1. Forecasting and Planning Cash Balances in the Treasury Single Account
Natalia Savkina -
Head of Federal Budget Execution Cash Planning Office Federal Budget Execution Division
Treasury of Russia
MOSCOW
APRIL 2017

2. Legal Framework for the Current Procedure of Federal Budget Execution Cash Planning
Article Budget Code of the Russian Federation "Cash Plan"
Article BC RF "Spending Authority of the Federal Treasury"
RF Government's Decision dated No.703 "On the Federal Treasury"
Russian MoF's Order dated No.117н "On the Procedure of Cash Planning and Management for the Purposes of Federal Budget Execution in the Current Financial Year"
Russian MoF's Order dated No.204н "On the Procedure of Approval and Communication of Liability Payment Ceilings to the Key Spending Units, Budget Holders and Budget Users"
Federal Treasury's Order dated No.526 "On Approval of the Procedure to Implement the Russian MoF's Order dated No.117н in the Federal Treasury"
Federal Treasury's Order dated No.525 "On Approval of the Procedure to Implement the Russian MoF's Order dated No.204н in the Federal Treasury"

3. Article 217.1 Budget Code of the Russian Federation "Cash Plan"
1. Cash plan implies forecasting cash receipts and cash disbursements in the budget for the current financial year.
Cash plan stipulates the upper limit of cash used for operations to manage balances in the budget single account.
2. The financial body (public non-budgetary fund administrator) establishes the procedure of cash planning and management, as well as the contents and deadlines for presentation of information necessary for cash planning and management by the key spending units (SUs), key federal budget revenue administrators (FBRAs), and key administrators of budget deficit financing sources (ABDFSs).
Forecasting of cash disbursements from the budget for payment of government (municipal) contracts and other agreements is performed taking into account the terms and amounts of payables according to signed government (municipal) contracts and other agreements defined when planning procurement of goods, works, and services for public (municipal) purposes.
Cash planning and management is done by the financial body (public non-budgetary fund administrator) or an authorized executive body (local administration).

4. Objectives of Cash Planning and Management
1.To ensure timely and full execution of budget commitments
3.To provide information (framework) for cash management in TSA
2.To make various management decisions
Monitoring execution of the basic parameters of the Federal Law "On the Federal Budget"
Introducing amendments to the Federal Law "On the Federal Budget"
TSA balance monitoring
Assessment of possible deviations of actual indicators from targets
etc.
Assessment of temporarily available cash and possible cash gaps
etc.
Setting expenditure financing ceilings (EFCs)
etc.

5. . . . Stage I Stage II Stage III
Procedure of Cash Planning and Forecasting in relation to Federal Budget Execution
Automated System of the Federal Treasury (FTAS)
Unified Information Analytical System (UIAS) of Russian MoF
Stage I
FT Territ. Off. 1
General
Ledg e r
FT Inter-regional Opera-tions Division
Producing information on federal budget execution
Placing information on federal budget execution
(97 forms)
Producing and placing indicators stipulated in the Law on FB
(97 forms)
FT Territ. Off. 2
. . .
FT Territ. Off. 85
Forecasting within Expenditure Financing Ceilings
Stage II
Expenditure Forecasts (288 forms)
Key SUs
Upload of presented forecasts in the applied software of the FT Central Office for processing and analysis (considering forecasts of public non-budgetary funds and other resources
97 participants
in forecasting
Revenue Forecasts (246 forms)
Key FBRAs
Forecasts of FB deficit financing sources (9 forms)
Key FSAs
Stage III
Cash planning and producing TSA balance information
Cash plan and TSA balance information submission

6. Time-line of Federal Budget EXECUTION Cash Planning and Management
Cash Plan Update (monthly Feb through Dec)
Cash Plan Development
8 business day
t+20
Cash planning and TSA balance information
7 business day
Cash planning
t+16
6 business day
Forecast verification and analysis
Update of cash disbursement forecasts for expenditures (in case there are EFCs)
5 business day
t+8
Presentation of forecasts by forecasting process participants
Information on TSA balance
t+7
4 business day
Forecast verification and analysis
t+5
3 business day
Producing FB execution information by FT Inter-regional Operations Division
Presentation of forecasts by forecasting process participants
2 business day
Producing consolidated General Ledger by FT Inter-regional Operations Division (FT IOD)
t+1
Presentation of indicators stipulated in the Law on FB by Russian MoF
1 business day
Producing General Ledgers by FT Territorial Offices (FT TOs) t
Adoption of the Law on FB by the State Duma
Verification and analysis of forecasts presented by public non-budgetary funds

7. Cash planning for federal budget revenues
FORECAST OF FEDERAL BUDGET REVENUES CASH RECEIPTS FOR THE CURRENT FINANCIAL YEAR
Federal Tax Authority, Federal Customs Authority, РИ, Federal Treasury
Key administrators
Name of Indicator
Revenue Forecast by Fed. Law on FB
Proposals to change FB revenue forecast
Annual amount, total
January
....
Dec
State fee
Revenues from international economic activity
Revenues from using government and municipal property
Payments for using natural resources
Revenues from provision of paid services (works) and compensation of government expenditure
Revenues from sale of tangible and intangible assets
Administrative payments and fees
Penalties, sanctions, compensation for damages
Other non-tax revenues
Non-repayable receipts
Other administrators
Federal Budget Cash Execution Progress Evaluation
Periodicity by key FBRAs:
monthly
Who presents forecasts:
all key administrators
(82)
Special Aspects of
Revenue Planning
Planning time-frame:
- year by months
- month by days
Periodicity by other FBRAs:
quarterly
Error margin:
+/- 15%
Fixed deadlines for payment of key taxes

8. Cash planning FOR federal budget expenditure
FORECAST OF FEDERAL BUDGET EXPENDITURE CASH DISBURSEMENTS FOR THE CURRENT FINANCIAL YEAR
Planning time-frame:
year by months
month by days
Name of Indicator
Budget allocations for FB expenditure
Annual forecast, total
January
....
Dec
Estimated underuse of budget allocations
Expenditure for personnel to ensure fulfillment of functions by federal government agencies, public institutions
Procurement of goods, works and services for public purposes
Social security and other payments
Capital investments in real estate under federal property
Inter-budgetary transfers
Offering subsidies to federal budget, autonomous institutions and other non-commercial organizations
Servicing public debt of the Russian Federation
Other budget allocations
Total federal budget expenditure cash disbursements
Who presents forecasts:
all key SUs (97)
Special Aspects of
Expenditure Planning
Federal Budget Cash Execution Progress Evaluation
Limitations:
expenditure should not exceed EFCs
Error margin:
+/- 15%
Periodicity :
monthly
Currency:
rubles
foreign currency

9. Cash planning FOR federal budget deficit financing sources
FORECAST OF CASH RECEIPTS AND CASH DISBURSEMENTS FOR SOURCES OF FINANCING FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT
Planning time-frame:
year by months
month by days
Name of Indicator
Annual amount, total
Annual forecast, total
January
....
Dec
Estimated deviation
Cash disbursments for sources of internal financing of federal budget deficit
Cash receipts for sources of internal financing of federal budget deficit
Cash disbursements for sources of external financing of federal budget deficit
Cash receipts for sources of external financing of federal budget deficit
NOTE: Decrease in sources of financing federal budget deficit by non-cash transactions
NOTE: Increase in sources of financing federal budget deficit by non-cash transactions
Who presents forecasts:
key FSAs (3)
Special Aspects of
Planning
Sources of Financing Federal Budget Deficit
Federal Budget Cash Execution Progress Evaluation
Periodicity :
monthly
Error margin:
+/- 15%
Currency:
rubles
foreign currency

10. Federal Mandatory Health Insurance Fund RF Social Security Fund
FORECAST OF CASH FLOW IN ACCOUNTS OF
PUBLIC NON-BUDGETARY FUNDS
Federal Mandatory Health Insurance Fund
RF Pension Fund
RF Social Security Fund
Indicators
cash receipts, cash disbursements (minimum set of indicators)
In prospect*
Planning time-frame
year by months;
month by days
Periodicity of
forecast producing
monthly
Planning scope
throughout entire network
Legal ground: Russian MoF's recommendation
* Currently, expert evaluation by the Federal Treasury
Forecasting annual cash flow with details by months
Name of Indicator
Row Code
January
February
March
Total Q I
...
Total 6 months
Total 9 months
December
Total year
CASH RECEIPTS BY REVENUES - total
Of which:
Inter-budgetary transfers from the federal budget
Other inter-budgetary transfers
CASH DISBURSEMENTS BY EXPENDITURES - total
Inter-budgetary transfers to the federal budget
Opening balances
Closing balances

11. Final Cash Planning Algorithm
1. Initial Cash Plan
Cash planning of federal budget funds
2. Forecasts of Public Non-Budgetary Funds
3. Forecasts of Other Funds
Final Cash Plan
Consolidation and analysis of forecasts of the RF Pension Fund, RF Social Security Fund and expert evaluation of the Mandatory Health Insurance Fund by the Federal Treasury
Federal Treasury's expert evaluation of other funds
Consolidation of all cash flows and cash plan development

12. Integrated CASH FLOW ANALYSIS AND MONITORING
Cash Plan
TSA cash flow forecast
Timely information on budget execution and TSA balance management
Information on revenues administrated by the Federal Tax Authority and Federal Customs Authority
Financial forecast of federal budget execution and TSA balance management
Key "derived" documents
Key cash flows by days (period t+90)
Analysis of actual forecast implementation:
- by accrued method;
- compared to the same period of previous years
Analysis of actual forecast implementation by types of revenues
Comprehensive budget execution, spending, etc. analysis
Contents
of the document
Update periodicity
twice a day
daily
once a week
once a week

13. EXPENDITURE FINANCING CEILINGS SETTING SPENDING Cash Plan Producing
Cash planning of federal budget execution is the basis for decision-making on expenditure financing ceilings
EXPENDITURE
FINANCING CEILINGS
SETTING
SPENDING
Cash Plan
Producing
Determination of acceptable expenditure limits
Determination of the overall amount
of expenditure cuts
Determination of expenditure financing
ceilings (EFCs)
Approval of EFCs by key SUs in general,
without details according to the
Budget Classification Codes
Spendings within approved EFCs
allocated to key SUs
Control over cash disbursements within EFCs in personal accounts of
budget users

14. Procedure of financing ceilings setting
Forecasts (Key SUs)
Developing framework for EFC setting
Information on TSA balance
Decision made by Russian MoF to set EFCs No
Yes
Other liquidity increase options are possible
(e.g. extended use of sources: securities etc.)
If insufficient liquidity in TSA – EFCs with parallel expenditure cuts
If sufficient liquidity in TSA – EFCs within the declared forecasts

15. Stages of expanding cash planning and forecasting scope
Text
Text
Text
Text
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Preparation (testing)
Commercial
(final)
Piloting
Prototype
Creation of conditions and approval of TSA forecasting preliminary results
Participants: 7 pilot RF constituents
Method: Electronic tables
Note: manual mode
Development of TSA forecasting mechanism and engagement of all participants
Participants:
Federal-level participants,
RF constituent-level participants,
Local-level participants (8 pilot entities),
RF public non-budgetary funds (directorates)
Method: Electronic tables, FT Automated System
Note: manual mode, automated mode
Improvement, approval and trial use of full-scale forecast in TSA (bank account)
Participants:
Federal-level participants,
RF constituent-level participants,
local-level participants,
RF public non-budgetary funds
Territorial public non-budgetary funds
Method: FTAS GIIS "Electronic Budget"
Note: automated mode
Full-scale forecast in TSA (bank account)
Participants: All FT clients
Method: GIIS "Electronic Budget"
Note: automated mode
TSA cash flow forecast

16. TSA forecasting life cycle in prospect
Collection and transmission, processing and storage, update of information
Bank of Russia
Russian MoF
Clients
Treasury of Russia
Preparation of information for optimal decision-making
Targeting results
Information
Forecasting and
targeting
Resources
Technologies
"Big" TSA
Efficient management of TSA balances
FT Automated System
Electronic Budget
Other systems
Staff
Equipment
Single information environment ensuring information security, timeliness of information processing
Ensuring continuous operation

17. Thank you for attention!17 17