1. Progress in modeling human population fronts
FEPRE European project
2nd annual workshop
St Petersburg
5-10 April 2008
Progress in modeling human population fronts
Joaquim Fort
Universitat de Girona
Catalonia, Spain

2. FEPRE work by the Girona group
Manchester (1st FEPRE workshop):
1. Time-ordered models → SUBMITTED 
2. Realistic dispersion kernels → IN PROGRESS
3. Non-isotropic models → PLANNED …
4. Genetic clines → PLANNED …

3. FEPRE work by the Girona group
St. Petersburg (2nd FEPRE workshop):
1. Time-ordered models → Phys. Rev. E 76, (2007)
2. Realistic dispersion kernels → talk by N. Isern
3. Non-isotropic models → New J. Phys. 76, (2007)
4. Genetic clines → 2-population models → New J. Phys. in press (2008)
→ talk by J. Pérez-Losada
  IMPACT FACTOR (SCI ) JOURNAL              7                      Phys. Rev. Lett.
New J. Phys Phys. Rev. E

4. Recent progress Non-isotropic models → New J. Phys. 76 031913 (2007)
Girona group:
Non-isotropic models → New J. Phys (2007)
Other groups:
M.J. Hamilton & B. Buchanan, PNAS (2007)
G. J. Ackland et al., PNAS (2007)
  IMPACT FACTOR (SCI ) JOURNAL                         Science            29                     Nature             14                     PLoS Biology             10                     PNAS
             7                      Phys. Rev. Lett.
New J. Phys Phys. Rev. E

5. Plan of this talk Time-delayed equation
Hamilton & Buchanan, PNAS (2007)
Girona group:
Non-isotropic models → New J. Phys. (2007)
G. J. Ackland et al., PNAS (2007)

6. Recall
<
F+M, Phys. Rev. Lett. (1999)

7. Hamilton & Buchanan, PNAS 104 15625 (2007)

8. Hamilton & Buchanan, PNAS 104 15625 (2007)
→ predicted speed: 2 km/yr
→ observed speed: 8 km/yr

9. Human prehistoric range expansion speeds
Location
Dates
(uncal
yr BP)
Speed
(km/yr)
Mainly
boats?
Ref.
North America 8 ?
Hamilton,
PNAS 2007
Oceania
>8
YES
Fort,
Antiquity 2003
Mediterranean
>10
Zilhao,
PNAS 2001
Levant+Europe Neolithic
11000-
4000 1 NO
Pinhasi, Fort & Ammerman,
PLoS Biol 2005
Europe lateglacial
Fort, Pujol & Cavalli-Sforza,
CAJ 2004
Levant+Europe modern humans
42000-
36000

10. Non-isotropic models · Manchester group:
· Davison, Dolukhanov, Sarson & Shukurov, J. Arch. Sci. (2006)
· FEPRE project application
· Girona group: F & Pujol, New J. Phys (2007)
isotropic
non-isotropic

11. Girona group: Non-isotropic models
F & Pujol, New J. Phys (2007)
front
non-isotropic

12. Human colonization of the U.S. during the XIX century
Individual migrations are biased against the front propagation direction

13. G. J. Ackland et al., PNAS 104 8714 (2007) X→F H→X acculturation
F= farmers with neolithic language, genes, etc. H= hunter-gatherers with paleolithic language, genes, etc. X= converts = farmers with paleolithic language, genes, etc.
H→X
acculturation
X→F
or F→ X
cultural
competition
(λ=0→Aoki,
no cultural
boundaries)

14. G. J. Ackland et al., PNAS (2007)

15. G. J. Ackland et al., PNAS 104 8714 (2007) Neolithic culture & genes
Paleolithic culture & genes
This is the only model known to predict cultural boundaries

16. Open problems Data from PLoS Biol (2005) Pinhasi, Fort & Ammerman,
Impact Factor (SCI)=14

17. Open problems Data from PLoS Biol (2005) Pinhasi, Fort & Ammerman,
Impact Factor (SCI)=14

18. Spread of genetic mutations
Recent progress Vlad, Cavalli-Sforza & Ross, PNAS (2004) Currant & Excoffier, Proc. Roy. Soc. B (2005) Open problem Comparison between simulated & observed clines

19. Aims of the FEPRE project Archeaological data + mathematical modelling → denied (2005) Roots in prehistory of present socio-cultural diversity → approved (2006)

20. Open problem