1. Why does novice driver safety improve after passing the driving test?
Prof Richard Rowe & Dr Damian Poulter
Young driver focus
april 25th, 2018

2. Trends in u.k. Crash rates
Car drivers involved in road crashes per million GB licence holders
Overall crash risk declining, but young drivers still pose greatest risk…
... but still relatively little understanding of why crash liability is so high
DfT, 2016

3. Learners are the safest drivers newly qualified drivers are the most dangerous
Crash rates are the highest in first month after beginning independent driving
Crash risk diminishes with experience from that point
Learner drivers are the safest on the road
People switch from the safest group to the most dangerous on the day they gain their licence
Imberger et al, 2017

4. driving skill and driving style: The driver behaviour questionnaire (reason et al., 1990)
Way drivers choose to drive (e.g, speed, rule-breaking)
Driving skill
Vehicle control & Reading the road
Both linked to increased crash risk in novice drivers De Winter et al., 2015

5. Overall crash liability
Cohort II study
10K+ UK drivers
Commissioned by the DfT
Wells et al, 2008

6. The development of risky style over time
Roman, G. D., Poulter, D., Barker, E., McKenna, F. P., & Rowe, R. (2015).
Novice drivers' individual trajectories of driver behavior over the first three years of driving.
Accident Analysis and Prevention, 82, doi: /j.aap

7. The development of self-reported skill failures over time
Roman, G. D., Poulter, D., Barker, E., McKenna, F. P., & Rowe, R. (2015).
Novice drivers' individual trajectories of driver behavior over the first three years of driving.
Accident Analysis and Prevention, 82, doi: /j.aap

8. Trajectories interpretation
Simple change in these behaviours does not seem to underlie reduction in crash rate
Pattern not compatible with decrease in crashes
Crash rate over time
Wells et al, 2008
Aggressive violations over time
Roman et al, 2015

9. Novice risk situations
So what does change?
Identifying situations where novices are at risk, and appear to get better with experience, a good place to start understanding change over time
Novice risk situations
Driving around bends
Following distance (rear-end shunts)
Driving at night
Turning right at junctions
Clarke et al, 2006

10. Potential explanations
Driving style
Risk-taking may get worse overall with experience
But drivers may be learning about a few key areas where risks must be controlled
e.g., driving too fast round bends
Driving skills
Skills not fully developed after passing test
Skills may be continuing to improve in early stages of independent driving
Car control
Situation awareness/hazard perception

11. Longitudinal Interview study
13 newly qualified drivers (17-19 years old, 6 males)
Interviewed each participant monthly after passing their test for 3 months
Asked them how their driving was now and how it had developed over past month
Regarding high risk situations and in general
Day, M. R., Thompson, A. R., Poulter, D. P., Stride, C. B., & Rowe, R. (in press).
Why do drivers become safer over the first three months of driving? A longitudinal qualitative study.
Accident Analysis & Prevention. 

12. Drivers all report driving faster as experience gained
Driving style
it's not as thrilling anymore….. it was like when I first did it I was like oh I'm driving…. now I'm just like eurghh...got to drive
Drivers all report driving faster as experience gained
Counter to improving safety
Thrill becomes less common
Could contribute to safety improvement
[On] country roads I’ve never gone over but I do like the ability to be able to drive cos... its like you’ve got no limitations and it is an adrenalin
Day, M. R., Thompson, A. R., Poulter, D. P., Stride, C. B., & Rowe, R. (in press).
Why do drivers become safer over the first three months of driving?
A longitudinal qualitative study. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 

13. Driving skill Report improvements in control and situation awareness
Potential to underlie improving road safety
“I’m struggling with the idea of ‘will I stall it in their path’, so I’d rather just wait for a gap…so I will just sit there for massive gaps (laughs)”.
“… it's just a natural thing now, it’s like walking, I can get in a car and just drive...”
Day, M. R., Thompson, A. R., Poulter, D. P., Stride, C. B., & Rowe, R. (in press).
Why do drivers become safer over the first three months of driving?
A longitudinal qualitative study. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 

14. Graduated Driver Licencing
What can we do?
Graduated Driver Licencing
Clear, consistent evidence for crash/casualty/fatality reduction in young & novice drivers Shope, 2007; Russell et al, 2011
Commitment to saving lives as well as reduce economic cost
Public support for reduction of novice driver casualties & GDL schemes Shope, 2007; Jones et al, 2015
Post-licence parental monitoring
Parent-imposed driving limits associated with positive driving outcomes Prato et al, 2010; Simons-Morton et al, 2006
Increase perceived legitimacy for introducing GDL scheme
Risk of self-selection bias

15. Greater understanding of factors predicting crash involvement
Where do we go from here?
Take action
Cannot afford to continue ignoring evidence-based solutions
Comprehensive community approach
Greater understanding of factors predicting crash involvement
On-going research & evaluation needed
Identify key risk factors to inform intervention

16. Project team
Prof Richard Rowe (University of Sheffield)
Dr Damian Poulter (University of Greenwich)
Dr Andrew Thompson (University of Sheffield)
Dr Chris Stride (University of Sheffield)
Prof Frank McKenna (University of Reading)
Dr Edward Barker (King’s College, London)
Mrs Marianne Day (University of Sheffield)
Project partners
Graham Grayson (Transport Research Laboratory)
Barry Sexton (Transport Research Laboratory)
Driving Instructors Association
South Yorkshire Safer Roads Partnership
IAM Roadsmart
First Car Young Drivers Club