1. Grain and Oilseed Outlook
Omaha Ag Outlook
Omaha, Nebraska
Dec. 7, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
95.3
Yield
(bu./acre)
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
160.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
13,989
Beg. Stocks
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
824
Imports 8 28 29
162 25
Total Supply
14,774
14,182
13,517
11,932
14,837
Feed & Residual
5,125
4,795
4,557
4,333
5,200
Ethanol
4,591
5,019
5,000
4,648
4,900
Food, Seed, & Other
1,370
1,407
1,428
1,396
1,450
Exports
1,980
1,834
1,543
731
1,400
Total Use
13,066
13,055
12,528
11,108
12,950
Ending Stocks
1,887
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.89
4.50
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
76.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.8
43.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,034
3,258
Beg. Stocks
138
151
215
169
141
Imports 15 14 16 36
Total Supply
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,239
3,413
Crush
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,689
1,685
Seed & Residual
110
130 88 90
109
Exports
1,499
1,501
1,365
1,320
1,450
Total Use
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,098
3,243
Ending Stocks
170
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.40
12.15
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2013 Projected Yield
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

10. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

11. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Corn Grind for Ethanol

14. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

15. Current Corn Futures
4.39
4.28
4.17
Source: CME Group, 12/4/2013

16. Current Soybean Futures
12.42
11.01
10.86
Source: CME Group, 12/4/2013

17. Corn Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

18. Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

19. Crop Acreage
Source: USDA-NASS

20. Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS

21. Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Corn demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good
Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go?
Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term
2012/13
USDA
2013/14 USDA
2013/14
Futures
(12/4/13)
Corn
$6.89
$4.50
$4.17
Soybeans
$14.40
$12.15
$12.42

22. World Corn Markets
Source: USDA 22 22

23. Arable Land

24. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker:

25. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
59.2
53.6
54.4
55.7
56.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.5
46.3
43.7
47.2
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,218
2,207
1,999
2,266
2,130
Beg. Stocks
657
976
862
743
718
Imports
119 97
112
123
150
Total Supply
2,993
3,279
2,974
3,131
2,998
Food
919
926
941
945
950
Seed 69 71 76 73
Feed & Residual
132
162
388
310
Exports
879
1,289
1,051
1,007
1,100
Total Use
2,018
2,417
2,231
2,414
2,433
Ending Stocks
565
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.87
5.70
7.24
7.77
7.00
Source: USDA-WAOB 25 25

26. Winter Wheat Acreage
Source: USDA-NASS

27. Winter Wheat Production
Top: 2013 Projected Production
Bottom: % Change from last year
Units: Million bushels
Source: USDA-NASS

28. Durum Wheat Production
Top: 2013 Projected Production
Bottom: % Change from last year
Units: Million bushels
Source: USDA-NASS

29. Other Spring Wheat Production
Top: 2013 Projected Production
Bottom: % Change from last year
Units: Million bushels
Source: USDA-NASS

30. National Wheat Projections

31. National Wheat Projections

32. World Wheat Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 32 32

33. Wheat Export Pace
Source: USDA-FAS

34. Wheat Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

35. Current Wheat Futures
6.86
6.54
6.45
Source: CME Group, 12/6/2013

36. Iowa Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS

37. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)37 37

38. (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Liquid Fuel Usage
2007
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
(Percent of 2007 Value)
United States
20.6
98%
100%
102%
104%
107%
Canada
2.3
96%
Mexico
2.1
105%
110%
114%
129%
138%
Europe
15.3
92%
88%
89%
90%
Japan
5.0
84%
86%
82%
China
7.6
132%
153%
178%
201%
222%
India
2.8
139%
154%
168%
Africa
3.1
113%
116%
126%
135%
148%
Central and South America
6.0
112%
117%
125%
133%
World
86.1
103%
121%
128%
Source: DOE-EIA

39. Corn Prices vs. Costs

40. Carry vs. Costs
Carry shows the additional revenue that can be obtained from holding on to the crop
But there are costs to holding on:
storage
interest/opportunity costs
These are known as the cost of ownership

41. Why Crops Fail

42. Building a Marketing Plan
5 basic steps:
Estimate number of bushels/animals to sell
Calculate breakeven price
Project price and production scenarios
Compare pricing tools and analyze market opportunities
Develop a pricing plan

43. Marketing Types Harvest Averaging Price Target Time and Price
Extended Time and Price

44. Average Price Captured

45. Lowest Average

46. Highest Average

47. Longer History

48. Source: USDA

49. Iowa Land Values
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

50. Iowa Land Values – Log Scale
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

51. Land Values and Income
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

52. Land Values and Income
Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

53. Corn Prices and Recessions

54. Crop Prices for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS

55. Net Farm Income
Source: USDA

56. GDP Growth
Source: USDA-ERS

57. GDP Growth
Source: USDA-ERS

58. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: