1. Mechanisms to Promote User Satisfaction to Achieve Recognition of the Value of Met Services
SUE WALKER
Prof of Agrometeorology
University of the Free State
Bloemfontein, South Africa

2. User Satisfaction
Value of Services
Recognition of Services
Mechanisms
Conclusion

3. User Satisfaction Depends on Monetary value to user For risk analysis
In planning
Use in routine operations
Response to specific requests
User confidence in various products

4. Maize Vision No30
Information included up until 26 July 2002
Special Report: Prospects for the 2002/2003-season and beyond
Report compiled and issued by Enviro Vision CC (Johan van den Berg) in cooperation with the Institute for Soil, Climate and Water, Agricultural Research Council
Enquiries: Johan van den Berg
Tel/Fax:
Cell:
Summary
El Niño often contributes toward drought. The main contributing factor usually is a lack of rain in midsummer with extremely high temperatures associated. Current El Niño development is weak to moderate but can strengthen towards midsummer. There are currently however still some parallels with the El Niño associated droughts of 1972/73, 1982/83 and 1991/92.
The use of natural cycles in nature to forecast droughts, are very unreliable but it seems that the sun spot cycle may be responsible (coincides?) with drought in the period after reaching a peak activity. The last peak was reached in 2000/2001 and we are reaching a very vulnerable stage within the next 1-4 years. Severe droughts in the central interior showed a year interval since 1930.
The first maize crop estimate for the 2002/2003-season showed a most probable crop of about 9 million tons, taking a 10% increase in area with the lower crop limit of about 6.6 to 7.2 million tons and an upper limit of about 10.2 million tons.
USA production conditions are very unfavourable and a point of permanent damage is already reached in most cases. It can have a negative effect on world stock levels of maize which already is evident in the sharp rise in the CBOT price of maize.
Although conditions are currently relative favourable is it essential for producers to try and maintain their
Integration of financial factors and maize price for risk analysis and planning
Figure 8b Daily Rand/US$ exchange rate as well as CBOT price of maize

5. Value of Services According to Type of products Availability to user
Confidence user has in product
If products meets user needs?

6. The advanced information system for crop-estimation in a nutshell
Technology that will be used…
ARC-Institute for Soil, Climate and Water
ARC-Grain Crops Institute
iFarm
GeoSpace International
AGRiMAGE
Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
Locate cultivated areas
Map results
Satellite imagery
Field sizes
Cultivated or veld
Global Positioning System (GPS)
Help interviewers find points
Internet based database
Rapid access to questionnaire results

7. Recognition of Services 1
Timely
Production/availability of forecasts
Development of new products
Format
Simple & easy to understand
User friendly & readily available
Custom made

8. Seasonal Outlook for Southern Africa
December 2002
Issued by the LOGIC, SA Weather Service,
This product is compiled with the aim to provide the best possible information on future rainfall and temperature conditions on a seasonal time scale to reduce risk in economic and social decisions. The output from models developed at the SA Weather Service and the University of the Witwatersrand, as well as the International Research Institute for climate prediction (IRI) and ECMWF are used to derive these forecasts.
SYNOPSIS:
A moderate El Niño event is observed and is expected to persist throughout the remainder of the summer rainfall season. El Niño events decrease the likelihood of a favourable summer rainfall season over most of southern Africa.
The effects of both the current El Niño event and of the oceans surrounding southern Africa are presented in the following forecast maps. These forecasts are based on output from various numerical and statistical forecast models, which take these oceanic effects on southern African seasonal climate into account.
RAINFALL OUTLOOK
Total: December + January + February 2002/3
Normal rainfall conditions (50% probability) are
expected in the far southwest while below nor-mal over the remainder (45% probability).
Total: February + March + April 2003
Below-normal rainfall conditions (45% pro-bability) are expected over the entire fore-cast region.
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Mean temperature for December 2002 to April 2003
Enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures are expected over the entire forecast region.

9. Recognition of Services 2
Accuracy of routine forecasts
Admit & explain false alarms
Location specific
Simple yet sufficient detail
According to user requirements
ie custom made
eg fire index / disease index

11. Mechanisms 1 Develop Track Record / Credibility Success stories
Disaster stories
Strategy to develop New Products
Tailor-made forecast for specific user
Respond to user needs / demands
Market requirements
Formats of forecasts
Response time to requests

12. Mechanisms 2 Forecast services not limited to NMS Data collection - ok
Forecasts in partnership with industry
Use of media
a/c to public demand
Various formats (print/radio/TV)
Specific requirements
eg local language

13. Conclusion Do Needs Survey to ID specific products
Develop Partnerships with Industry
Do self evaluation / assessment

14. Lets DREAM….…… Then run with the VISION !
Achieve excellence by continuous change and improvement
Lets DREAM….……
Then run with the
VISION !