1. Gries Financial Market Update
Our current thinking around the economy, global markets and investment strategy.
Hosted by Ken Brodkowitz, Gries Financial Chief Investment Officer and the Gries Financial Investment Team

2. Despite Solid Data, Recession Risks Are Rising
Source: Cornerstone Macro Research

3. U.S. Equities Are Slightly Expensive Relative To History, But Still More Attractive Than Bonds

5. The Economic Expansion Is Continuing At A Steady Pace

6. Unemployment Continues To Fall Which Should Drive Up Wages

7. Inflation Should Gradually Rise

8. The Federal Reserve Is Expected To Steadily Raise Rates

9. Strong Earnings Growth In 2018, But Future Growth May Be Muted

10. Factors: Performance & Valuation

11. The Global Economy Is Experiencing Synchronized Growth

12. International Equites May Offer Better Long-Term Opportunities

13. Rising Rates Makes Fixed Income Investing More Difficult

14. The Importance Of Staying Invested and Limiting Loses

15. The Proper Use Of Alternatives In Well Diversified Portfolios Should Help Mitigate Volatility

16. The Glass Is Half Full Today But There Are Headwinds To Monitor
Tailwinds
Corporate tax reform leading to strong corporate profits
Rising government spending. For example, public construction spending on infrastructure is up 10% y/y
Personal tax cuts are helping to boost consumer spending
Easy lending standards for residential mortgages and commercial loans. Housing starts are picking up and capex for smaller for smaller companies is benefitting from loan approvals
Headwinds
Federal Reserve tightening should eventually slow the economy
Trade war tensions have been heating up. In general, higher tariffs are bad policy
The recent rise in the U.S. Dollar remains a one of the largest financial markets risks via its negative impact on emerging markets.
Corporate debt spreads have increased some, but they still remain historically low. Rising spreads usually signal increasing stress within the financial system