1. Chapter 4
Dr. Marie-Helen Maras

2. Terrorist Attacks in Iraq Between January 1, 2004 – December 31, 2010
Group Type
Attacks
Deaths
Islamic Extremist (Shia)
431
1,002
Islamic Extremist (Sunni)
3,107
15,763
Islamic Extremist (Unknown) 41 68
Secular/Political/Anarchist 11
182
Tribal/Clan/Ethnic 1
Unknown
21,923
33,240

3. Terrorism Risk Index (Maplecroft) Terrorist Attacks Between June 2009 – June 2010
Country
Attacks
Deaths
Somalia
569
1,460
Pakistan
1,661
2,789
Iraq
2,734
4,033
Afghanistan
2,818
3,311
Palestinian Occupied Territories (Gaza Strip & West Bank)
275 30
Colombia
307
263
Thailand
566
410
Philippines
301
349
Yemen
116
124

4. Terrorism Risk Index (Maplecroft) Terrorist Attacks Between June 2009 – June 2010
Country
Group Type
Attacks
Deaths
Injured
United States
Environmental/Anti-Globalization 2
Islamic Extremist (Sunni) 3 13 44
Islamic Extremist (Unknown) 1
Neonazi/Fascists/White Supremacists
Secular/Political/Anarchist
Total 8 15 45
United Kingdom
Christian Extremist 24 11
Unknown
France 19 6
Canada

5. Angus Reid Public Opinion Poll
(November 2010)
3 in 5 Americans (59%) and 4 in 5 Britons (74%) believe terrorist attack is “very likely” or “moderately likely” to happen in their country in the next year.
38% of the Canadians surveyed believed that their country will likely be a victim of a terrorist attack in the future.

6. Country
Group Type
Attacks
Deaths
Injured
United States
Environmental/Anti-Globalization 8 4
Islamic Extremist (Sunni) 3 13 44
Islamic Extremist (Unknown) 2 1 10
Neonazi/Fascists/White Supremacists
Secular/Political/Anarchist 12
Unknown 6
Total 32 16 58
United Kingdom
Christian Extremist 52
703
111 7
189 75 53
790
192
112
1,682
France 11
179 28
129
310 46
Canada 5

7. Country
Very Concerned
Somewhat Concerned
United States 31 39
Great Britain 34 36
France 32 41
Canada 22

8. Risk = Probability X Impact

9. Risk of terrorism: UK Group Type Attacks Deaths Injuries
Christian Extremist 1
Islamic Extremist 5 52
703
Secular/Political/Anarchist
111 7
189
Total
117 58
892

10. Risk of terrorism: Spain
Group Type
Attacks
Deaths
Injuries
Islamic Extremist 1
191
1,841
Secular/Political/Anarchist
251 10
272
Total
252
201
2,113

11. Risk of terrorism: europe
Group Type
Attacks
Deaths
Injuries
Christian Extremist 4 1
Neonazi/Fascists/White Supremacists 2
Islamic Extremist 16
252
2,574
Secular/Political/Anarchist
1,349
295
1,870
Total
1,370
548
4,447

12. Risk Perception

13. (Slovic, 1987; Kasperson, et al., 2000; Huddy, et al., 2005)
COGNITIVE HEURISTICS
Availability Heuristic
Probability neglect
Prospect theory
(Slovic, 1987; Kasperson, et al., 2000; Huddy, et al., 2005)

14. Availability HEURISTIC
Laws
Media
Frequency
(Tversky & Kahneman, 1982; Kuran & Sunstein, 1999; Slovic, Fischhoff, and Lichtenstein, 2000)

15. Probability neglect Fear
Omnipresent enemy with nothing to fear and nothing to lose
Rhetoric
(Powerful enemy -> greater fear -> increased government action)
Media
heightens public fear by repeated coverage rare events; mobilizes latent fears
(Kasperson, et al., 2000; Lerner & Keltner, 2001; Sunstein, 2003; Altheide, 2006; Jenkin, 2006)

16. Prospect theory
(Kahneman & Tversky, 1979; Noll & Krier, 1990; Slovic, Fischhoff & Lichtenstein, 2000; Sunstein, 2002)

17. Prospect theory: COMMON versus uncommon risks
Research has shown that the number of individuals who have died from worldwide terrorism is not much greater than the number of individuals who have drowned in their bathtubs in the United States.
Moreover, since 2001, fewer people have been killed by international terrorism than have drowned in toilets or have died from bee stings.
(Mueller, 2006)

18. Prospect theory: common versus uncommon risks
Terrorism Automobile driving
(uncommon risk) (common risk)
Deaths/Madrid bombings Traffic fatalities/Spain
= to 13 days
Deaths/London bombings Traffic fatalities/UK
= days
(Adams, 2005)

19. Prospect theory: voluntary versus involuntary risks
Despite the Madrid and London bombings, public transport (involuntary risk) is still an extremely safe form of travel.
Studies have shown that the “traffic fatality rate per passenger-kilometer is less than one-tenth that of automobile travel” (Litman, 2005).

20. Hypothetical Scenario (p. 108)

21. ANY QUESTIONS?