1. Kharif 2018-19 Crops Outlook G. Chandrashekhar
IMC-ERTF jointly with Economic Policy Committee ‘Inflation Outlook’ May 25, 2018
Kharif Crops Outlook
G. Chandrashekhar

2. Crop Production Trend and Target (Production Mln ton; Area Mln ha)
Crop Target A P A P Rice CrGrn – Maize Pulses Cotton

3. Crop Production Trend and Target (Production Mln ton; Area Mln ha)
Crop Target A P A P Oilseed –Soy –Gnut SuCane (source: GoI, Agri Min)

4. Where are the risks?
Growers across India angry; some crops sell below MSP; weak procurement (pulses); huge cane arrears; pest attacks (cotton)
Expect fall in pulses and cotton acreage; likely increase in oilseeds;
Sugar: data not in sync (cause for worry)
Wheat: is Agri Min estimate correct?
Chana: overestimated

5. Weather Unseasonal rains in April; crop damage not factored in;
SW monsoon forecast: ‘normal’; but temporal and spatial distribution critical
No motivating factor for growers to spend on inputs, agronomy
MSP not announced as yet

6. Other risks Rising crude oil prices to push production cost up
Depreciating rupee to make imports (edible oil) expensive; (reduce duty?)
Are we ready for higher food prices?
Political implication?

7. Thank You
G. Chandrashekhar Economic Advisor IMC + Director ERTF Phone: