1. Recovery and Financial Markets
John Ryding, Chief Market Economist February 20, 2002 1

2. Recovery Scorecard Table
Source: Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc.

3. Bear Stearns Industrial Metals Index
01/01/96 = 100
Source: Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc.

4. Real Personal Income 12-month change, % Shading = recession
Source: Commerce Department

5. Real Corporate Profits
4-quarter change, %
Shading = recession
Source: Commerce Department

6. Profit Fundamentals
Source: Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc.

7. GDP and S&P 500 Growth Following Recession
Source: Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc.

8. GDP Growth and S&P 500 Following Recession
Source: Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc.

9. Price of Gold
$ per troy ounce
Source: Haver Analytics

10. Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar
3/73 = 100
Source: Haver Analytics

11. Nominal Fed Funds Rate
percent
Source: Haver Analytics

12. Real Yield on 10-Year Treasury Note
percent
Source: Haver Analytics

13. 10-Year to 2-Year Treasury Spread
basis points
Source: Federal Reserve

14. 2-Year Treasury to Fed Funds Spread
basis points
Source: Federal Reserve

15. Baa Corporate Bond Spread
Baa minus 10-yr Treasury, basis points
Source: Moody’s; Federal Reserve