1. Overall Statistics RMSE WRF-UA: 159 W m-2 WRF-UCSD: 171 W m-2 STDERR
‘Bias-corrected RMSE’
WRF-UA: 165 W m-2
WRF-UCSD: 164 W m-2
Ratios compared to NAM
WRF-UA more accurate for 4/6 days
Forecast horizon
WRF-UCSD is more accurate for the first 6-7 hours of simulation time
RMSE Ratio to NAM
STDERR Ratio to NAM
Date
WRF-UA
WRF
8/10/2011
0.90
1.34
0.82
1.09
8/11/2011
0.92
0.61
0.49
8/12/2011
0.59
0.87
0.63
8/13/2011
0.36
0.51
0.34
0.53
8/14/2011
0.40
0.54
0.37
0.57
8/15/2011
0.70
0.79
0.66
0.76

2. WRF-UCSD performed much worse than WRF-UA
8/10/2011
WRF-UCSD performed much worse than WRF-UA
Not enough cloud cover (afternoon)
Scale of clouds
WRF-UA cloud scales are much smaller, despite WRF-UA having slightly coarser resolution (1.8 km vs. 1.3 km)
1500 UTC
1900 UTC
2200 UTC

3. WRF-UA
WRF-UCSD
8/12/2011
Largest improvement over WRF-UA
Cloud field burnoff
Timing captured by WRF-UCSD
Too many afternoon clouds in WRF-UA
WRF-UA has two distinct types of clouds from the model
1700 UTC
Clouds generated by PBL scheme? Shallow convection?
2000 UTC
2200 UTC