1. Step 1: List Causes & Constraints
Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.
This lecture discusses how you can create a causal model of your exercise habits. 
This research was funded by Grant RO1 HL from the National Heart Blood and Lung Institute.

2. Step 1: List Causes & Constraints
This lecture continues from the previous overview section
This lecture continues from the previous overview section.

3. Step 1: List Causes & Constriants
Causes lead to success
Constraint prevents causes from succeeding or directly lead to failure
A cause is defined as an event that leads to successful accomplishment of your resolution.  Taking your morning shower in the gym could be a cause of exercise.  Biking to work could be another cause of exercise.  These two are changes in daily routines that can cause increased exercise.  A constraint is an event that prevents a cause from occurring, e.g. rain prevents you from biking to work. 

4. An event Causes Are Events
Causes must meet the following criteria. First a cause is an event; it is not a physical object, a goal or an idea.  It must be possible for causes to change, at which point they become events. A reason for exercising is to stay healthy but this is not the cause of what makes us exercise. Staying healthy is not an event.

5. Causes Are a Sometime Thing
An event
Occurs some times
Only events that occur sometime and not all the time.  Sleeping early at night could be a cause of morning exercise because one does not always sleep early.   A desire to be healthy is not a cause of exercise because you presumably want to be healthy all the times. 

6. Causes Precede Effects
An event
Occurs some times
Must precede effect
Causes must precede their effects. Listening to music on the way home may be a cause of later exercise but listening to music during exercise is not a cause of exercise. The cause of exercise must precede it.

7. Causes & Effect Tend to Occur Together
An event
Occurs some times
Must precede effect
Frequent association
The targeted behavior should frequently, sometimes always, follow the cause.  Causes and effects have a strong association.  For example, most of the time that we plan to take a shower at the gym we may exercise or most of the time that we sleep early we exercise in the morning.  The association between cause and its effect is an empirical issue that should be verified through causal diaries, a term we will explain later.  If we do not exercise on the morning after nights in which we sleep early, then we no longer believe that sleeping early is a cause of exercise. 

8. Absent causes , absent effect
Counterfactual
An event
Occurs some times
Must precede effect
Frequent association
Absent causes , absent effect
When the causes are absent, the effect should be absent.  It should be possible to imagine a world where the cause is absent and the effect does not occur.  This is referred to as a counterfactual clause and is often apparent in statements like "I almost exercised if it were not for..." or "I would have exercise if it were not for ..."

9. Absent causes , absent effect
Describes a Mechanism
An event
Occurs some times
Must precede effect
Frequent association
Absent causes , absent effect
Describes a mechanism
A cause describes a mechanism through which the effect occurs.  By mechanism we refer to a series of events that follow each other before the effect emerges.  For example, sleeping early leads to waking up early and having extra time in the morning.  Having more time in the morning makes exercise more likely. 

10. Focus on Modifiable Causes
An event
Occurs some times
Must precede effect
Frequent association
Absent causes , absent effect
Describes mechanism
Modifiable
A cause must be modifiable, meaning that one must be able to remove the cause.  Many individuals think through large causes that they have no control over and miss smaller causes that they can manipulate and change.

11. Example Description Is an event? In next 2 weeks, is always present?
Precedes effect?
If causes absent, then no effect?
Mechanism clear?
Modifiable by the person?
Plan to shower at gym
Yes No
Yes, plans always precede exercise
Yes: "I would have exercised if I had showered at gym
Yes, shower at gym makes exercise more accessible
Yes, I can remove shower equipment from home
Plan to bike to work
Yes: "I would have exercised if it were not for the rain."
Yes, planning for biking leads to biking to work, which is exercise
Yes, I can arrange for a shower at work
Sleep early no
Yes, occurs the night before
Yes:  "I would have time to exercise if I had woken up early and not gone to bed late."
Yes, sleeping early leads to waking up early which provides us with time to exercise
Yes, I can record late shows for earlier viewing another day
Rain
Concurrent
Yes, on biking to work
A comprehensive list of causes and constraints includes all reasonable causes and constraints that might affect your behavior during a specific time, usually 2 weeks.  Each cause is listed and discussed on each criteria. It is important to list as many causes that might affect you in the allotted time period and not to list any cause that will not affect you during this time period.

12. Step 2: Make a Causal Model
Lecture Continues
Step 2: Make a Causal Model
This lecture continues in a separate video on how to make a model.