1. Decision to be made
Board proposed to consolidate Lincoln Trails Council districts from 3 to 2
Reduce number of district executives from 3 to 2
Concern brought by board members that reducing district executive staff may affect membership and fundraising (experienced DE’s proven effective)
Ad-hoc committee formed to study decision and bring recommendations to the board at March 2017 meeting
Historical membership and fundraising data from 2008 – 2016 studied
Membership trends by district and by unit type
Evaluated membership impact of experienced DE vs. new DE
Fundraising trends by district
Evaluated fundraising impact of experienced DE vs. new DE

2. BSA National Membership 2008-2016
Key Observations:
2016 National BSA youth membership 13% lower than average (22% lower than 2008 peak)
National membership recovered slightly in 2016, down only 1% vs. 2015
Area 3 regional data follows national data trend

3. BSA National Membership breakdown
Key Observations:
2016 National cub scout total recovered slightly vs. 2015
2016 National boy scout total showed larger decline than 2015 – suspect delayed reaction of “pipeline” effect from erosion of cub scout totals in earlier years

4. Area 3 Membership Comparison by Council
Key Observations:
All councils in Area 3 affected by national down trend
Several councils have stabilized and seen slight recovery in 2016
Note – Area breakdown data by council was not clean – had to remove Venturing numbers for clean comparison

5. Area 3 Select Councils Membership Comparison
Key Observations:
Central Illinois councils (PL, AL, LTC) all down significantly from 10 year averages
Prairelands stabilized and saw slight recovery in 2015 & 2016
Abraham Lincoln on steady downward trend since 2010

6. District geographic boundaries & personnel

7. Lincoln Trails Council – Membership Current Reality
Key Observations:
2016 LTC youth membership 36% lower than average, 12% lower than 2015
Slight decline of Available Youth in 2015 & 2016, only 2% lower than average

8. Lincoln Trails Council vs. National Membership trends
Key Observations:
Major national decline in 2013 & 2014 vs. LTC declines in 2013, 2014, 2015 (largest)
LTC 2016 down 23% more than National and Regional decreases from average (36% vs. 13%)
LTC 2016 down more from average than any other council in Area 3 (2nd AL, 3rd PL)

9. District membership breakdown
Key Observations:
Sharp decline in Two Rivers membership, starting in 2013
Slow decline in Redhawk since 2013
Available youth by district fairly stable and opportunity balanced

10. Scoutreach membership breakdown
Key Observations:
2016 Scoutreach membership 62% lower than average
400 member loss between 2014 to 2015

11. Model input example

12. Model output example

13. LTC Membership Model Results
Key Observation: Loss of 1 DE results in ~430 scout difference in membership over 4 years
Key Observations:
Blue lines represent midpoint and models 23% recovery in LTC membership (still 13% down from average mimicking national/regional 2016 data)
Red lines represent the minimum of the 95% confidence interval (ie. Minimum predicted membership)
Green lines represent the max of the 95% confidence interval (ie. Maximum predicted membership)

14. Membership model breakdown by district

15. Membership growth strategy & opportunities
Quick win priorities
Two Rivers Cub Scouting – largest opportunity for recovery
Redhawk Cub Scouting – recruit for new units or resuscitate old units
Fix Scoutreach
Analysis in progress
Prioritized zip codes for opportunity vs. current membership
Units & chartering organizations lost by zip code

16. Fundraising – FOS pledges
Key Observations:
Total FOS fundraising does not follow membership (YE 2016 falls in average range)
Loss of DE does not correspond to loss of FOS fundraising (Two River 2016 up from 2015)
New DE results in temporary loss of FOS fundraising – recovers with no statistically significant difference over 3-5 years

17. Fundraising – Popcorn Sales
Key Observations:
Popcorn sales trend follows membership (strong tie to Cub scouts)
4 year declining trend on popcorn sales
2016 down 14% from average