1. Mortgage Bankers Association
11/18/2018
An Update on the Mortgage Lending Business August Mike Fratantoni Chief Economist
Mortgage Bankers Association

2. MBA Forecast Outlook
Source: MBA Forecast

3. Incomes have not kept pace with shelter or total costs in recent years
Mortgage Bankers Association
11/18/2018
Incomes have not kept pace with shelter or total costs in recent years
1967 – 2007
Median Household Income: +5.0% average annual growth
Total Cost of Living: +4.7% average annual growth
Shelter Costs: +5.4% average annual growth
2007 – 2015
Median Household Income: +0.8% average annual growth
Total Cost of Living: +1.5% average annual growth
Shelter Costs: +1.9% average annual growth
Source: Census and BLS
Mortgage Bankers Association

4. Single-family Starts Improving, Multifamily Starts Slowing
Source: Census

5. Home Sales Still Below Pre-Recession Levels
Source: Census, NAR

6. Purchase Applications Ahead of Last Year
Source: MBA Weekly Applications Survey

7. Broad Improvement for Purchase Market
Mortgage Bankers Association
11/18/2018
Broad Improvement for Purchase Market
Source: MBA Weekly Applications Survey
Mortgage Bankers Association

8. Refinance Activity Burning Out Despite Low Rates

9. Changing FHA Credit Score Profiles

10. Estimated Originations 2000 to 2018
Mortgage Bankers Association
11/18/2018
Estimated Originations 2000 to 2018
484 refi / 638 pur
570 / %
379 / %
Source: MBA Forecast – July 2016
Mortgage Bankers Association

11. Changing Composition of Lending Institutions
Source: HMDA

12. Independent Mortgage Lenders Continue to Gain Market Share

13. Origination Business is Tough
Source: MBA’s Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report,

14. IMB Fully-Loaded Production Expenses ($ per loan):
Source: MBA’s Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report,

15. Personnel Expenses Have Increased
Source: MBA’s Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report,

16. Mix of Personnel Has Shifted
Source: MBA’s Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report,

17. Fully-Loaded Servicing Operating Costs of Performing and Non-Performing Loans*
* Includes direct cost to service, unreimbursed servicer-related foreclosure and REO costs (less lookbacks), compensatory fees, corporate allocation
Source: MBA’s Servicing Operations Study and Forum, Prime Servicers.

18. Mortgage Performance Improving with Job Market
Source: MBA National Delinquency Survey

19. Recent Loan Vintages Performing Extremely Well
Source: MBA National Delinquency Survey

20. MBA Research Sign-ups and Services
Mortgage Bankers Association

21. Mortgage Bankers Association
11/18/2018
Contact Information & MBA Resources
Mike Fratantoni
Chief Economist and SVP, Research and Industry Technology
RIHA:
MBA Research:
Mortgage Bankers Association