1. Report to the UPDEA 39th General AssemblyBy
How to prevent lack of Generation Capacity in SAPP
SAPP Executive Committee Representative
Tanger, Morocco
30 November 2007

2. Demand and Supply in SAPP Rehabilitation and Short Term Projects
CONTENTS
General Information
Demand and Supply in SAPP
Rehabilitation and Short Term Projects
Transmission Projects

3. GENERAL INFORMATION Key Statistics 12 Countries 230 Million
DR Congo
Tanzania
Zambia
Angola
Malawi
Zimbabwe
Mozambique
Botswana
Namibia
South Africa
Lesotho
Swaziland
12 Countries
230 Million
Annual consumption 250 TWh
Electricity growth rate 3% p.a.
Generation mix
Coal 74.3%
Hydro 20.1%
Nuclear 4%
Gas/diesel 1.6%

4. Power Supply and Demand
No.
Country
Utility
Installed
Capacity
[MW]
Available
2006 Peak
Demand [MW] 1
Angola
ENE
742
590
432 2
Botswana
BPC
132
120
473 3
DRC
SNEL
2,442
1,170
993 4
Lesotho
LEC 72 70
101 5
Malawi
ESCOM
305
261
251 6
Mozambique
EDM
307
320
HCB
2,250
2,075 7
Namibia
NamPower
393
390
408 8
South Africa
Eskom
42,011
36,208
34,807 9
Swaziland
SEB 51 50
188 10
Tanzania
TANESCO
897
680
567 11
Zambia
ZESCO
1,752
1,302 12
Zimbabwe
ZESA
1,990
1,825
1,904
TOTAL
53,124
44,741
41,744
Non-coincidental 2006 peak demand for interconnected grid: 40,554 MW
Available hydro capacity varies depending on season

5. The SAPP Planning Data is indicating that SAPP runs out of generation surplus capacity after the year 2007.

6. Peak Demand in 2006 & 2007
Load shedding in ZESA, ZESCO and NamPower in 2006 at peak periods
Interruptible Load Contracts, Demand Market Participation and DSM utilised in ESKOM. (Experience in 2006)
This demonstrated that supply was not adequate
The 2007 indicates that actual generation reserve capacity were lower than normally planned.
Demand Side Management Initiatives have been initiated and supported

7. Commissioned Generation Projects [2004-2006]
Country
Plant
Capacity [MW]
Total Capacity
(MW)
Commissioning
Date
Comment
Angola
Capanda 1
2 x 130
260
2004
New
Tanzania
Ubongo
2 x 40 80
2005
Zambia
Kariba North
1 x 30 30
Uprating
South Africa
Camden
2 x190
380
De-mothballed
190
2006
Arnot
6 x 20
120
Upgrade
Swaziland
Maguga 20
Kafue Gorge
2x15
Total
1140

8. New Generation Projects in 2007
ESKOM commissioned 2 x 190 MW at Camden in 1st quarter of 2007.
ESKOM commissioned 1050 MW – Commercial Operation was in May 2007 (OCGT).
TANESCO commissioned 100 MW GT at end of Sept 2007 at Ubungo.
SEB to commission 20 MW at Maguga before Dec 2007.

9. Priority Projects
The SAPP priority projects have been agreed as follows:
Rehabilitation & associated transmission projects.
Short-term generation projects
Expected to be commissioned before 2010
Completed feasibility studies
Approved Environmental Impact Assessment
Transmission projects
Medium to Long-term generation projects
Expected to be commissioned after 2010
Most have no feasibility studies and EIA

10. Classification of Generation Projects

11. Planned Rehabilitation & Short Term Generation Projects 2007 to 2010
Generation Capacity
Country MW
Angola
343
Botswana
600
DRC
1136
Lesotho 28
Malawi
104
Mozambique
912
Namibia
800
RSA
6639
Swaziland 20
Tanzania
260
Zambia
1350
Zimbabwe
1315
TOTAL
13507
Annual Average Planned New Generation Capacity = 3,327 MW
Most Projects are on track to be commissioned before 2010

12. Country Capacity Contribution
The above projects have secured funding and are currently in progress.
They are expected to be commissioned before 2010.

13. REHABILITATION & SHORT TERM PROJECTS
Country
Capacity, MW
Percentage
Botswana
600
4.6%
DRC
1,136
13.1%
Lesotho 28
0.3%
Malawi
104
1.2%
Mozambique
912
10.5%
Namibia
800
9.2%
South Africa
2,541
29.3%
Tanzania
260
3.0%
Zambia
1,170
13.5%
Zimbabwe
935
15.2%
TOTAL
8,486
100
The above projects are ready but have not reached financial closure.
If funding was available, the should be commissioned by 2010.

14. SOUTHERN AFRICAN GRID A total of USD 4.7 billion is required to
Dem Rep of Congo
Congo
Gabon
Luanda
Windhoek
Lusaka
Harare
Lilongwe
Nairobi
Dar es Salaam
Gaborone
Pretoria
Johannesburg
Cape Town
Maputo
Mbabane
Kinshasa
Brazzaville
Angola
Tanzania
Kenya
Mozambique
South Africa
Swaziland
Lesotho
Namibia
Zambia
Botswana
Zimbabwe
Malawi
Rwanda
Burundi H P T N
Hydro station
Pumped storage scheme
Thermal Station
A total of USD 4.7 billion
is required to
develop the identified
transmission projects

15. SAPP Members (All) Diminishing Generation Surplus Capacity
75000
70000
65000
60000 MW
55000
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Year
Capacity Planned
Capacity Required
Peak Demand
USD 7.9 billion needed to develop 6,700 MW by 2010-Financial needs

16. UPDATE ON SAPP INTERCONNECTORS Mozambique - Malawi
World Bank approved the finances.
Detailed designs being done.
Commissioning to be in 2009.
CEC - SNEL second 220 kV Interconnector
Total Transfer capacity for the 2x220 kV lines would be 500 MW.
Zambian side finalized and to be funded by CEC.
SNEL to be supported by the World Bank.

17. UPDATE ON SAPP INTERCONNECTIONS
Zambia-Tanzania-Kenya 330 kV line
Commissioning date shifted from 2008 to 2011.
Heads of Agreement to be signed by the 3 Governments at the end of Oct 2007.
Draft Power Purchase Agreement to be discussed by the 3 Gvts in Livingstone.
Initial power proposed to come from Zambia then other SAPP countries.

18. SAPP Capacity Expansion Plans
In order to avoid power shortages as early as 2007/8, the SAPP would have to spend US$4.3 billion to complete projects in progress and to rehabilitate some plants.

19. Southern African Power Pool
THANK YOU