1. Weather-based Decision Tools
2014 Integrated Crop Management Conference
Ames, Iowa
Dec. 3, 2014
Chad Hart
Iowa State University

2. A Little Bit about U2U
Slide starts with graphic of university/institution logos, click to show 2013 team photo (putting faces to universities/institutions), click to reveal USDA-NIFA logo (point out funding source), then click to reveal overarching goal of project.
Our goal is to help producers make better long-term plans on what, when and where to plant, and also how to manage crops for maximum yields and minimum environmental damage.

3.
Introduce the AgClimate4U.org website. Highlight “Decision Dashboard” for this and other decision support tool links, “Newsletter” for current updates, and “AgriClimate Connection Blog” for quick news/information stories and connection to the Sustainable Corn project (USDA-NIFA Corn CAP project).

4. Decision Dashboard
I like to point out that the Decision Dashboard has not only our decision support tools, but also links to other decision support tools, the latest reports from national/regional climate information centers, and weather/climate graphics for the Corn Belt.

5. AgClimate View
Plot local temperature and precipitation variation as far back as 1980,
Track county crop yields and trends, and
Consider crop yields in the context of temperature, precipitation, and growing degree day data
Used in tandem with other decision resources, AgClimate View can help you find long-term correlations between climate trends and yields, while helping you put your recent crop experience into historical context.

6. Probable Fieldwork Days
This spreadsheet-based tool uses USDA data on Days Suitable for Fieldwork to determine the probability of completing in-field activities during a user-specified time period. This product is currently available for Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri. It can help you make decisions about:
Climate Risks – Identify the historical likelihood of completing desired fieldwork given current equipment.
Machinery Scaling – Provide a comparison fieldwork probabilities under alternative equipment set-ups.
Acreage – Explore the potential to cover additional acreage with current or additional purchased equipment.

7. Climate Patterns Viewer
This tool provides a historical ( ) look at how the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) have affected local climate conditions across the Corn Belt. You can explore relationships among ENSO, AO, precipitation, and temperature.
The maps can help you make decisions about:
Climate Risks – Identify periods of more extreme weather.
Activity Planning – Consider crop choice and irrigation needs.
Marketing – Explore forward pricing alternatives.

8. Corn Split N
This tool examines the feasibility and profitability of post-planting nitrogen applications for corn production. It combines historical data from crop growth and fieldwork conditions with economic variables to access potential nitrogen applications.
The tool incorporates:
Yield Risks – Potential changes in yield given different nitrogen timing.
Production Costs – Potential changes in costs given timing and demand.
Weather Risks – Potential to complete in-season fieldwork.

9. Pick Your Location
Several ways to get started: Users can click on the map to select their county or type in their zip code, county, or a city.

10. Provide Details on the Crop

11. Provide Details on the Equipment

12. Economic Analysis

13. Historical Analysis

14. Crop Calendar Summary

15. Corn Growing Degree Days
This tool puts current conditions into a 30-year historical perspective and offers trend projections through the end of the calendar year. Growing Degree Day (GDD) projections, combined with analysis of historical analog data, can help you make decisions about:
Climate Risks – Identify the likelihood of reaching maturity before frosts/freezes.
Activity Planning – Consider corn hybrid estimated physiological maturity requirements, along with GDD projections when making seed purchasing and other growing season decisions.
Marketing – Look at historical and projected GDD when considering forward pricing and crop insurance purchases.

16. Pick Your Location
Several ways to get started: Users can click on the map to select their county or type in their zip code, county, or a city.

17. For Example:
Once the user has found the county they want, they will need to click the “Create GDD Graph” button to pull the data and information. Once the user does that…

18. GDD Graph
The “Graph” tab will display the growing degree days graph, along with historical and average information on growing degree days, spring and fall freeze dates, and estimates of silking and black layer dates for corn. The green line labeled “2014 GDD” shows current year growing degree day accumulation up to today. The dashed line shows the projection for growing degree day accumulation for the rest of the year. The light blue line shows the growing degree day accumulation for a comparison year. And the purple line shows the 30 year average growing degree day accumulation. The gray area on the graph displays the historical range in growing degree day accumulation since Users can click on the legend of the graph to add/remove variables from the graph. If users hover the mouse (pointer) over the graph, a pop-up box will appear, displaying a table of the data for that point in the graph. Users can print or download the graph by clicking on the “Chart Options” graphic at the upper right hand corner of the graph. If the user wishes to zoom in on a particular feature of the graph, they can by clicking and holding the mouse button down and dragging the cursor across the feature.

19. Potential for Spring Freeze
The first set of light blue bars show the historical spring last freeze events since The tallest bar indicates the average last freeze date in the spring. The height of each bar (with the exception of the average bar) indicates the number of years that had a freeze on that date. This data allows the user to assess the historical probability of a freeze impacting the crop early in the growing season and could influence planting and crop variety decisions.

20. Silking Range
The red bars and lines indicate the projected window for corn to enter its silking stage. The solid red bar in the middle represents the silking date projection given the current growing degree day accumulation and the current projection for continued GDD accumulation. The dashed red bars around the solid one indicate the potential range in the silking date, based on the current GDD accumulation and the historical variation in GDD accumulation for the rest of the year. The projected silking date is computed as a function of the GDD start date (which is assumed as the planting date) and the number of corn maturity days needed to reach maturity. Both of these variables are user chosen. The silking date estimates will help users determine whether the corn will enter silking during the hottest part of the year. This information could influence planting and crop variety decisions as producers know that heat stress during silking can reduce corn yields.

21. Black Layer Range
The black bars and lines indicate the projected window for corn to enter its black layer stage. The solid black bar in the middle represents the black layer date projection given the current growing degree day accumulation and the current projection for continued GDD accumulation. The dashed black bars around the solid one indicate the potential range in the black layer date, based on the current GDD accumulation and the historical variation in GDD accumulation for the rest of the year. The projected black layer date is computed as a function of the GDD start date (which is assumed as the planting date) and the number of corn maturity days needed to reach maturity. Both of these variables are user chosen. Users will want to compare the black layer projections to the fall freeze information to evaluate the potential for a freeze to catch the corn crop before maturity.

22. Potential for Fall Freeze
The second set of light blue bars show the historical fall first freeze events since The tallest bar indicates the average first freeze date in the fall. The height of each bar (with the exception of the average bar) indicates the number of years that had a freeze on that date. This data allows the user to assess the historical probability of a freeze impacting the crop late in the growing season and could influence planting and crop variety decisions. For example, a user might find that the potential for a fall freeze to hit before the crop reaches black layer is too high for their comfort. Shifting to a shorter season corn variety reduces that potential.

23. Adjust for Planting Date
The user can adjust many features on the growing degree days graph. For example, the user can choose the planting or “GDD start” date.

24. Crop Maturity Date
Change the maturity days for corn. Or the user can select the silking or black layer GDDs.

25. Freeze Temperature
Adjust the freeze temperature.

26. Compare Different Years
Compare against various years.

27. Data Details and Download
Users can also get a detailed description of the data used to create the graphs and can download the data.

28. GDD Accumulations
The “Animations” tab provides time-lapse animations of growing degree day accumulation for several years.

29. Thank you for your time! Any questions?
Well, that’s the tour of the decision support tool. Thanks.