1. Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making
16th- 17th October 2008
Backcasting for sustainability in the Netherlands: impacts after ten years, policy relevance and a methodological framework
Jaco Quist
Delft University of Technology
Fac Technology, Policy, Management
16-17 October 2008

2. 1. Today’s presentation OUTLINE
Backcasting for Sustainability in the Netherlands
1. Today’s presentation
OUTLINE
Foresighting, Backcasting & methodological framework
Research topic & conceptual framework
Cases and analysis
Conclusions & policy relevance & recommendations
Closing remark
16-17 October 2008

3. 1. Backcasting: introduction
Backcasting: Create a desirable sustainable future first before looking back from that future how it could have been achieved and planning initial steps how to move towards that future.
Backcasting: Particularly useful in case of complex ‘wicked’ problems that include dominant trends; when market-based solutions are insufficient; a need for a major change; long time horizons allow strong alternatives (Dreborg ’96)
Backcasting: Intervention approach related to Constructive TA, aiming at anticipation, reflexivity and learning (Schot 2001), but also criticised for lacking these.
16-17 October 2008

4. Explore alternative futures Assess feasibility of desirable future
Present
Future
Forecasting
Scenarios
Backcasting
Predict most
likely future
Explore alternative futures
Assess feasibility of desirable future
16-17 October 2008

5. Backcasting: from vision to action
TIME
Future-
Vision
Backcasting
ECOEFFICIENCY
Milestones
Explicitly normative
Participatory
System oriented,
Desired futures & changes (action-oriented)
Combines process, design, analysis
Transdisciplinary
Helpful if institutions / rule system lack
16-17 October 2008

6. Review backcasting: findings
Considerable variety in elaboration, participation, methods, number of steps, goals, types of problems addressed
Core feature is normative / desirable future vision; part of family of related approaches (like TM & roadmapping)
An overall methodological framework can be determined, using Robinson (1990), TNS (Holmberg ’98), STD, SusHouse
Backcasting less well elaborated in terms of methods
Framework combines orientation, analysis, design, process. It is multi- / trans-disciplinary.
16-17 October 2008

7. Backcasting: methodological framework
16-17 October 2008

8. 2. Research problem: impact of bc
Different varieties in backcasting: Energy, Natural Step, STD, SusHouse, COOL, Canada, Sweden
Participatory backcasting experiments have been completed in NL: vision, analysis, (action) agenda
Sometimes considerable follow-up, not always: WHY?
How does follow-up relate to system innovation theory?
16-17 October 2008

9. Backcasting and impact
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10. Backcasting: conceptual framework I
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11. Backcasting: analytical framework I
Participation
1 Heterogeneity, Degree (2) & Type (3) of involvement, (4) Influence
Vision aspects (building on Dierkes et al ’96)
I Guidance (where to go), II Orientation (what to do), III Compete
Higher order learning (using Brown et al 2003)
1 shifts in problem def, 2 shifts in approaches/priorities, 3 joint learning
Backcasting framework (I) & settings (II):
I: 1 interdisc, 2, steps, 3 methods, 4 demands
II: 1 insti protect, 2 vision champion, main goal, type of management
Networks (building on Hakansson)
1 Activities, 2 Actors, 3 Resources
Institutionalisation (1) & institutional resistance (2)
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12. 3. Backcasting: evaluation 3x nutrition
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13. Backcasting cases: 3x nutrition & food
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14. Backcasting analyzed: 3x nutrition & food
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15. Backcasting cases: spin-off & follow-up
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16. Spin-off analyzed: 3x nutrition & food
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17. 4. Empirical conclusions I
Al three backcasting experiments successful in broad participation, visions, higher order learning and follow-up agendas.
This does not guarantee follow-up and spin-off; the extent of follow-up and spin-off depends on various internal and external factors.
Follow-up and spin-off materializes in networks consisting of activities, actors, and resources; it involves old and new actors.
Future visions are important in follow-up and spin-off; they provide guidance (where to go) and orientation (what to do)
Future and show both stability and flexibility, which relates to entries, clusters, domains.
Follow-up and spin-off is on a niche level: seeds for change.
Some institutionalization, but also institutional resistance
16-17 October 2008

18. Empirical conclusions II
Enabling internal factors
Constraining internal factors
High degree of stakeholder involvement
& **small groups much influence -
Diversity in types of stakeholder involvement
Single vision backcasting experiment
Multiple visions backcasting experiment
High degrees of guidance and orientation of the future vision
Institutional protection
Presence of vision champions
Strong focus on follow-up and implementation
Strong focus on academic achievements
Joint and congruent learning
16-17 October 2008

19. External factors: examples
Preliminary:
Factors from outside the socio-technical system
Factors from events & trends within socio-technical system (diffuse influence)
Factors relating to anticipations and expectations in systems and spin-off
16-17 October 2008

20. Policy relevance: some suggestions
Framework useful for transition monitoring
Institutional protection important
Experimentation in niches with visions and new rule systems useful and important (learning)
Process facilitation of backcasting important
Stakeholder enthusiasm and opportunities crucial
‘Facilitating’ policies are important for follow-up
Long-term: after 10 years still niches -> patience
External developments sometimes crucial
Broader applicability to other complex problems
16-17 October 2008

21. Some recommendations Do’s and don’ts for organisers & use of framework
Developers to extend repertoire & ‘use’ professionals
Initiators/commissioners should extend support & facilitation till long after completion
Researchers should (i) evaluate and compare better; (ii) enhance theoretical embedding on impacts; & (iii) further methodology development
16-17 October 2008

22. Do’s & Don’ts for organisers of BCE
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23. 5. Closing remark Repository.tudelft.nl www.eburon.nl
16-17 October 2008