1. Quarterly Economic Survey
Tudor Price
Deputy CEO

2. Established in
...covers every region and nation in the UK...
...monitored closely by the Bank of England, HMT, and European Commission...
...achieves over 6,000 responses from business per quarter, by far the largest business survey in the UK...

3. While UK growth ‘picked-up’ in Q2…

4. …forward looking indicators weaken…
Exchange rate – roughly 20% depreciation since the EU Referendum vote. Increasing prices at the factory gate – particularly for companies locked into contracts priced in Euros or Dollars.
Insurance premium tax – standard rate increasing from 10% to 12% on June 1st
Business rates – new bills from 1st April: some businesses (especially in large premises and the South of England faced big increases. These could be compounded if retail price inflation reaches nearly 4% in September as the OBR expects)
Apprenticeship Levy – if your pay bill is above £3m per year then you are levied at 0.5% of your pay bill. Most companies do not expect to recoup the benefits in training subsidies
Pensions auto-enrolment – the remainder of the UK business population will be ‘staged-in’ over this year – some from April 1st
NLW – to increased from £7.20 to £7.50 for 25+ from April 1st

5. …recruitment difficulties increase...

6. …the balance of firms reporting improved cash flow rises slightly…

7. Exchanges rates and competition the key concerns for business

8. …BCC forecast prolonged period of ‘subdued’ growth
Current forecast (2018 Q2)
BCC Economic Full Forecast (Annual % change)
2017
2018
2019
2020
GDP
1.8%
1.3%
1.4%
1.6%
Household Consumption
1.7%
1.0%
General government
0.1%
1.1%
Investment
4.0%
1.2%
of which: Business Investment
2.4%
0.9%
Exports
5.7%
2.8%
2.9%
Imports
3.2%
2.5%
3.0%
Unemployment rate %*
4.4%
4.5%
CPI inflation
2.7%
2.3%
1.9%
Average earnings
Interest rates (Q4)*
0.41
0.75
1.00
Exchange rate – roughly 20% depreciation since the EU Referendum vote. Increasing prices at the factory gate – particularly for companies locked into contracts priced in Euros or Dollars.
Insurance premium tax – standard rate increasing from 10% to 12% on June 1st
Business rates – new bills from 1st April: some businesses (especially in large premises and the South of England faced big increases. These could be compounded if retail price inflation reaches nearly 4% in September as the OBR expects)
Apprenticeship Levy – if your pay bill is above £3m per year then you are levied at 0.5% of your pay bill. Most companies do not expect to recoup the benefits in training subsidies
Pensions auto-enrolment – the remainder of the UK business population will be ‘staged-in’ over this year – some from April 1st
NLW – to increased from £7.20 to £7.50 for 25+ from April 1st

9. Business Support Update

10. Current Programmes in West Kent
West Kent Business Advice
First 2hrs of business advice free
LEADER
Rural grant programme
Southeast Business Boost
30 % intervention up to a max of £10K
12hrs business advice
LOCASE Grant scheme
40% intervention up to a max of £20K
KEEP+
50% intervention up to a max of £12,500
Graduate internship
Research collaboration (larger grant)
Exchange rate – roughly 20% depreciation since the EU Referendum vote. Increasing prices at the factory gate – particularly for companies locked into contracts priced in Euros or Dollars.
Insurance premium tax – standard rate increasing from 10% to 12% on June 1st
Business rates – new bills from 1st April: some businesses (especially in large premises and the South of England faced big increases. These could be compounded if retail price inflation reaches nearly 4% in September as the OBR expects)
Apprenticeship Levy – if your pay bill is above £3m per year then you are levied at 0.5% of your pay bill. Most companies do not expect to recoup the benefits in training subsidies
Pensions auto-enrolment – the remainder of the UK business population will be ‘staged-in’ over this year – some from April 1st
NLW – to increased from £7.20 to £7.50 for 25+ from April 1st

11. On the Horizon Scale Up West Kent
Intensive high growth support (Scale Up Institute)
SECCADS (South East Creative, Cultural and Digital Sector)
12hrs of support
Grant scheme
Workshops
Technology and Innovation in Logistics (TAIL)
1-2-1 business support
Exchange rate – roughly 20% depreciation since the EU Referendum vote. Increasing prices at the factory gate – particularly for companies locked into contracts priced in Euros or Dollars.
Insurance premium tax – standard rate increasing from 10% to 12% on June 1st
Business rates – new bills from 1st April: some businesses (especially in large premises and the South of England faced big increases. These could be compounded if retail price inflation reaches nearly 4% in September as the OBR expects)
Apprenticeship Levy – if your pay bill is above £3m per year then you are levied at 0.5% of your pay bill. Most companies do not expect to recoup the benefits in training subsidies
Pensions auto-enrolment – the remainder of the UK business population will be ‘staged-in’ over this year – some from April 1st
NLW – to increased from £7.20 to £7.50 for 25+ from April 1st