1. Upper Gallatin Drought/Water Supply Focus Group
Meeting Topic: Vulnerability Assessment
April 27 10:30-12PM
Big Sky Water & Sewer District Conference Room

3. What is a Vulnerability Assessment?
A tool we can use to organize our thoughts to:
1. Identify impacts
2. Prioritize our watershed’s risk to drought/water supply issues
Answers these questions:
Where are we most vulnerable?
What will happen if we run out of water?
Goal:
Use assessment information to develop strategies that improve resiliency and reduce drought risk (long and short term)
Graphic taken from Drought Resilient Communities webinar training Spring 2016
-Presentation developed by NIDIS (National Integrated Drought Information System) and NDMC staff
Core element to drought management planning

4. Vulnerability Assessment Examples
Example: Zunni Nation Water Use & Drought Risk Matrix Table
Examples taken from Drought Resilient Communities Webinar Training Series (Spring 2016)
Other examples: brainstorming sessions/collaborative discussion, literature reviews, scenario building, gis modeling, proxy indicators

5. SNAPP Framework
Way to conceptualize drought in an ecological sense, connects ecological impacts to human communities
How we interact with our environment
Resource use and management
Physical attributes, climate info
Water demand, land use, local policies
SNAPP: A partnership among National Center Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, The Nature Conservancy, Wildlife Conservation Society, USGS
Science for Nature And People Partnership

6. SNAPP Fr
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7. SNAPP Fr
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This is what we are working towards

8. SNAPP Framework Meteorological Drought
Source: Emily Casey Roundtable Discussion Presentation
Palmer Drought Severity Index: SW MT in severe or extreme drought % of the time since 1895
600 Years of Snowpack History: prolonged and severe drought in the area is chronic

9. SNAPP Framework EXPOSURE Upper Gallatin Landscape Characteristics
Topography: ft
Geography: Alpine valleys draining into Gallatin Canyon
Annual Precipitation: 19” in lower elevations to 61” in higher
Soils: Higher permeability in higher elevations,
Lower elevation soils = low to moderate permeability and susceptibility to erosion
Geology:
Gallatin range: Volcanic rocks
Meadow: Alluvial & glacial deposits
Lone Mountain: Igneous intrusion of dacite porphyry (erosion resistant)
Surface Water: Peak flows can occur early May to late July, average annual peak = 3000 cfs, average annual lows occur in February at 300 cfs
Groundwater: Shallow alluvial (most used for PWS) and bedrock aquifers
Landscape Characteristics
Source: GRTF’s 2012 WRP p 5-6

10. SNAPP Framework
SENSITIVITY/ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Upper Gallatin Ecological Characteristics
Vegetation: Coniferous forest, grasslands, shrublands, willow and aspen groves in riparian areas
Wildlife: Black and grizzly bear, elk, bighorn sheep, mountain goat, mule and white-tailed deer, moose, bald eagles, peregrine falcon, osprey, magpie, fox, gray wolf, mountain lion, wolverine, pika
Aquatic life
Native: Westslope cutthroat trout, mountain whitefish, longnose dace, longnose sucker, mountain sucker, white sucker, mottled sculpin
Introduced: Brook, brown, golden, rainbow trout
Invasive: Didymo (rock snot)
Ecological Characteristics
Source: GRTF 2012 WRP, pg 7

11. SNAPP Framework EXPOSURE Montana’s Anthropogenic Climate Change
Montana Water Trends & Projections
Between :
Snowpack has declined, especially since 1980s
Earlier spring runoff
Streamflow is influenced by warming & climate variability (ex. El Nino)
Future
Snowpack will continue to decline, with earlier snowmelt
Streamflow may increase, especially in spring/early summer
Late-summer water availability will decrease
Droughts will be exacerbated by warming
Demands for groundwater will increase
Anthropogenic Climate Change
Source: Brad Bauer Climate 101 Presentation, MT Climate Assessment

12. SNAPP Framework EXPOSURE Upper Gallatin Land Use
Westfork Watershed Land Ownership
Map: GRTF WRP 2012: majority of Big Sky area is privately owned
Bullets: from 2011 Capital Improvement Plan for Big Sky/ Gallatin Canyon

13. SNAPP Framework EXPOSURE Water Use Water & Sewer District
Provides service to 4385 SFE in Meadow & Mtn Village
Average use: 200 gpd/SFE, in summer
Need to increase to 9000 SFE in ~2044 (build out)
Water Rights: 3495 gpm, AF in Meadow & Mtn
Source: Groundwater, most dense service provided by Meadow Village aquifer via 12 PWS wells
Private/Smaller Systems: YC, Spanish Peaks, Moonlight, Ramshorn, Firelights
Source: Groundwater
840 Private wells in Big Sky/Gallatin Canyon
Demographics
Population year round residents, as many as visitors on peak winter/summer days
Growth rate: 2.4%
Build out estimated by 2044
About 3561 jobs, tourism and recreation based economy
most jobs in lodging, services, and retail/commercial
Biggest employers: Big Sky Resort, YC -bulk of employees commute from Bozeman area
Water Use
-water and sewer data from Source Capacity Plan (2015) executive summary, water rights
-gwic database
Demographics
-Ron Edwards, source capacity plan update
-2011 capital improvement plan for Big Sky/Gallatin Canyon

14. SNAPP Framework SENSITIVITY/ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
Upper Gallatin Natural Resources Management
View BSSWSF ecological health of the river page for full list
Forests
Custer-Gallatin Forest Plan, Gallatin Community Wildfire Protection Plan
River
Gallatin River Task Force mission & projects serve to protect the Upper Gallatin Watershed
Restoration & conservation projects
Long term monitoring, continuous monitoring sites
AIS Clean Drain Dry Educational Campaign
Wild & Scenic Initiative on Gallatin, Taylor Fork, & Porcupine
Groundwater
MBMG Groundwater Study
Riparian Areas
Westfork streambank restoration projects
Wetlands
Future mapping projects
Open Space
BSCO trails
Conservation easements
BSSWSF ecological health of the river resources

15. SNAPP Fr
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16. Impacts Review: Ecological
Drought Impact Reports by County
Common Drought Impacts
Reduced snowpack levels
Low streamflows
Stress on fisheries and wildlife
Loss of viable habitat
Increased wildfire duration, area burned, and intensity
Increased invasive species
Fishing restrictions
Poor water quality
Public health risks from air quality
Reduced quality of recreational opportunities
Most mentioned impact from Information Sharing meeting: Wildfire
1988 Yellowstone Fires
Late 90s & Early 2000s
Also: Fishing bans, evacuation notices (livestock and residents), restrictions on highway turnout use

17. Impacts: Ecosystem Services
Impact of Climate Change on MT Outdoor Economy (2015)
Big Sky’s economy is based on tourism and recreation
Virtually all businesses are impacted by our natural resources
Snowpack and streamflows
2016 Yellowstone visitors contributed $680.4 million to the Park’s gateway communities in MT and WY
(April 2017 Bozeman Daily Chronicle Article)
ITRR: Institute of Tourism and Recreation Research
Overall 26% decline in job opportunities
Overall 26% loss in labor earnings lost to MT employees -->42,000 people employed by tourism industry

18. Drought Awareness Survey: 50 responses from local community
“Drought can impact not only obvious recreational opportunities such as fishing, rafting, and golf, but also less obvious ones such as mountain biking, hiking, and horseback riding. It can be a huge impact on overall forest health. I am very concerned.”
“I am concerned that the area will not be prepared, especially if we have unusually long drought periods.”
“It’s water that makes our world go around up here, it affects everything!”

19. Additional Vulnerability Information
Gallatin County Emergency Management Plan
Drought risk: Overall Moderate risk
Moderate probability of major disaster
Moderate probability of property impact
Low probability of population impact
High probability of economic impact
Moderate future development impact
Madison County Emergency Management Plan
Drought Risk: Overall Moderate-High Risk
Up to D4 Magnitude
Economic impacts
Weeks-months
County-wide
Highest risk areas: Rural, ag areas
Potential size: Valley to county-wide
Speed of onset: Weeks to months
Duration: Months to years
Priority: Moderate