1. Rural-urban Migration and Poverty in Kenya: is Agriculture the Answer?
Maria Sassi
Dep. of Business
University of Pavia

2. Importance of the topic
Rural-urban
migration
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Social, economic,
political problems
of major significance
Agrarian
countries

3. Theoretical literature (1/2)
Dual economy
Models
(1950s-1960s)
Todarian
Frameworks
(1970s-1980s)
New Economics
of Labour
Migration
(form 1990s)

4. New Economics of Labour Migration (2/2)
Remittances allocation
in rural areas
Internal migration
and
rural development
Rural development
policies for poor hhs
without migrants
MIGRATION POLICY GOAL
Accommodate migration
flows while preventing
the widening of rural
and urban imbalaces
Agricultural
policies

5. Focus of the analysis - Rural migrant: 70% of urban labour force;
Specific policy interventions;
Poverty: 54% & 80% in rural areas.
Kenya
Agriculture
The “growth sector” (24% GDP,
53% exports; 62% labour force);
-Increase in productivity.
Tech. efficiency ch.
Impact of migration policies
on income, output & employment
in both urban and rural areas &
sectors SIMULTANEOUSLY
CGE approach
2003 SAM

6. 10% rural skilled to urban skilled
Simulations
10% rural skilled to urban skilled
Rural-urban
migration
10% rural semiskilled to urban semiskilled
10% rural unskilled to urban unskilled
10% increase in efficiency of agricultural production function
Technical
efficiency change
50% increase in intermediate input specific efficiency in agricultural production function (agricultural, food industry, other industry and service inputs)

7. Rural - urban migration
No significant impact

8. Households by expenditure decile
10% rural migration:
Impact on income
(% change) -
Households by expenditure decile
(I=low; X=high)

9. Technical efficiency change
10% increase in efficiency of
agricultural production function

10. Impact on income - current prices (%)
10% increase in efficiency of agricultural production function
Impact on income - current prices (%)
Households by expenditure decile - (I=low; X=high)

11. Impact on consumption – constant prices (%)
10% increase in efficiency of agricultural production function
Impact on consumption – constant prices (%)

12. Share of households consumption by product
3.8
-5.3
1.7
1.6
5.3

13. Impact on macroeconomic indicators (%)
10% increase in efficiency of agricultural production function
Impact on macroeconomic indicators (%)

14. Impact on gross product at factor costs (%)
10% increase in efficiency of agricultural production function
Impact on gross product at factor costs (%)

15. 10% increase in efficiency of agricultural production function
Impact on exports (%)

16. 10% increase in efficiency of agricultural production function
Impact on wages (%)

17. Technical efficiency change
50% increase in
intermediate input specific
efficiency in agricultural
production function
Impact on income (% change)
Households by expenditure decile
(I=low; X=high)

18. Agricultural inputs
Food industry inputs
Industry other inputs
Service inputs

19. Impact on macroeconomic indicators - current prices (% change)

20. Impact on gross product at factor costs - current prices (% change)

21. 10% increase in intermediate service input efficiency in agricultural production function
Impact on wages (%)

22. Conclusions (1/3) Role of rural-urban No impact on income migration
and development
Micro
analysis
Macro
analysis
integration

23. Conclusions (2/3) Rich-poor and rural-urban inequalities?
Support to overall
economc development
Key role of
thechnical progres
Increase in
households welfare
Rich-poor and
rural-urban
inequalities?

24. Conclusions (3/3) Reduction in agricultural prices Farmers return
& livelihoods
Liberalization &
Price fluctuations
Withdrawl from
agriculture