1. John Kosak – Program Manager, Weather
NBAA Delay Issues
John Kosak – Program Manager, Weather
Washington, DC | August 2016

2. NBAA Delay Issues Delays Are Part Of The System 50,000 Aircraft Daily
Capacity versus Volume
Weather Complicates Things
We understand that delays are part of the system. You can’t hope to operate tens of thousands of aircraft any day of the week without some kind of delay popping up.
Of course, the operators must share some of the responsibility. Airlines pack airports like EWR and LGA to capacity almost every day of the week. It only takes a slight reduction in normal capacity in order to push them into a program that creates delays.
We in the business aviation community are no less culpable, as we like to have everyone show up at TEB and try to depart at the same time on a Thursday afternoon. Even on a great day when NY TRACON operates well above capacity at TEB, we still see +30 minute delays due to shear volume.

3. NBAA Delay Issues Delays – Good vs Convenient MSP
Stop – Convenient for ATC
Short GDP – Good for Delta’s customers
So before I even talk about the influence of weather on the system, it’s worth noting that their can be a discrepancy between what the operators think is a good delay versus what the Command Center thinks is a good delay. This past fall while working on the yearly NAS Vision presentation, an almost perfect example popped up. Over the last year procedures had changed at MSP that brought the airport arrival rate down from what it had been previously. This created an artificial overage in one hour toward the end of the day. It was a small overage, maybe aircraft total and the consensus in the Command Center was just to stop those aircraft and push them into the next hour. Unfortunately, several of those were Delta aircraft that were bringing in passengers for the last international departures shortly after their scheduled arrivals. By using a stop, the FAA created the least amount of delay in the system and impacted the least amount of aircraft. Unfortunately, this meant that dozens, possibly hundreds of passengers would have to spend an unplanned night in Minneapolis and lose a day off their trips as they waited 24-hours until the next evenings departures. Of course that isn’t reflected in the delay minutes or number of aircraft delayed.
It’s even harder in business aviation to quantify a good delay versus a bad one.
Mike Robinson: It’s worth noting that in my talk, I am going to point out how confusing and potentially unrepresentative the DOT “Weather’s Share of NAS delays” can be (i.e, throw rocks at it), how it can differ mightily from the similar metric out of OPSNET, etc. (Note: “70% of all delays come from weather” is derived from OPSNET – I’m gonna cover this in my talk - and not the DOT stats....see – it’s confusing)

4. NBAA Delay Issues Compound Delays ILS-13 in New York LGA & JFK
TEB & EWR
I’m probably not telling anyone anything new, but NY TRACON is some of the most complex airspace in the world. To say that these airports are dependent upon each other would be a slight understatement.
On the wrong day, if Mother Nature drops the ceilings or the visibility enough, we can get into a situation where either JFK or LGA is on their ILS-13. Due to their proximity, if either one goes to the ILS-13 them both have to be on the ILS-13 and the dominoes begin to fall. Now we have to slow down most of the traffic coming into the NY TRACON area because this is the worst configuration possible. JFK, LGA & EWR end up in programs at a half or two-thirds of their capacity while TEB gets cut to a third of its capacity.
But it’s worse than that. TEB traffic can only land for about 15 minutes at a time because the EWR departures have to be stopped to make room. So first the TEB traffic takes huge delays in an 8 rate program and then they have to hold once they get near NY TRACON for up to 45 minutes while they wait for their opening to land.
For a while there as a rumored fix, an RNAV-13 approach for LGA that could keep them off the dreaded ILS-13 and keep NY TRACON in slightly better shape. Unfortunately, one of the major carriers that flies into LGA has numerous aircraft that are not equipped to fly that type of approach., rendering it useless. So if we could have stayed off the ILS-13 but we had to go to it because the major carrier at an airport was unable to fly the RNAV-13 approach, is that a weather delay or an equipage delay?
How do we track all the different things that can happen to TEB traffic as a result of this mess by Mother Nature? There are at least two separate opportunities to divert in the situation. First, before we even leave the departure airport. Second, if we run out of fuel while holding.

5. NBAA Delay Issues Reality Radio Hotlines Communication
On really bad days we’ll see hotlines set up for metro areas that allow the towers, TRACONs, centers and occasionally the operators to all get on the same line, ostensibly so that we all know what’s going on.
If it were that easy, life would be grand. Unfortunately, many of the people who are participating on these hotlines have several responsibilities on these busy days and can’t listen every second. Sometimes they have to walk away from their phone in order to exchange information on their end of the line. While they are gone they can miss things. It’s disappointing to hear one person inquiring about a certain gate, fix or route, only to be told that it’s been open for several minutes or longer.
If we’re trying to get unnecessary delay out of the system, perhaps we need to have some sort of dashboard that people can look at in their facilities that shows what is open and what is closed at a glance. A dashboard that can be updated with the push of a button or the flip of a switch. Something that allows the human in the loop to be able to do more without having to be tied to their phone.

6. NBAA Delay Issues Single Authoritative Source CCFP & CAWS
LAMP, HRRR, SREF, etc.
Since first becoming involved with FPAW years ago I heard people discuss and talk about the single authoritative source. I had a very difficult time wrapping my head around it at the beginning and then the longer I thought about it the more it made sense. Of course, this can mean different things to different people. At first to me I thought it would be a great idea that we had all the weather in a single place. A single source. Lately I’ve come to realize that it might have to go even further than that.
FAA Order indicates that the “CCFP is the primary weather product used by the planning team in developing the operations plan.” However, planners in the Command Center will access numerous other weather forecasts like LAMP, SREF the HRRR and others to make their decisions. Why do we have planners who are spending that much time with weather forecasts that they think are better than CCFP? Especially since we now have NWS AWC meteorologists on the floor at the Command Center to give them expert meteorological advice.
Have we reached a point at which we need to require that the planners use a single authoritative source on which to base their traffic management decisions? Wouldn’t this give us a better baseline to work with when blaming the weather forecast because we would know when the forecast was issued and why a specific decision was made. Right now everyone in the NAS is basing their decisions on their weather. Is It time to enforce the rule as written with the addition of the CAWS to add the detail and accuracy missing from the CCFP? Is there another solution?

7. NBAA Delay Issues Staffing Issues EWR Satellite Desk
Super High Sectors
Another problem that can lead to delay is staffing. Not having the EWR satellite desk staffed during a weather event in NY TRACON can cause delays to climb quickly for the EWR satellite airports, which includes TEB.
A while back we had a new position for NY TRACON called the tactical route coordinator position. When staffed it was able to significantly reduce departure delays from the NY metros. This position would coordinate non-standard routes to get traffic out of the NY metro area by any means necessary. Unfortunately, the lack of staffing seemed to be its downfall and it is no longer available.
Also, the super high sector issue is one that has been used as an excuse to not lower the ceilings on airspace flow programs on numerous occasions. If we could put the ceiling for one of the Washington Center AFPs at around FL 410 or FL 430, this would allow aircraft going to Boston or that area to fly over the top and remain out of the congested airspace in Washington or New York centers below. This is even better than a route out option as it allows our operator to fly a more direct route, reducing their delay and maintaining their flexibility.

8. NBAA Delay Issues Ground vs. Reroute Delay Sitting and waiting
Taking the Long Way Home
Speaking of flexibility, a lot of our operators are willing and able to take non standard routing. They want to get moving now, even if it means going well out of their way. A great example is the AZEZU route off the east coast. This can add significant mileage to any trip north or south along the coast. However, when it is used as the route out option for the Washington center AFP, it can shave precious time off our operators delays by taking them out of the program and relieving them from their EDCT. This also restores some of the flexibility of our on-demand operation so important to business aviation.
In other instances during major weather events the centers and TRACONs will post SWAP plans that include the use of CDRs, but forget that many of the business aircraft are actually CDR capable. Unlike the airlines in many cases, we’re willing and able to put on the extra fuel and take the longer routing to get going now.

9. NBAA Delay Issues Delay Issues Can We Fix It?
After nine years on the Command Center floor and several of those spent on the FAA CDM Weather Evaluation Team , which eventually led me here, I’ve seen and heard many things. I’m looking forward to learning from the next session before returning for the third session to discuss how we can solve some of the issues we’re talking about in the first two sessions.