual Cost
DPI
Duration Performance Index
ED(t) / AD
SPIt
Schedule Performance Index (ES)
ES(t) / AD
EDI
Earned Duration Index
TED / TPD
SPI
Schedule Performance Index
EV / PV
TDV
Total Duration Variance
TED - TPD SV
Schedule Variance
EV - PV