1. Challenges and Changes
The Next Chapter in the Health Reform Debate
November 30, 2010
Joseph R. Antos, Ph.D.
Wilson H. Taylor Scholar in Health Care
and Retirement Policy
American Enterprise Institute

2. Health programs drive the federal deficit
Federal spending as a percentage of GDP
Source: Author’s calculations based on CBO, “The Long-Term Budget Outlook,” December 2007.

3. The new Exchange subsidy
Source: CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook, June 2010

4. Is this sustainable? Medicare/GDP (%) Prior Law Alternative
11.18%
Prior Law
10.70%
Alternative
6.37%
Current Law
Source:

5. The fourth health “entitlement”
$ Billions
Tax breaks for other health spending
Tax breaks for private insurance
Source: JCT, Tax Expenditures for Health Care, July 30, 2008