1. Missing collaborator

2. Conceptual Overview SHIRAZ Landscape Land Use Processes
Land use & landscape processes affect habitat
Freshwater
Habitat
Freshwater habitat affects productivity & capacity
SHIRAZ
Biological
Response

3. The SHIRAZ model
Developed for Muckelshoot Tribe in WA to evaluate ESA recovery planning for salmon
Uses flexible life history, with reach by reach specification of habitat characteristics
Basic structure can be simplified and adapted to meet various needs (i.e. it’s a framework)
Built with Visual Basic & integrates with Excel

4. Alternative life histories
Spawners
Adults
Spawners
Eggs
Fry
First winter residents
Smolts
Ocean residents
Adults

5. Relate life history to habitat
Stage 1
Habitat
Stage 2
Habitat
Stage 3

6. Multistage Beverton-Holt Model
(Mousalli & Hilborn 1986)
Ns ≡ individuals alive at stage s
p ≡ max. survival rate from s  s+1 ≡ “productivity”
c ≡ max. N producible at s+1 ≡ “capacity”

7. Key Attributes In general
Freshwater survival driven by relationships between habitat, p, & c
c determined by quantity of habitat
p determined by quality of habitat
Also assume
Freshwater survival is density-dependent
Marine survival is density-independent

8. Habitat Variables Inherent “hard-wired” Generic spawning area
rearing area
% fines
% impervious
Generic
Increase or decrease c & p around a “reference” level
Multiplier specified by a general quadratic relationship
Based on difference between present state and reference
Multiplier = exp[f1(state – ref) + f2(state – ref)2]

9. Example of Habitat Relationship

10. Changing habitat variables
1) Underlying trend (i.e. annual increase or decrease)
Hmax
trend>0
trend<0
2) Intervention (i.e. bulk addition or removal)
Hmax
(+)
(-)
Time

11. Other model features Hatchery influence Harvest strategies
Ocean survival

12. Integration with PRISM
Land Use
Landscape
Processes
PRISM
Freshwater
Habitat
SHIRAZ
Biological
Response

13. Linking landscape to life history
Stage 1
Climate
FW Habitat
Stage 2
Ocean Habitat
Hydrology
Stage 3
Land use
Landscape Processes

14. Current status Programming interactive improvements
Researching habitat-fish relationships
Researching hydrology-habitat relationships

15. Moving Forward Choose watershed (Snohomish or Puyallip/White?)
Add variable hydrology inputs
Allow for various “what if” scenarios

16. Example scenario ? Fry survival Ambient Decrease Increase % fines
Stream flow
% fines
Precipitation
Stream flow

17. Ocean regime shifts
Evaluation of alternative harvest strategies should be robust to uncertainty about future ocean changes
May want to include known ocean changes based on historical data

18. SHIRAZ Summary It’s a modeling framework Uses flexible life history
Spatially explicit habitat characteristics
Basic structure can be simplified and adapted