1. Drag-Based Model of ICME Propagation
B. Vršnak1, T. Žic1, M. Dumbović1,
A. Veronig2, M. Temmer2, C. Möstl2, T. Rollett2
1 Hvar Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy, Zagreb, Croatia
2 IGAM/Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252)

2. Physical Background a = – g (v – w) |v – w| exchange of kinetic energy
and momentum
with ambient plasma
solar wind : MHD waves (collisionless)
air : collisions (pressure waves)
a = – g (v – w) |v – w|

3. CASE STUDIES Comparison of the modeled and observed ICME kinematics
(based on STEREO A&B data)

4. STATIST. TESTS & REAL-TIME FORECASTING
Optimal values, g = 2×10-8 km-1 and w = 450 km/s, have been found by minimizing the scatter of the difference between the observed and calculated transit times (O– C).

5. ONLINE TOOL & COMESEP ALERT SYSTEM
current option:
improved option (under development):