1. Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Crop Market Outlook
Crop Advantage
Mason City, Iowa
Jan. 15, 2016
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 Δ Area Planted
(mil. acres)
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.0
-0.4
Yield
(bu./acre)
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.4
-0.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,601
-53
Beg. Stocks
989
821
1,232
1,731
Imports
160 36 32 40 10
Total Supply
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,372
-43
Feed & Residual
4,315
5,040
5,315
5,300
Ethanol
4,641
5,124
5,209
5,200
Food, Seed, & Other
1,397
1,369
1,359
1,370
-10
Exports
730
1,920
1,864
1,700
-50
Total Use
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,570
-60
Ending Stocks
1,802 17
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.60
-0.05
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2015 Δ
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.2
76.8
83.3
82.7
-0.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
40.0
44.0
47.5
48.0
-0.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,042
3,358
3,927
3,930
-51
Beg. Stocks
169
141 92
191
Imports 41 72 33 30
Total Supply
3,252
3,570
4,052
4,151
Crush
1,689
1,734
1,873
1,890
Seed & Residual
105
107
145
131 -2
Exports
1,317
1,638
1,843
1,690
-25
Total Use
3,111
3,478
3,861
3,711
-27
Ending Stocks
440
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
14.40
13.00
10.10
8.80
-0.10
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Soybean Yield Estimate
Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

9. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

10. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

14. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

15. Corn Grind for Ethanol

16. Ethanol Stocks
Source: EIA

17. Current Corn Futures
3.76
3.61
3.51
Source: CME Group, 1/14/2016

18. Current Soybean Futures
8.66
8.47
8.53
Source: CME Group, 1/14/2016

19. 2015/16 Crop Margins

20. 2016/17 Crop Margins

21. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

22. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

23. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: