1. Variant Projections

2. Welsh Government Variant Projections
Often mistaken for confidence interval by users
Add confidence interval explanation
Main purpose is to provide population growth (or reduction) using different trends
High Population
Low Population
No Migration
Ten Year Migration

3. Why produce variant projection?
“The more I learn, the more I realise how much I don’t understand” Albert Einstein
It’s impossible to predict every eventuality
Even after major changes occur in a country its hard to measure the effect/ramifications of these policies.

4. The issue of using the census as our base in projections
Arguably the most useful source of data in Britain, but for how long…
The emergence of administrative data sources

5. The Annual Population Survey (APS)
The Annual Population Survey (APS) is a continuous household survey, covering the UK. The topics covered include employment and unemployment, as well as housing, ethnicity, religion, health and education.
The sample size is approximately 320,000 respondents
Has the largest coverage of any household survey and allows the generation of statistics for small geographical areas
Uses data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS)
The data sets consist of 12 months of survey data and are broken down on a quarterly basis
The first APS data set was published for the period January to December 2004
The APS is not a stand-alone survey; it uses data combined from 2 waves of the main Labour Force Survey (LFS), collected on a local sample boost.
These boosts are sponsored by the Department for Pensions (DWP), Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS), the Welsh Government and the Scottish Government.

6. Creating a more accurate variant projection
The membership rates are based on the 2001 and 2011 censuses
These rates underpin the Household projections allocation of individuals to certain households

7. Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015
The Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act is about improving the social, economic, environmental and cultural well-being of Wales.
Wales faces a number of challenges now and in the future, such as climate change, poverty, health inequalities and jobs and growth. To give current and future generations a good quality of life we need to think about the long term impact of the decisions we make. This law will make sure that our public sector does this.
Thus going forward more accurate projections will be required as well as the methodology we use.

8. The Future
Research and production into the viability of using APS data in projections
Aim to communicate more effectively the use of different projections
What projections actually mean and when to use variant projections
Work with other departments to fully develop methodology
Contact: Matthew Davies
Any questions?