1. Long Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy for the Rail Industry
Rowan Smith
This will be Chris K-S fifth and final RSS, and my first.
RSS is published by RSSSG – manufacturers, lessors, owning groups and RDG
I have 33 years in the industry,
joined as an operator,
performance management – first delay attributor on UK rail!
Commercial role in mail trains, then DK, then freight
5 years in a ROSCO
10 years at DfT in Dpty Director role running up to 5 franchises

2. UK Rolling Stock Fleet – What’s in store?
Long Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy
UK Rolling Stock Fleet – What’s in store?
Passenger miles – Recession
1995 Recession
2001 gauge corner cracking
70s: HST; 313
80’s: 142/144/150; 315 / 317 / 319 / 321; 442 / 455 / 458
90’s: 156 / 158; 323 / 456 / 465 / 466;

3. Rolling Stock Strategy Steering Group
Long Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy
Rolling Stock Strategy Steering Group
History
Government wanted the industry to do some leading – DfT may not know best!
Opportunity for industry to set the scene
First edition of RSS in 2013
Objectives
Set out dimensions of industry-wide rolling stock requirements over a 30 year horizon in the context of:
Growth
Network developments
Government policy
Better Value for Money
How cost might be reduced
How capacity might be increased
How industry revenue might be increased
DfT wanting industry to show more leadership
Get industry thinking strategically, not just “£ from next franchise” - unaffordable
Belief that this might optimise VFM
Industry voice was “would have been cheaper, but specification / strategy put price up” – so how would industry have it to keep prices under control?
Strategy doesn’t look at how rolling stock meets franchise requirements, looks at what volume of various wheeled metal cages might be required at a point in time.
This is a volume led strategy…

4. Long Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy
What doesn’t the RSS do?
Doesn’t specify trains or say how they should be deployed!
So what does the RSS provide?
Factually based, bottom up forecast
Some credible figures – initial forecasts are “on track” for current deliveries
Strategic picture for government, key stakeholders and the supply industry
Scenarios for comparison / incorporation with other models – e.g. Initial Industry Advice
Does NOT say what should be specified or how it should be deployed!
Starts with
current fleet, by TOC, adds contracted growth
HMG economic forecasts
NR route plans / RSBPs with their L/M/H banding
Examines and takes view on trends
Govt policy
Political and other pressures e.g. diesel
Welcomed by Rail Executive
Shows what is faced given the assumptions made
Encourages investment. Know it has been used at board level.

5. Fleet Size and Composition – Medium Scenario
Long Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy
Fleet Size and Composition – Medium Scenario
Table to leave up while I take questions:
Note we use generic terms e.g.“self powered”. Diesel? Battery? Hydrogen cell?
The “distance” metric gives a feel for the role that rail fills in the transport market. It may give a feel for the fulfilment of specification, but it is meant to be vague.
Doors location is probably the most important factor.
Long distance probably not for commuting - £££ or layout – Pendolino
Over 6,000 new additional vehicles ORDERED for delivery by mid CP6
BUT c.3,000 vehicles come off-lease
Between 40% and 90% more vehicles by 2046
Currently c.13,500
+30% by 2029;
+44% by 2034 – with range from 40% to 90%