1. “Political Economy of Institutions and Long Run Growth”
When political offer creates its own demand: The case of anti-EU politics in Visegrad countries
B. Najman
Y. Zanko
ASSA 2018 Annual Meeting
ACES session
“Political Economy of Institutions and Long Run Growth”

2. Motivations
For if the future European order does not emerge from a broadening European Union, based on the best European values and willing to defend and transmit them, it could well happen that the organization of this future will fall into the hands of a cast of fools, fanatics, populists and demagogues waiting for their chance and determined to promote the worst European traditions. And there are, unfortunately, more than enough of those.” Vaclav Havel Speech to European Parliament, March 1994

4. Motivations - Context
Nationalist experience and wars in former Yugoslavia (1980- )
Political radicalisation / populism in the EU and especially in Visegrad countries, but also recently in Austria
Wars in Ukraine (since 2014) and in Syria (since 2011)
Disagreement within the EU: refugees
Elections in Poland, Hungary, Czech Rep. in 2018

5. Visegrad vs. the EU Why looking at Visegrad countries?
Former communist experience but within EU since 2004
Anti-EU one of the main slogan political supply
Major changes in the legal framework
On the road to Autocracy?
EU Is the main target of populist parties

6. Election results in Hungary

7. Literature Review Euroscepticism Spectrum
Economic conditions and Euroscepticism
Political institutions and Euroscepticism
Media and Euroscepticism

8. Approach
We assume that, under certain conditions, extreme political supply creates its own demand
Populist parties may create a political environment (counter powers and instability) allowing them to hold most of the powers
In this context, elections are not anymore democratic
Manipulation of feelings

9. Weak or challenged counter powers
Threats and instability during the campaign
Manipulation of feelings undermining facts
Lack of discussions and moderate forums
Radical political supply dominate elections

10. Condition for fair and free elections
Peaceful discussions –no threats
Violence and conflicts can be political tools
Stable check and balance institutions (judges, …)
Same access to media
Referendum (Hungary) can be misused

11. Methodology - Data Difficult to test. Subjective variables.
We use the Eurobarometer dataset,
Almost obs. 28 countries
Econometric analysis (still preliminary) of perceptions on EU future and trust (probit and oprobit)
We control for gender, age, education, settlement, prof. status, country and year…

12. TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS: EUROPEAN UNION

13. EU STATEMENTS: BETTER FUTURE OUTSIDE THE EU

14. Benefits from being member of the EU in 2011, across V4 countries

15. Optimism about EU’s future

16. Immigration

17. Econometric Results V4 are anticipating a possible EU exit
Young, Women, Educated, Large cities are pro-EU
Internet users and people discussing political issues tend to be pro EU
Economic Crisis and HH Financial problems reinforce the anti-EU perceprions (bills)