1. The Landscape for Grantmaking in 2043
Rhodri Davies
Head of Policy & Programme Director, Giving Thought

2. Looking back 25 years…
1993
Bank of England base rate: 5.875%

3. Still to come…

4. Why should grantmakers care about disruptive technology?
New ways of achieving mission 1)
NEUTRAL
Change the way organisations operate 2) B A D
Create new problems to address 3)

5. Example Disruptive Technologies
Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Autonomous Vehicles & Drones
Cryptocurrency
3D Printing
CRISPR/Biotech
Blockchain
Virtual & Augmented Reality (VAR)
Robotics
Wearable tech
Internet of Things (IoT)
Human Augmentation
Quantum Computing
Big/Open Data

6. Data: Big, Open & Everywhere
“The world’s most valuable resource is no longer oil, but data” The Economist (2017)
AI requires vast quantities of data
Growing pressure on data ownership in future
Charities and grantmakers will need to embrace Open Data, and get away from “private by default” mindset
Potential benefit: 3rd party innovation

7. Radical Transparency
Blockchain: a distributed public ledger i.e. way of recording transactions & ownership without trusted 3rd party.
Could make it possible to have 100% transparency around finance, impact etc.
GOOD: - More openness could bring greater trust, and thus more giving?
BAD: - Could make spending on core costs even harder
- What about justifiable donor/beneficiary anonymity?
NB: Not necessarily a choice: even if you don’t embrace it, it’ll probably happen to you so you need to prepare and adapt.

8. Disintermediation (i.e. getting rid of middlemen)
Long-term trend in philanthropy: towards more intermediation
BUT: Are we now seeing that come full circle?
E.g.
Blockchain could enable even greater disintermediation
Benefit: Charities/Grantmakers could save money on e.g. bank costs, legal fees
Risk: Could charitable orgs themselves be disintermediated?

9. Decentralisation, Networks & Platforms
Tech enables decentralisation
Blockchain can be used to create entirely decentralised governance structures (DAOs)
Platforms (Uber, Airbnb etc.) have disrupted and disintermediated many industries
Society wants it

10. New models for social purpose
Social change campaign platforms
Purpose-driven commercial models
In the future, charities will face competition for doing good from many angles
Decentralised networks
Non-traditional structures for philanthropy

11. SO: Range of assets for philanthropy could be massively increased.
Digital Assets
Already over 1500 cryptocurrencies, e.g:
Can use crypto tokens to represent value of all kinds: financial, non-financial, physical, intangible (e.g. IP or social value).
CryptoKitties
PLUS: unique digital objects for the first time:
E.g….
SO: Range of assets for philanthropy could be massively increased.
Sounds stupid, but…

12. AI & Algorithms
AI is big news - number of key factors in recent growth:
1)More powerful algorithms
(Deep Learning)
2)Data explosion
3) Greater processing power (GPUs)
4)Investment
Yes No
NB: Narrow/Domain Specific AI, not Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
Opinions vary on when latter might happen, or if it is even possible, but former is here now.

13. AI for Good

14. Chatbots & Conversational AI
Chatbots will power 85% of all customer service interactions by the year 2020
By 2020, the average person will have more conversations with bots than with their spouse. 30% of web browsing will be done by voice. (Gartner)
Already having an impact on charities…

15. AI Philanthropy
Facebook/Amazon model: charity recommendations based on past preferences or peer group behaviour A.
“If you liked Cancer Research UK, you’ll love RNLI!”
Philgorithm: Wholly automated process of matching needs and interventions B.

16. Challenge 1: Algorithmic Bias
When machine learning algorithms are taught using data sets that contain statistical biases for e.g. race, gender, they exhibit and strengthen those biases over time

17. Challenge 2: Filter Bubbles
Technology such as social media allows us to build ‘filter bubbles’ around our experience
Likely to get worse as increasing reliance on AI-based interfaces tailors our experience of the world to fit existing preferences and biases.

18. The slow death of public discourse?
Filter bubble problem symptomatic of wider social and political division
Rise of ‘fake news’ and targeted propaganda/misinformation has eroded notions of truth and fact
Things might be about to get worse…
For charities:
Challenges in terms of using facts and evidence for advocacy
Role to play in combatting erosion of truth (e.g. philanthropic support for journalism).

19. Closing Space or Open Season?
Closing Space for Civil Society:
Global trend of governments restricting freedom of civil society, particularly around advocacy and campaigning.
Politicisation of charity:
In US, concerns over moves to relax rules on political campaigning by 501(c)3s - many worry it will lead to flood of “dark money” and undermine trust in charities
We need to be aware of both these dangers in the UK:
1) Government attitude toward charity campaigning already quite negative (Lobbying Act, Advocacy Clause etc.
2) Already concerns about think tanks etc. being used for quasi-political donations.

20. The Attention Economy
“The only factor becoming scarce in a world of abundance is human attention.” Kevin Kelly
Need to compete in this “attention economy” has led to new problems:
How do charities compete for our attention without adopting techniques that cause long-term harm?

21. The Sharing Economy = Major shift from ownership to access
Rise of platforms + Internet of Things + Blockchain
Turbo-charged Sharing Economy? =
Major shift from ownership to access
Big implications for
- Consumption
- Inequality
- Charitable giving

22. * According to Deutsche Bank
The Real Economy
Many experts believe another financial crisis is inevitable:
Possible causes*:
Rise of Populism
Italy
End of QE ?
Or…?
China
Overpriced assets
Brexit ? ?
Japan
But there are other long-term challenges too…
* According to Deutsche Bank

23. Automation & The Future of Work
Advances in AI and robotics have led to speculation that many jobs may be under threat from automation.
One solution proposed is Universal Basic Income
If feasible, has big implications for charities:
1) Role in managing transition to post-work world
2) Voluntary action as a new sense of purpose
3) Would charitable giving decline in the context of UBI?

24. Inequality already a massive economic problem
Key question for development of tech: does it reduce or increase inequality?

25. An Ageing Population
Our relationship with mortality could change radically over next 25 years
Average life expectancies continue to rise
Life extension technology could enable those who can afford it to live even longer.
Hence:
Impact for charities:
New health & social problems
Delayed wealth transfer?
More volunteers…?

26. Urbanisation & The Rise of Cities
More people now live in urban than rural areas worldwide (54%)
UK has highest proportion of urban population in the OECD (82%)
(McKinsey)
“In this century, it will be the city—not the state—that becomes the nexus of economic and political power.”
Global urban population (World Bank)
Already seeing political power shift in UK through devolution, elected mayors etc.
New opportunities for place-based philanthropy and influencing at a local level.

27. Key Cross-Cutting Themes Recap
Networks & Platforms
Disintermediation
Inequality
Radical Transparency
Algorithms
Automation of work
Data, data, data
Attention Economy
Ageing Population
Filtered experience
Urbanisation
Digital Assets
New models for social good

28. What should I take away from this?
Going to see massive technological, social and political changes in coming years
Impossible to guess exactly what these are, but can identify trends that are likely to play out
Charities and funders need to start engaging with them now, to:
1) Find new opportunities to deliver mission
2) Understand impact on organisation
3) Shape debate on future needs & challenges
“We probably need something in our strategy about this…”

29. Where to find us CAF Giving Thought think tank and Future:Good project
CAF Giving Thought Podcast:
@Rhodri_H_Davies

30. Charities Aid Foundation
Rhodri Davies
Head of Policy & Programme Director, Giving Thought
Charities Aid Foundation