1. Doctor of Business Administration complexity systems and subsystems Revised 2018 March
PROFESSOR ROBIN MATTHEWS
KINGSTON UNIVERSITY BUSINESS SCHOOL LONDON
RANEPA MOSCOW
MOSI YOSHKAR-OLA
ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
PRESIDENT OF THE LEAGUE OF CORPORATE STRATEGY AND ACCOUNTING
http/
11/19/2018
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2. (current system state) T
Past
Future
upside
System state
possible futures
possible causes
probable futures
Probable causes
possible causes
possible futures
Now
(current system state) T
downside
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4. Complex systems and subsystems
Defined by the length of their precise description The length string required to describe them

5. Complex adaptive systems can self organise spontaneously
Local interactions. Interdepemdemce
Interaction within and between levels of hierarchy
Non-linearity and unpredictability; the scale of effects can’t be predicted for example.
Positive and negative feedbacks. Unpredictable time lagsLarge numbers of elements
Open and closed systems
Co-evolution within systems and subsystems
Unpredictable patterns emerge which become attractors influence future directions.
Attractors
Dis-equilibrium.
No single entity has complete knowledge of the system.
11. Path dependence
12. Evolution through learning and imagination.
13. Complexity catastrophe

6. The global economy as a complex adaptive system  
The direction of the economy emerges from the interaction of many dispersed and interdependent units (firms, institutions, people, demographics, urbanization, cultures, religions, ethnicities personalities and so on) in parallel.
The action of any one unit depends on the state and action of others units.
The global economy has many levels of interaction; coalitions at many levels ranging from teams to business units and mergers.
Tangled interactions (associations, communications) occur within and between levels.
Coalitions are building blocks. They are recombined and revised continually as the system accumulates experience and adapts.
There are many niches created by new technologies that can be exploited by adaptation. Thus large and small local and global firms coexist and coevolve on the global economy; glocalisation.
There is no universal super-competitor, such as the USA or China or massive corporation or institution that can fill all niches; often they are helpless, global terrorism for example.
There are so many niches serving many purposes and needs the system operates far from equilibrium or optimum.
Despite the talk about progress and world growth recent developments have seen a resurgence of real politique; struggle for resources, struggle for dominance

7. Organizational Grammar
Structures,
Laws
Regulations
Habits
Procedures,
Attitudes,
Perceptions,
Assumptions,
Norms,
Cultures,
Mindsets,
Traditions,
Rituals
Artefacts

8. Hard problems
Problems well defined
Assumption of definite goals & solutions
Can pre-define success criteria
Technically/operationally oriented
Soft problems
Difficult to define - they are problem situations
High social, political & human activity component
Wicked

9. META MODEL PAYOFFS INNER DYNAMICS DYNAMICS GRAMMAR OUTER DYNAMICSOUTER
Mandala
The system state
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10. organization grammar
conceptual
Action
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11. Systems Thinking
Necessary and sufficient conditions guide development of the conceptual model in particular human systems require
A Measure Of Performance
A Decision Making Process
Components Which Interact
Actions That Are Transmitted Through The System And Interacts With Wider Systems It To Be Bounded From The Wider System
Resources At The Disposal For Process
Adaptability
Sub Systems/Component Systems Satisfy The Same Criteria

12. Stage 1: Problem situation unstructured
Checkland’s Soft Systems Methodology
Stage 1: Problem situation unstructured
Stage 2: Problem situation expressed (rich pictures)
Stage 3: Naming of relevant systems (root definitions; CATWOE)
Stage 4: Conceptual models
Stage 5: Comparing conceptual models with reality
Stage 6: Debating feasible & desirable changes
Stage 7: Implementing changes

13. Soft Systems Methodology (SSM)
Some problems are fuzzy; lack clear definitions, are unstructured, are socially constructed, have multiple solutions or no solutions, or no solutions that will satisfy everyone, require compromises, negotiation.
Soft Systems Methodology is an attempt to apply science to human activity systems
It is an iterative 7 stage approach to understanding a problem situation and deciding a potential solution if one exists
SSM gives structure to fuzzy problem situations

14. Checkland’s Soft Systems Methodology
Premise
reality is socially constructed, therefore
requirements are not objective
systems thinking is not reductionist
Rationale
Problem/issues are fuzzy, unstructured often without solutions
defining the objective is part of the problem
Example
Integrated computerisation in the NHS largely failed. Why?

15. 2. Problem situation
Is not the problem itself

16. 1. Problem situation is unstructured
Identify a problem/issue and a review/improvement and preparing for decision(s) about change.
Find out about the problem situation; problems/issues are perceptual tand perhaps there are many potential problems
Need for research into the problem area. Who are the key players? How does the process currently work?

17. 2. Problem situation not the problem itself
Collect and sort information about the problem
situation
Organisational structure, processes
transformations, path dependence.
human factors gripes, perceptions, moods
Specify echniques to be used employed assist (e.g. work
observation, interviews, workshops)
Express the problem/issue/situation with a rich picture - visual representation/communication
The perhaps the meta model of the problem not the problem itself

18. Rich pictures Represent structures, processes & organisational issues
relevant to the problem/issue
Provide a way of thinking creatively; using emotion instinct and intuition and the intellect.
representation of how to look/think link key issues
appreciate of the problem
represent and communicate
artistic
individual
many right ways
2. Problem situation not the problem itself

19. 3. Naming of relevant systems
Look at problem/issue from many perspectives
Decide from what perspective to view the problem/issue
definition for different viewpoints
Choose an issue or task from the rich picture
Define a system to address the issue or to carry out
the task
A root definition should be written as a sentence and expressed as a transformation process defines the input that transforms it into a new entity/output)
CATWOE analysis of each root definition

20. CATWOE
C: customer; (who will be affected by the transformation/new system?)
A: actor (who would do these activities & what
special skills are needed?)
T: transformation process; what input is transformed in to what output?
W: weltanschauung; the world view that makes the system/transformation meaningful?
O: Who is the owner? Who is responsible?
E: What are the outer dynamics/environmental constraints

21. process Input S(t) Output S(t+1) 3. Naming relevant systems
Pedestrians high risk
Pedestrians low risk
Customer:                Pedestrians Actor(s):                   Parking Enforcement Officers Transformation:      Penalize parking that puts pedestrians at risk Weltanschauung:     Pedestrian safety should have priority over driver convenience and drivers will not consider pedestrian safety unless they fear punishment. Owner:                      Local Government Administration Environment:           Unlimited road-use is considered a right by most drivers and drivers have powerful political lobby groups. Any system to administer road-use must be self-financing. Most local Government administrations regard road safety as low priority.

22. 4. Conceptual models (SSM)
Construction of a conceptual model for each root
definition of a system (i.e. what the system must do
for each one)
A conceptual model in SSM is a human activity model that
Strictly Conforms To The Root Definition Using The
Minimum Set Of Activities
Expresses The Core Purpose; Teleoplogical
Can Be Drawn As A Directed Graph With Activities As Nodes And Edges Linking Them.
Requires Systems Thinking!

23. 5. Comparing models with reality
Compare the conceptual models of stage 4 with the
REAL world – social construction of reality; nothing is perceived except through an instrument and the instrument determines the problem.
Comparisions, differences, similarities
Use conceptual models as a basis for formulating hypotheses
Compare history with model prediction
General overall comparison
Assumptions/norms/construction of the problem/issue

24. 6. Debating changes Discuss whether there are ways of improving the
situation, taking a goal-driven approach
Identify feasible & desirable changes
Types of change to consider: Organizational Grammar
Structures,
Procedures,
Attitudes,
Perceptions,
Assumptions,
Norms,
Cultures,
Mindsets,
Traditions,
Rituals
Artefacts
Recommendations for taking action to improve
the problem situation

25. 7. Implementing changes
Determine how to implement the changes identified
during stage 6
Implement changes & put them into action